Now that the unity government has been formed and a cabinet appointed, all that remains is for the parties to agree on a policy agenda for the next five years. Somehow, those leading the negotiations were able to do all of this in just over a month, with no legal framework or precedent to follow.
That is quite the achievement. What is also impressive is that, barring the minor disagreement here and there, not once did it ever truly feel as if the country was on a knife’s edge during the negotiation period. For once, we did not witness the political grandstanding we have become so accustomed to seeing. Instead, for the most part, those at the negotiating table acted in a calm and reasonable manner to achieve an outcome that, on balance, satisfied all who were involved.
Inevitably, the tie-up between the ANC and DA has raised the ire of other political parties and sections of the public. Some commentators have even gone as far as to say that it is the worst outcome for the country’s long-term success. The reasons posited by the dissenters centre on the idea of the union being “anti-transformation”. In other words, they view it as a move to reverse the socioeconomic gains that have been made over the last 30 years to uplift the black population.
Upon assessing the options that were in front of the negotiators, which can be framed as a choice between a coalition of parties that believe in the rule of law and adhere to the constitution versus those who do not, it is quite evident that they settled on the best option within the circumstances.
A union backed by the public
Now that the coalition is firmly in place, the focus will shift towards the chances of its survival. In this regard it currently has three important factors playing in its favour. The first is that public opinion seems to be on its side. This can be measured in various ways, but one reliable way is through methodologically robust social surveys.
One such survey was conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) a month before the May elections to assess the favourability of parties entering into a GNU. It found that just over 70% of the respondents expressed positive support for such an arrangement. More interestingly, in another survey run by the SRF in October 2023, over 60% of ANC and DA voters conveyed their support for a coalition between the two to bring about stability.
The second is that the two parties have separate and clearly defined constituencies that neither has been able to meaningfully break through into and based on previous election results, neither is likely to do so any time soon. The benefit of this is that it reduces the likelihood of the parties engaging in the often bitter internal and public spats we have witnessed in coalitions between parties that share the same constituencies.
The third is the broad alignment between the two parties on some policy initiatives started by the previous administration to restructure the economy, especially those initiated by Operation Vulindlela — an initiative of the presidency and the Treasury to accelerate the implementation of structural reforms and support economic recovery. This initiative has made important strides in opening up electricity generation for independent power producers, reducing the regulatory bottlenecks in government, increasing the available digital spectrum, and establishing public-private partnerships to run Transnet’s rail network.
Even though we are yet to get a full sense of the new administration’s overall policy agenda, that there is a shared desire to continue implementing these crucial reforms is a positive marker for long-term policy stability and is sure to uplift business and investor confidence. With these three elements in its favour, the prospects of successful GNU look positive. However, threats to its durability remain.
Obstacles to its agenda
The most obvious threat lies within the growing alliance of political actors both in and outside the “progressive caucus” of opposition parties, whose mission is to use the media to sway public opinion against the new administration by either generating or capitalising on polarising issues in SA society. Through these efforts they hope to create a credible pathway for an anti-GNU candidate to assume the ANC presidency at the party’s elective conference, scheduled for the end of 2027.
Whether they succeed in their plan rests heavily on the coalition government’s ability to maintain the public support it has. The only way for it to do so is to ensure there is a noticeable improvement in the living standards of citizens between now and 2029. That would entail meaningfully reducing the high levels of unemployment and crime, as well as providing better public healthcare, education and other basic services. In doing so the GNU will need to carefully manage public expectations through an effective communication strategy that sets out the scale of the challenges to be addressed and also highlights policy achievements made.
That will certainly not be an easy task, and it could be made even more difficult if a devastating international event were to occur, such as an economic recession, pandemic, or major war between one or more of the global superpowers. If any one of those scenarios were to come to pass the economic consequences could be dire for an already struggling public, and may strengthen the hand of those opposing the new administration. But if none of them comes to pass, then the GNU should be able to withstand the domestic threats to its longevity.
While we cannot be certain about what the future may bring, we can be cautiously optimistic that if it manages to hold for the full five-year term, and possibly beyond that, the GNU can serve as the vehicle that moves the country from a negative socioeconomic trajectory to a positive one.
• Moema writes on politics and public policy.
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