Pageantry, photo opportunities, red carpets and high-level delegations. The Forum on China-Africa Co-operation made global headlines last week as China courted the leaders of most of African states. Now that the dust has settled, it’s useful to think about what we can learn from it.
The media attention over the past few days has centred on a few themes. For example, there has been a focus on the nature of China’s relationship with African countries, particularly large infrastructure projects. The usual questions around skills transfer and the use of local African labour were raised. It was noted that China’s focus on the continent is largely due to the mineral wealth it possesses, which has become increasingly relevant and valuable in the transition to renewable energy. A type of Gold Rush 2.0.
Reporting also highlighted that African states were largely unprepared for the visit, not having done their homework on a policy position (individually or at the level of the AU). And finally, it was noted that the amount of money invested in Africa by China had dropped significantly, debt levels are high, and promises of financial investment made in the past are difficult to track and verify.
What is revealed by this lack of follow-up on promises is really interesting. China is increasingly exerting “soft power” — friendship, equality, partnership and ceremony. It’s no longer just about the money. The forum’s theme of “joining hands” sends a powerful message. Who else is willing to stand beside African countries, as their equal, hand-in-hand, as they seek together to bring about development and prosperity? This imagery packs a punch.
China has successfully created the feeling that African leaders are special and feted. Where else is such a large gathering of African leaders met with such fanfare? And the forum allows not only for grandstanding as a collective, a show of unity and power, but also for bilateral conversations. This creates the impression that each African country is special to China. Each relationship is worthy of time and attention. No doubt the Chinese counterparts were well prepared for those meetings.
President Cyril Ramaphosa went to great lengths to assure South Africans that the forum is a meeting of equals. His remarks emphasised the aim to “shift the structure of our trade profile and deepen our investment relationship”. With more than 50 countries vying for China’s attention, it’s a crowded marketplace.
Yet, with the growing geopolitical discontent between the US and EU on the one hand, and China on the other, Africa is like the child of divorced parents. Both regions are vying for the attention and affection of Africa — less with the interests of African parties in mind than with the aim of securing the region for power bloc purposes. The showcase of friendship on the part of China sends a clear signal to the West: look how popular we are.
While China was providing lavish gifts in the form of infrastructure projects to Africa countries, the EU has largely acted as the responsible parent. Words of warning on liberal democracy, paternalistic advice on market management and a general interference in relationships and attitudes have been forthcoming from the EU. But what both have failed to notice is that Africa has grown up. African countries, markets and democracies are maturing.
Many citizens across African countries were alarmed by the mass exodus of their leaders to China, seeing it as a sign of dependence rather than strength and self-determination. Leaders needed to assure citizens that they did not go “cap in hand” to the forum, and walked away with more than just crumbs from China’s table. Africa’s citizens are critical, and are holding their leaders to account.
In a somewhat Trumpian-sounding statement President Xi Jinping noted that “the China-Africa relationship is now at its best in history”. And while Xi praised the “future growth” that may flow from the deals, the unasked question is: whose growth? Indeed, China now faces tariffs in the US, EU and Canada, meaning that to sustain its economic growth it needs to pivot and create demand to access African markets.
If the geopolitical situation remains fraught but a balance emerges between the US and Europe on the one hand and China on the other, African countries will need to be able to manage the delicate balance of extracting value from partners on both sides. The continent is in a position where we have what they need: markets, people, resources.
In the alternate reality, African partnerships and relationships with the West become a thing of the past and geopolitical power continues to shift to the East. In this case, the time is now to bolster our ability to negotiate and get the deals that meet the development, sustainability and socioeconomic needs of African countries and citizens.
Africa is increasingly the kingmaker and can tip the scales in favour of either China or the US and Europe. And while the media coverage positions actors across the continent as standing on the margins, in reality the continent and its leaders have clout and influence. It’s time we started to appreciate that, and push for the rhetoric of partnership and equality to become a reality. And it’s vital that we do so now, while there is room to manoeuvre.
• Alexander is director at investment and advisory consultancy TIGC and a faculty member of the Gordon Institute of Business Science.
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