The fat lady ended her aria. President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a cabinet of 32 ministers and 43 deputy ministers. Eleven portfolios have two deputy ministers. This, after he had to cobble together a coalition of sorts in the face of the ANC’s near defeat at the polls.
The MK/EFF option has been deferred, and many South Africans now live in hope of a “better life for all”, though this is hardly likely given the track record, array of daft policies, hugely skewed budget allocation and inescapable inclusion of a host of parties that helped shore up the ANC’s deficit, expanding the executive to 77 and contributing to a public wage bill that accounts for more than a third of total spending.
The focus of government spending over the years has shifted from nonfinancial assets, including investment in infrastructure and goods and services, towards meagrely spread but extensive social benefits and high interest payments on debt. The cold reality is that there is very little money to go around.
The path forward demands decisive economic reforms and prudent fiscal management to navigate the uncertain terrain ahead
SA’s economic performance has been woeful, and difficult decisions are needed to ensure the economy grows and creates jobs, let alone addresses the imperative to focus on needs. Then there is the gap between what government spends and what it collects in taxes.
The government is scrambling to cover the social wage, which accounts for about 60% of non-interest spending, covering community development, employment programmes, health, education and social protection. And while it aims to accelerate the rollout of public infrastructure by bringing in skills and financing from the private sector, control over the provision of public goods, a handle on prices and the equitable transformative distribution will need to be managed.
It is a hard ask when only 1.3% real GDP growth is expected in 2024, before improving to 1.8% in 2026. Under the circumstances, Ramaphosa’s allocation of ministries to the coalition partners in the GNU has in effect kept the concentration of control in the hands of the ANC, whose majority in cabinet will ensure continued control of key ministries and overall policy direction.
Deficit narrative
Over the longer term there is an opportunity to alter the dire basic educational system. The question is whether a young former party researcher with a short, unproved stint as DA chief whip will be up to the job. The SA Democratic Teachers Union (Sadtu) is already gearing up to stop her in her tracks.
Sadtu sees the DA’s “deficit narrative” as being “enmeshed in their propaganda and ideology”, while the DA believes the education system has been “captured by the vested interests of Sadtu”. It won’t be easy.
The ministries of agriculture and forestry, fisheries & the environment are hardly likely to weigh in with any particular gravitas in the scheme of things — despite the importance of those roles. While home affairs is an important nuts-and-bolts portfolio, it is a thankless task. It operates in a Dante’s Inferno of delivery. Infrastructure has no money available and the new young incumbent, a John Steenhuisen acolyte, will need to spend most of his time cajoling the private sector.
The department of communications & digital technologies — mandated to enable SA’s digital transformation to achieve inclusion and economic growth by creating a relevant policy and regulatory environment — operates on the administrative fringes, only coming into play when the economy is firing on all cylinders.
The IFP has landed the portfolio it wanted, and the Freedom Front Plus will do what the apartheid regime did best: keep prisoners under lock and key. Patricia de Lille will do to tourism what she inflicted on public works, and the least said the better about former gangster and convicted criminal Gayton McKenzie in his role at the helm of arts & culture.
In this complex political landscape the daunting challenges facing SA are worsened by the cabinet expansion. This bloating of the executive branch not only strains the public wage bill but reflects a contentious strategy to maintain political stability amid coalition dynamics. How the DA squares this with former demands to cut the executive is interesting.
Still, amid sluggish economic growth and pressing social needs, the allocation of ministries to coalition partners underlines a delicate balancing act. The path forward demands decisive economic reforms and prudent fiscal management to navigate the uncertain terrain ahead.
Despite all the hype we’re in for more of the same. More’s the pity. Let’s hope the two deputy ministers in finance will at least be able to assist in steering the ship — they’re both capable and safe hands.
• Cachalia is a former DA MP and public enterprises spokesperson.
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