It was former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld who said history had taught mankind that weakness is provocative — it entices people into doing things they otherwise would not do. His logic was that when people perceive weakness in a leader or state they are emboldened to act against them.
Rumsfeld was, of course, arguing for the unjust invasion of Iraq by the US in search of those elusive weapons of mass destruction. But that’s not where I am going with this.
Here at home over the past five years or so, we have seen the gradual weakening of the state and its main actors. We are saddled with an uninspired, rudderless and uninterested head of state in the form of President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Even if every inch of SA’s vast land were a page, every living soul a writer and every drop of water in the ocean were ink, it would still not be enough to do justice to the weakness and incompetence of the Ramaphosa administration.
Most South Africans have by now realised there is an unbearable vacuum in political leadership stretching from Tuynhuys to Mahlamba Ndlopfu. Ramaphosa’s indecisiveness has become chronic, as is his penchant to abdicate his responsibilities to summits, advisory stokvels and frankly, the heavens above.
Ironically, Mahlamba Ndlopfu means “new dawn” in Tsonga. Yet under Ramaphosa it has been a long, dreary night, with dawn only a distant possibility — despite his promises (among many others he has failed to keep) to usher in a new dawn of leadership following the “nine wasted years” under Jacob Zuma. His weakness as a leader is no longer a family secret — it is glaring for the whole world to see.
Enter US ambassador to SA Reuben Brigety. Armed with a bowtie and with cameras flashing, it was showtime for the diplomat last week. Brigety seized the moment as would a boxer when they see their opponent on the ropes.
Brigety saw it fit to address the media in his host country to scold SA for aiding Russia with weapons of war in its unrelenting offensive against Ukraine.
He forgot the little matter of providing evidence of his consequential allegations. But proof is not needed when you're dealing with a weak opponent, and Brigety knows this. The entire world does.
What was Ramaphosa’s response to this unprecedented event? He retreated to his safety zone, ordering an inquiry to investigate Brigety’s claims. This response confirmed to all that he is a president who doesn’t know what is happening in the administration he leads, or pretends to lead. Nothing new there.
Brigety understood his audience well. He knew this administration's disastrous performance had turned public sentiment negative, to the extent we would not recognise the wrongfulness of his actions. A diplomat representing a world powerhouse accusing our country of criminality, without backing this with evidence.
And the SA public bought into it, demanding the accused self-incriminate and letting Brigety off his responsibility of providing evidence for his far-reaching allegations against a sovereign state. Suddenly, the burden of proof is on SA to prove its innocence. The joke is on us.
This is the second incident in quick succession where Washington has shown its contempt for Pretoria. In 2022, under Brigety’s leadership, the US embassy sent Sandton, SA’s corporate capital, into a frenzy by issuing a warning of an imminent terror attack.
This, too, the powers that be in Pretoria learnt through media reports. Brigety has been in the country for long enough to know the weakness of this administration. Its lax approach to both domestic and foreign issues can be seen and felt.
Sensing weakness
There is a reason the US embassy is breaking every rule in diplomacy rule book. The Americans sense the weakness of the SA state; that it is a country struggling to be flexible in its foreign policy.
As Washington Post columnist Fareed Zakaria argued in March, the US’s unipolar status has corrupted the country’s foreign policy elite. He stressed that US policy is often an exercise in making demands and issuing threats and condemnations, and there is little effort to understand the other side.
Trying to force countries to bend to its will or face the repercussions has weakened US influence around the world. The so-called leader of the free world now wants to lead by coercion, using the enormous power of its purse to make sovereign states kowtow. How the mighty have fallen.
The US is also failing to adapt to the rise in influence of China and Russia in Africa. The country’s foreign policy is at a crossroads. It is allowing the rise of China and Russia’s influence in Africa. By expecting African states to show fawning gratitude rather than treating them as equals, the Americans are missing the mark.
The US’s failure to stymie the rise of its foes is not SA’s problem. What is our problem is a domestic political leadership that doesn’t know when it is time to ditch relationships that don’t serve the national interest.
The cold fact is that the US and EU hold all the aces, and the assistance rendered by the Soviet Union to the ANC in the liberation struggle is of no present value.
• Khumalo is Business Day companies and markets editor.
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