The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) began this week in Baku, Azerbaijan, offering a valuable opportunity to reflect on almost 30 years of global climate negotiations. Those early COP participants are likely to have envisioned far greater progress by now. But the complexities of aligning 144 countries’ unique interests and priorities towards a common climate goal have presented challenges and achievements. Each COP has built on the previous, fostering a layered structure of agreements, frameworks, and ongoing commitments. While slow, this progression is meaningful, especially as climate science and the urgency to act have become clearer.
COP29 takes place against a complex political backdrop. In recent months, elections worldwide have introduced new administrations and policy shifts, some of which could be potential setbacks for climate action. The recent confirmation of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency raises concerns given his previous administration’s scepticism towards multilateral climate agreements. Trump’s first term was marked by a retreat from international climate commitments and hesitation towards climate funding initiatives that strained global cohesion and affected smaller nations that rely on these funds.
This political shift could create a ripple effect, possibly slowing down the momentum of recent years. COP29 therefore faces a dual challenge: not only must it continue advancing on adaptation and mitigation targets, but it must also maintain unity amid political turbulence.
COP29 is not positioned as a transformative event such as Paris (COP21) or Glasgow (COP26), which were historical in their ambitions and agreements. Rather, COP29 is a “workhorse” conference, a term that implies steady and incremental progress. COP29 is focusing on fine-tuning previous commitments, particularly as the first global stocktake of emissions reduction progress is presented. This stocktake shows how far we’ve come since the Paris Agreement: while the world was once on track for a devastating 4°C temperature increase by the century’s end, projections now suggest a range of 2.1°C–2.8°C.
However, adaptation efforts are becoming ever more urgent. The world breached the critical 1.5°C threshold in 2024, a marker of significant climate risk. This shift underscores the reality that climate impacts will continue to escalate, demanding immediate adaptation strategies and support for vulnerable communities.
Key themes to watch are:
- Finance and adaptation: Dubbed by some the “finance COP”, this year’s conference will revisit the unmet $100bn annual climate finance target, initially established in Copenhagen in 2009. This financial goal was intended to assist developing countries in their adaptation and mitigation efforts. However, the target remains unmet, highlighting the discrepancy between financial commitments and actual contributions. As developing nations face escalating costs to manage climate impacts, the importance of a renegotiated and realistic finance goal cannot be overstated. One of COP29’s critical achievements will be the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, agreed on at COP28. The fund promises to support vulnerable nations that have already experienced significant climate-induced losses.
- Just energy transition: SA’s role in championing just energy transitions has been recognised internationally. Past COPs have underscored the need for a “just” approach that considers social implications, especially for communities reliant on fossil fuel industries. With Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due for review at COP30 in Brazil, COP29 will focus on laying the groundwork to ensure these commitments are both ambitious and equitable. SA has been at the forefront of advocating for policies that balance environmental objectives with socioeconomic needs, setting an example for other countries in similar situations. By emphasising policies that support vulnerable workers and communities, SA is framing the transition as one that should leave no-one behind.
- Carbon market rules: The issue of carbon market regulation, specifically under article 6 of the Paris Agreement, remains unresolved. These rules are vital for establishing a global carbon market in which countries and companies can trade emissions reductions. However, the lack of clarity on these regulations is stalling market confidence. Without finalised rules, many countries are hesitant to fully commit to these markets. Clear, enforceable carbon market rules could unleash a wave of investment into emissions reduction projects worldwide, making this a critical issue for COP29.
- Adaptation commitments: As the climate continues to warm, surpassing the 1.5°C threshold, adaptation is no longer an option but a necessity. This year’s discussions is likely to highlight the need for enhanced adaptation strategies and recalibrating efforts to practical, measurable targets. Adaptation requires local and international action. For countries such as SA, the focus may shift towards protecting vital infrastructure, supporting water-scarce regions, and developing climate-resilient agricultural practices. Every fraction of a degree matters, and COP29 will emphasise the need for immediate, sustained adaptation actions.
The private sector’s involvement in climate action is becoming increasingly essential. Businesses worldwide, and SA companies in particular, are beginning to see the direct benefits of engaging with robust, investible NDCs. Partnerships such as the National Business Initiative (NBI) and the We Mean Business Coalition are crucial players in pushing for policy frameworks that incentivise investment into sustainable, climate-resilient economies. SA businesses have demonstrated a strong commitment to influencing COP29’s agenda by advocating for policies that promote green investments and support the transition to sustainable business models. NBI’s co-ordination of the SA Pavilion, in partnership with the department of forestry, fisheries & the environment, is an example of this commitment. The Pavilion showcases SA’s leadership in climate action and encourages collaborative solutions. It is a place where ideas and partnerships can flourish, offering a unique platform to highlight SA's role in global climate efforts.
The global community faces unprecedented challenges, from climate-induced disasters to economic instability. Yet, there are new opportunities for collaboration and unity. COP29’s success will hinge on the commitment of leading economies and the willingness of all nations to move beyond rhetoric and implement meaningful, justice-orientated climate action. SA’s robust representation at COP29 is a powerful statement of its dedication to climate leadership. The country’s presence amplifies the voices of those who advocate for a just transition, one that doesn’t sacrifice vulnerable communities but instead builds a pathway to resilience and prosperity for all.
As the conference unfolds in Baku, we are reminded that global climate action is a marathon, not a sprint. Each COP builds on the last, and each year’s progress lays the foundation for what’s to come. SA’s commitment to these discussions is more than symbolic; it represents a nation taking charge of its future and advocating for climate justice on a global stage.
• Soobramoney is the CEO of the NBI, which, in partnership with the department of forestry, fisheries & the environment, is leading the SA business delegation at COP29.
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