What could SA, and the rest of Africa, possibly get from Russia? What we do know is that measures by Ukraine’s allies to coerce countries like SA to side with them could end up having the opposite effect.
International relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor complained during a seminar at her department in Pretoria last week that diplomats in some Nato countries are dealing with SA — and Africa in general — in “very patronising ways”.
When the resolution condemning Russia’s “aggression in Ukraine” was passed days after that country’s illegal invasion of its neighbour, SA objected. Even though they agreed Russia’s actions were illegal, the feeling was that the words of the resolution “could drive a deeper wedge between the parties rather than contributing to a resolution to the conflict”, SA’s representative to the UN, Mathu Joyini, said at the time.
SA instead also wanted an acknowledgment of Russia’s security concerns, saying this could have been a starting point for peace negotiations. It’s difficult to say from a distance whether SA diplomats went about this the wrong way or whether the sponsors of the resolution really did refuse to listen.
In Pandor’s version, the resolution was “drafted by countries in a certain room and then they give it to you to consider for support”. When SA tried to propose changes, “the exact words of the drafter [were], ‘you take it or leave it’”, she said. So SA abstained. “As a country, how are you expected to respond in the affirmative to such a resolution?” Pandor wanted to know. “I can’t accept it being dealt with in such a way.” Only about half of Africa’s countries supported the resolution.
In the AU there is still a feeling that there are more than two perspectives on this conflict. An AU official considered the lifting of the Odesa port blockade for the export of grain a few weeks ago as a small victory for those who want to resolve the conflict through talks, as commission chair Moussa Faki Mahamat and AU chair and Senegalese president Macky Sall both played a role in making the negotiations happen.
The view from Nato differed. A high-ranking official said in a background briefing at the time that it believed actual peace negotiations are still far off. Some African countries are concerned they might be punished for wanting to retain a neutral stance, which critics say amounts to support for Russia. SA officials say the West is talking about squeezing countries and companies that choose to retain business relations with Russia.
US representative at the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield was overt at a media conference last week: “I would caution that countries should not engage with countries that have been sanctioned by the US.” In her country, the Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa Act looks set to pass through the Senate soon. This law could provide for the extension of sanctions.
A leaked document overseen by the head of the EU delegation to the AU, Birgitte Markussen, and reported on by the news site Devex in July, advances a similar idea. In it diplomats suggest less “lecturing” and a more “transactional approach” to securing support from African countries for the Ukraine side. “Financial engagement” — including aid — in Africa should be tied to the countries’ willingness to work “based on common values and a joint vision”.
Amid these threats, Russia’s charm offensive on the continent continues. It needs friends and trading partners. African countries with high levels of unemployment and inflation are also reasoning that they need the business. In Sandton, 70 SA companies met seven of their Russian counterparts under the auspices of the JSC Russian Export Center last month. The focus was on opportunities in infrastructure, engineering and agriculture. According to the Russian embassy it was a resumption of business as usual following the Covid-19 lockdown. Another meeting is planned for November in the field of information and communication technologies.
The extent of general disruption for Russia is evident in how it had to postpone the Russia-Africa summit to 2023, despite efforts to accommodate it by moving the venue from St Petersburg to Addis Ababa. Russian ambassador to SA Ilya Rogachev admits that Russia feels the impact of the sanctions but insists “the economic ‘blitzkrieg’ against our country has failed” because it is also hurting European energy markets. He believes it’s “impossible to isolate a country like Russia”.
The US has excluded Russia from the SWIFT international payment system. In response, Russia is now finding alternative local ways of making payments to those it is still trading with, and reducing the dollar and euro in mutual trade with Africa. “We treat the situation as providing new opportunities,” Rogachev says, “both for Russian and SA businesses.”
Instead of considering Europe and North America as their primary export markets, Russia is now focusing on Africa, he says. But the potential for extended sanctions pose a risk for African countries that choose to engage.
The other risk for the continent is not being clear what it wants out of the engagement, says Gustavo de Carvalho, senior researcher on Russia-Africa ties at the SA Institute for International Affairs. African countries “could be used as a pawn [in the geopolitical disputes], which is the opposite of what African states would want”, he says.
Military equipment might be high on the list of what Africa wants from Russia, because about half of its arms come from there. Weapons also featured in Pandor’s explanation for why SA feels loyal to Russia. In her explanation to Western diplomats who ask why SA cannot support “the struggle for Ukraine” in the same way that they supported the struggle against apartheid, Pandor says: “I do wish to remind you that the countries in Europe didn’t give us arms, but the Russians did.”
Complicating matters further is the fact that both Russia and Ukraine were in fact part of the USSR at the time, but the point Pandor wanted to make is that African countries are sovereign states with agency, and their voices should be heard too.
• Du Plessis is a freelance journalist specialising in SA politics and foreign policy.
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