Dateline: 2029
Leadership of the urban mobility market is up in the air — literally. Since megacities like New York accepted the fact that there are better alternatives to limos and helicopters for on demand urban travel, it has been a race to establish a dominant position in this high-flying industry.
The top contenders are new to aviation, compared to the established aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus. Just like Tesla reinvented the automobile without any legacy auto baggage, Archer Aviation started with zero aircraft experience, and designed its air taxi from first principles. The result was a sleek four-passenger craft that flies purely on battery power, called “Midnight”.
Likewise, Joby Aviation was spawned from a start-up that designed innovative consumer products. Its air taxi, though different to Archer’s, also has capacity for four passengers and a pilot, and made the first electric flight in New York City in 2023. Since then, both companies have entered production and achieved Federal Aviation Administration certification. They’re both listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Now the race is on, and both Joby and Archer are tying up deals with cities, airlines, and base operators — suppliers of terminal facilities for private jets and small operators. And just like electric cars, high-powered charging stations are key to making electric air taxis a commercial success.
Let’s spare a thought for those who haven’t succeeded in getting their passenger drones to take off in a big way. From almost a hundred concepts, start-ups, and prototypes, only a handful remain. First casualties were the so-called “transformer” flying cars, that were designed to both ride on the roads and fly in the sky. That was unworkable, as robust, roadworthy hardware is just too heavy and clumsy to make a safe, reliable plane. A few exotic examples exist, but they are billionaires’ toys, not everyday products.
Others that struggled to get traction were designed like drones, with only rotors for lift, drastically limiting their payload and range, as vertical take-off, hover, and landing uses the most power, and quickly drains the batteries. And if you’re going to use jet turbines instead of batteries, you lose the advantage of quiet flight, that makes air taxis so much better than helicopters.
Better battery tech has helped Archer and Joby to achieve viable operations in terms of payload, range, and turnaround, without compromising safety. But the inclusion of an aerodynamic wing, and tilting rotors to switch from vertical to forward flight, make all the difference for high-speed cruising at moderate altitudes. Lift provided by the wing not only saves the batteries’ energy, it also adds another safety factor in the form of glide capabilities, if power is lost.
Why, you may ask, are electric air taxis streets ahead of helicopters for urban mobility? Besides being far less noisy and disruptive, air taxis are less polluting, have multiple redundant systems, and can be flown electronically. By contrast, helicopters are complex mechanical machines requiring constant costly maintenance, and are notoriously difficult to fly.
In the final analysis, air taxis are so much cheaper to operate that ordinary people will soon be able to take them across town or to the airport, just like you would with an Uber — only quicker.
Now the limiting factors to universal adoption of air taxis are city bylaws and the availability of in-city infrastructure for landing and charging. With New York, Tokyo, Los Angeles and Dubai leading the way, you’ll soon be able to hail an air taxi in your city. Chances are, you won’t care if it’s Archer or Joby, so long as it’s available, affordable, and convenient.
• This fictional scenario for the future is designed to challenge norms and spark debate, and is one of a series published by Futureworld titled Provocative Scenarios 2024.
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