Dateline: 17 August 2038: (Updated with additional information from Roscosmos and China National Space Administration)
With space being infinite in potential resources and in ... well, space, a war over it was the last thing anyone expected. But, late last night, we were closer to World War 3 than during the Cuban missile crisis more than 60 years ago.
It all started at 10pm Pacific time with several American early-warning satellites suddenly deorbiting and burning up on re-entry. The US immediately went to Defcon 2, while suspecting China and Russia of acts of war. Within 20 minutes, Kenya, India, and the EU in quick succession reported that several of their critical defence and communications satellites had suddenly deorbited. With no communication from either Russia or China, by 10.30pm, the US stepped up to Defcon 1, and prepared for a retaliatory strike.
Then, just after 2am, first China, then Russia, admitted that they had also lost strategic defence satellites. By 3am, the US stepped down to Defcon 3, and the world’s leaders all took a deep breath. But big questions remained: how did this happen? And who was behind it?
There had been a friendly game of cat-and-mouse going on since the early 20s, with satellites tracking and chasing each other across the skies. The stakes escalated dramatically when the US, China, and Russia all started testing offensive anti-satellite capabilities, and took on a much more sinister tone with the still unsolved “Great Space Hack of 2031” (when the decommissioned International Space Station, now the Curved Horizons Hotel, was taken over by hackers for a few hours).
With increasing threats, it came as no surprise when the privately operated Guardian System was launched in 2034 to “keep the shipping corridors to Mars and the Artemis Moon Base safe and free from space debris”. Even though the mission parameters were classified, each transport run came with “bodyguards”; an accompanying swarm of small but solid kamikaze satellites ready to physically block any attacker.
There is thus no shortage of capable suspects, ranging from rogue space nations to well-funded activist hackers. Anyone with access to the internet and AI could have hacked the satellites, directed swarms of “bodyguards” to drag the satellites out of orbit, or just fried them with energy beams.
At this early stage of the investigation, Kenya and the EU have not ruled out a false-flag operation and are calling for independent verification of every satellite in orbit, its position, and its purpose, but neither China nor America is likely to accede to that request.
Whatever the truth behind this crisis, it will affect space exploration, tourism, and science for decades.
The space race is on, and nations as well as companies are in a rush to stake their claim on planets and asteroids, all in the pursuit of mineral extraction, refuelling stations, and colonisation dreams. It is a multitrillion-dollar economy in the making, needing anything from AI-driven operating systems, remote controlled zero-gravity mining equipment and pure freight logistics. The opportunities are endless and not limited to current national space agencies. /First published in Mindbullets August 15 2024
Hacking the eye in the sky
Space wars are waged in cyberspace
Dateline: April 7 2030: It’s getting pretty crowded up there, in low earth orbit, with thousands of commercial communications satellites and constellations of internet microsats. Then there are the many military “birds” whose primary mission is to spy on the enemy, whoever that might be, but we’re not supposed to talk about them.
The Space Force has to know about all of them, to ensure that the collision avoidance system — driven by artificial intelligence — keeps them safely apart. Even a minor space crash could trigger debris that snowballs into the dreaded Kessler syndrome.
But there’s nowhere to hide in space, and every nation’s satellites are plainly visible, and their movements tracked. Which is where the hacking comes in. It’s one thing to know your enemy’s position, but even more useful to know what they are looking at. With powerful cameras being so small and cheap nowadays, even Starlink minisats can spy if they want to.
If you’re the hacker, once you’ve infiltrated a satellite network, you take great pains to cover your tracks. Like traditional spying, most of the advantage is lost the minute you are detected. Unless they actually attack you; then you can boast how weak their cyber defences are, and put them at a disadvantage.
On the other hand, with all the commercial satellites in orbit, it’s hardly necessary to hack. For the right price you can buy super hi-res images direct from the operators and contract for real-time feeds, day or night. With a nondisclosure agreement in place, of course. Unless you are a pariah state, and subject to universal sanctions.
Yes, wars in space are not about weapons. They’re about data and intelligence, and they are fought in cyberspace. /First published in Mindbullets April 14 2022
Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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