Dateline: February 29 2032
The age of extraction has served our civilisation well. We began by taming wild grasses and domesticating animals, to provide us with the things we needed, like food, clothing, and energy. Then we discovered mineral resources like coal and iron, and agriculture and industry blossomed. Extraction and exploitation of natural resources became the primary means of production, and spawned a virtuous circle of technology innovation, scientific discovery, and resource development.
Our ability to harness resources and develop new technologies at an ever-increasing speed has enabled our species to dominate nature and provide a higher standard of living for billions of people — all thanks to extraction. We have an abundance of materials and chemicals, and technology has allowed us to displace natural products like wood and leather with synthetics like plastic and steel.
But that same disruptive, exponential boom in technology is causing the demise of extraction. Not because of a lack of resources — exploration continues to reveal new reserves — but because of a lack of need. We have already developed more efficient — and more socially acceptable — ways of producing animal protein than slaughter, and novel materials, constructed at the atomic scale, like graphene and 2D-polymers, are making aluminium and plastic look positively prehistoric.
There are still rare-earths and unique elements like helium, for which we rely on extraction, but eventually we’ll be able to make superior synthetic molecules to replace them. Whichever way you look at it, the age of extraction is dying, and will ultimately be replaced by something new.
And with the death of extraction will come the disruption of industries, displacement of businesses, and possibly the reinvention of entire economic systems. Will your business survive, and thrive?
- Published: 24 Feb 2022
From supercycle to spin cycle
Commodities crash as circular economy kicks in
Dateline: July 30 2031
It was common cause that all global growth, all added economic value, came ultimately from two sources — agriculture and mining. Even manufacturing relied on raw material inputs, and everything else was just supporting activity. But that was before the digital age.
Now services account for 80% of all economic output, virgin mining is declining fast, and agriculture has been totally disrupted by hi-tech food factories. And manufacturing has changed completely. It’s all about recycling and upcycling, and raw materials barely exist.
Gone are the days of extracting vast quantities of underground ore and shipping them halfway around the world to be made into generic products; then shipping them back again to be sold to consumers, and then finally discarded. That was the model that fuelled the “supercycle” boom in commodities a decade ago. Mass production was a simple exercise — heat, beat and treat.
That was unsustainable, and now it’s unnecessary, and uneconomic. Steel and aluminium can be almost infinitely recycled, and mining companies have had to pivot to urban mining for new energy metals like lithium, nickel and cobalt. Mining the e-waste dumps, solar panel scrapyards and used battery depots is proving to be amazingly profitable. And it can all be done above ground.
Likewise, manufacturers don’t want slabs of steel and ingots of titanium; the preferred feedstocks for precision printing are bulk supplies of nanoparticles, specialised ‘inks’ for their multistation 3D printing machines. And carbon composites, graphene, and biosynthetic materials have replaced steel, copper, and concrete in industries ranging from construction to automobiles.
Yes, the “supercycle” is over for base commodities; but the circular economy is revving up. It’s the start of the “spin cycle’.
- Published: 29 Jul 2021
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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