The 2022 Kenyan election is unique in many ways. It marks the first time since the Daniel Arap Moi era that neither an incumbent president nor a candidate from the country’s largest ethnic community, the Kikuyu, is a major contender for president.
Bizarrely, the current vice-president, William Ruto, is running as the de facto opposition candidate, while President Uhuru Kenyatta’s long-time rival and former prime minister, Raila Odinga, now has the incumbent’s explicit endorsement for the top job.
These soap opera-esque plots and subplots have created a climate of drama and intrigue, suggesting the outcome is far from a foregone conclusion. Indeed, as Kenya heads into the final stretch before voting day on August 9, investors are still trying to determine where the smart money lies.
Odinga has momentum, a reality supported by the fact that polling data has been tipped in his favour since December 2021. But Odinga’s lead has been thin, with Ruto typically falling within the margin of error. This has made for one of the most competitive ballots yet, with three factors likely to determine whether he can defy the odds and trump the perennial contender.
The first is Kenya’s ethnic arithmetic and youth bulge. Despite efforts to minimise its role, ethnicity remains a main driver of voting preferences in Kenya. Consequently, political aspirants must target the largest groups, such as the Kikuyu and the Luhya, or establish alliances and narratives that appeal to a plurality of Kenya’s ethnic groups.
A predominant subtext during this electoral cycle has been the Kikuyu question. As noted, Kenya’s largest ethnic tribe is without a presidential candidate. Though some argue that this may limit the propensity for violence — alongside constitutional reforms undertaken in 2010 — it has still introduced an element of uncertainty to the electoral equation.
Theoretically, the arithmetic is tilted towards Odinga. The former prime minister has the Kikuyu patriarch, Uhuru Kenyatta, and the incumbent Jubilee party in his camp. Kenyatta and his party are tried and tested winners, having swept the 2013 and 2017 elections. Odinga’s choice of running mate has added to this apparent advantage. By choosing Martha Karua, Odinga has satisfied three strategic priorities: Karua is a Kikuyu from the important Mount Kenya region, she is a woman, and she has a strong anti-corruption track record. Furthermore, Odinga has coalesced strong leaders from other groupings under his Azimio la Umoja coalition, which comprises 29 parties and broad representation of ethnic blocs.
By contrast, Ruto’s choice of running mate, Rigathi Gachagua, is tainted by allegations of corruption, which have only added to the reputational concerns surrounding the deputy. That said, Ruto will be hoping certain individuals within the ranks of his alliance can plaster over Gachagua’s shortcomings. This includes Kirinyaga county governor Anne Waiguru, who previously defeated Karua in the race for Kirinyaga’s governorship, and renowned Luhya patriarchs Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula.
Another demographic consideration is Kenya’s youth bulge. Much talk has been made about voters aged 18-35 being the swing factor in this election — similar to the “youthquake” that propelled Hakainde Hichilema to victory in Zambia in 2021. The argument is that the youth are more likely to deviate from ethnic and generational lines and to vote based on issues and class.
While the youth may have more fluid political allegiances, they have proved apathetic to democratic processes. Youths account for almost 40% of the registered electorate in the upcoming ballot, down from roughly 42% in 2017. This is a worry for Ruto, who based his campaign on the backing of young Kenyans. Voter apathy and an older electorate favour Odinga. The septuagenarian is viewed as an elder statesman and safe pair of hands for a fragile Kenyan state. An Odinga presidency also plays to the romantic ideal of having the sons of Kenya’s two founding fathers, Jomo Kenyatta and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, succeed one another.
Nevertheless, the deputy has not been idle. Where he lacks in reputation and romantic appeal he has compensated for through guile and cult of personality, crafting a hustler narrative that has been resonant across various sections of the population. Whether Ruto can move enough of the Kikuyu and the youth to triumph over Odinga seems a tough ask, even for the indefatigable deputy.
The second factor is the economy, which is perhaps the only area where Ruto has a definite upper hand. The prevailing sentiment is that Kenya’s economy is not working for ordinary citizens. Though East Africa’s largest market has grown upwards of 5% in the past decade and attained middle-income status, locals have complained of a lack of trickle down.
Infrastructure-led growth has also been criticised for simply producing foreign-funded and foreign-built white elephants at the cost of local economies and rapid debt accumulation. Debt has nearly doubled since 2012, while debt service costs consume half of Kenya’s revenue.
More recently, dollar shortages and higher food and energy costs have hit the import-orientated economy hard in recent months. In April motorists faced rare, nationwide fuel shortages after the government failed to pay subsidies owed to oil marketing companies. In addition, Kenya is grappling with the consequences of its longest drought in decades, which has devastated crops, decimated cattle herds and left about 3.5-million people in 23 counties in need of food relief.
Ruto has tactfully instrumentalised disillusionment with this status quo. With his hustler narrative he has tapped into grievances with Kenya’s economy, which he has placed at the feet of the establishment or “dynasty” associated with the Odinga and Kenyatta families. All the while he has managed to disassociate himself from these failings despite being an insider in the past decade.
Odinga, on the other hand, has not only been painted with the same brushstrokes as Kenyatta but his platform has been widely dismissed as stale and uninspiring.
Nevertheless, Odinga has the third and most decisive factor in his favour — the state and its vast financial political, economic and security resources. Both Odinga and Ruto are all too familiar with the tacit and direct power of the state to determine electoral outcomes. In each of his previous four runs for the presidency Odinga has been defeated by incumbents or their handpicked successors.
The state’s financial resources have already been mobilised in Odinga’s favour. In late July Kenyatta introduced a slew of subsidies under a fifth stimulus package. These halved the price of maize and froze an increase in the price of fuel, easing two of Kenyans’ most pressing socioeconomic concerns and giving a jolt to Odinga’s campaign. On voting day there is a concern that the state’s security apparatus could be used to obstruct voting activity in Ruto strongholds, ultimately benefiting Odinga.
On balance, the cards are seemingly stacked against Ruto, with most signs pointing to a victory for Odinga. But the intricacies of Kenyan politics and Ruto’s nous suggest it would be foolish to write him off. Indeed, it would not be the first time he has managed to outfox his adversaries and silence his doubters.
• Gopaldas is a director at Signal Risk and faculty member at GIBS Business School. Ndhlovu is a senior analyst at Signal Risk.
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