Dateline: July 5 2028: Since China became the world’s largest supplier — by far — of plastic for packaging and containers, the price of plastic has plummeted, making it the material of choice for oh so many applications, from bottles to baskets and everything in between.
But overcapacity has a dark side. Not only are the factories running on half shift, but also others in the developed world have simply died, unable to compete with the “China price”. Which means that China dominates the sector and dictates the prices for everything from raw materials to shipping.
It’s slightly technical, but China has ramped up the building of small to medium plants over the past decade, as part of its rapid industrialisation programme. Now it is producing polypropylene, PVC and PET in vast quantities, exceeding domestic demand and flooding global markets.
The feedstocks for these plants are almost entirely derived from fossil fuels and petrochemicals, making it a challenge for anyone who wants to decarbonise the supply chain and reduce overall emissions.
But the worst impact for the environment is the availability of so much polluting plastic, which is difficult and costly to recycle. Almost all of it, about 98%, ends up in landfills, rivers and the oceans, despite strict regulations in the EU and US.
The dream of reducing plastic pollution by switching to biopolymers and compostable containers and packaging has evaporated. It makes no commercial sense, and consumers aren’t willing to foot the bill, when Chinese plastic is so cheap.
There’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon. If scientists from MIT and Korean universities can perfect their plastic-eating algae and microbes, and breed them on an industrial scale, we can rid the world of plastic, permanently. /First published in Mindbullets July 4, 2024
Natural is the new synthetic
Plastic, glass and drugs come from microbes, not minerals
Dateline: May 29 2030: For close on a century, we’ve been making materials out of petroleum products and minerals; things that drive the modern consumer society such as plastics, fuels and food additives. What’s more, our never-ending population boom needs larger crops every year.
It’s not as if we’re running short of commodities such as oil and maize, but mining and forest clearing are taking their toll on the planet. The solution is obvious: use nature to synthesise nature — it’s been going on, naturally, for billions of years.
Biosynthesis and bioengineering are making it possible to turn plants and microbes into factory workers. With a little genetic modification, bacteria can be coaxed into producing synthetic oils and fats; and herbs, yeasts and enzymes can make almost any complex compound we require.
It started with brewing synthetic palm oil back in 2020, to save the forests from being cleared for plantations. Now we’re making “glass” from transparent cellulose and organic polymers to replace plastic, without the need for expensive recycling and toxic chemical waste.
Call it synth-org or bio-facturing if you will, but making stuff these days is more like farming and brewing than chemistry and industrial processes. Consumers love it, and so does the environment. It’s only natural. /First published in Mindbullets May 28, 2020
Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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