As SA approaches the midterm budget the nation finds itself at a pivotal moment.
The government is grappling with a worsening fiscal situation, declining economic growth and soaring public debt. At the heart of this crisis lies one crucial issue: the state of SA’s education system. Without urgent intervention the education sector risks further deterioration, with profound consequences for the country’s future.
The SA economy is buckling under immense pressure, with stagnating growth and rising national debt. Finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s February budget speech highlighted the gravity of the situation, with debt-service costs now consuming over 20% of national revenue.
The economic outlook for 2023 has worsened, with growth projections revised down from 0.8% to a mere 0.6%. Factors such as load-shedding, inefficiencies in transportation and a high sovereign credit risk continue to strangle the economy’s potential.
The government of national unity (GNU) has made some headway in stabilising the economy, as seen in the modest 0.4% growth in real GDP during the second quarter, following a stagnant first quarter. Improved energy security and a rebound in business confidence contributed to this growth. However, these gains do not address the deeper, structural issue of SA’s shrinking tax base.
This midterm budget is not just another fiscal update — it is a test of the government’s commitment to the future of SA.
With only 14.24-million taxpayers — down from 15.25-million a decade ago — the burden of funding critical services such as education, healthcare and social grants increasingly falls on a small fraction of the population. The shrinking tax base, compounded by high emigration rates among skilled workers, underscores the challenge of sustaining long-term public investment in the face of rising demands.
This economic stagnation is inextricably linked to the country’s struggling education sector. SA’s faltering economy does not generate enough revenue to adequately fund essential public services, including education. The education budget has faced continual cuts over the last decade, leading to severe consequences.
The Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal are bracing for cuts in teaching posts due to budget shortfalls. This will undoubtedly increase class sizes, reduce individual attention for pupils and erode the overall quality of education. As a result, the country’s ability to produce a skilled, competitive workforce is at risk.
A robust economy and a thriving education system must go hand in hand. Without substantial investment in education, SA cannot build the human capital required to fuel economic growth. However, without economic growth there is simply not enough revenue to adequately fund the education system. This vicious cycle threatens to perpetuate poverty, inequality and underdevelopment.
Education is already under immense pressure. According to basic education minister Siviwe Gwarube, provincial education departments face a collective budget shortfall of R28.7bn this fiscal year, a figure projected to balloon to R118.2bn by 2027-2028. Overcrowded classrooms, outdated infrastructure and a lack of resources have become the norm, while the number of pupils in the system has grown by nearly 300,000 in the past five years.
Without a significant and sustained increase in education funding the situation will deteriorate further, creating a generation of undereducated, underskilled youth who will be ill-equipped to contribute to the economy.
For SA to break out of this economic quagmire, education must be placed at the forefront of national priorities. Long-term growth depends on a well-educated, highly skilled workforce that can drive innovation, productivity and global competitiveness. This requires a significant portion of the national budget to be allocated to key areas such as teacher training, curriculum development and infrastructure improvements.
While the government’s fiscal constraints are undeniable, a recalibration of priorities is essential. Investment in education should not be viewed as a short-term expenditure but as a long-term investment in the country’s future. A well-educated populace is essential for attracting foreign investment, driving entrepreneurship, and fostering innovation — all of which are key to sustainable economic growth.
Education plays a critical role in addressing inequality and fostering social cohesion. SA remains one of the most unequal societies in the world, with young people in rural and township areas disproportionately affected by poverty. By prioritising education government can equip young South Africans with the skills they need to break free from the cycle of poverty and meaningfully participate in the economy.
This midterm budget is not just another fiscal update — it is a test of the government’s commitment to the future of SA. The decisions made in this budget will determine whether the country can emerge from its economic stagnation or continue to sink further into crisis. Education must be at the centre of any recovery strategy.
By prioritising education in the national budget we can create the conditions necessary for sustainable economic growth and social development. The alternative would be a tragedy from which the country may never recover.
• Roos, a policy writer, researcher and political analyst, serves as the UN youth ambassador for education (SDG 4).
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