With Donald Trump’s re-election as US president, Pretoria faces a complex diplomatic landscape that demands recalibration. Given Trump’s “America First” doctrine, renewed focus on trade protectionism and inclination for personality-driven diplomacy, SA must anticipate a distinct shift in its interactions with the US.
The assumption that historical alliances or shared values will soften the approach is a miscalculation SA cannot afford to make. With possible risks including economic sanctions and pressure on renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), the stakes are higher than ever, calling for a combination of pragmatic adaptation and diplomatic finesse.
A geopolitical risk premium has developed around SA in recent years, due to foreign policy positions that have placed the country at odds with Washington. This strain began with SA’s stance on the Ukraine conflict and was amplified by the diplomatic fallout from the “Lady R” incident — a saga involving allegations of arms trading between SA and Russia. Tension rose further over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s planned visit for the Brics summit and have intensified with SA’s decision to file a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
Though President Cyril Ramaphosa describes these positions as “principled disagreements”, there is growing concern that these stances could carry lasting economic repercussions, especially with a number of harsh critics of SA being appointed to the Trump administration.
The global context, marked by inflationary, fiscal and geopolitical pressures, presents new challenges. Externally, a re-elected Trump administration is expected to draw tighter lines with allies. Given SA’s historical ties to countries the US labels as “rogue states”, it could now face closer scrutiny. This securitisation of trade policy — where economic ties are wielded within broader security strategies — means SA must carefully navigate its international relationships.
Domestically, SA’s ruling coalition, comprising the ANC and the DA, faces its own divisions. The two parties often diverge on diplomatic strategies and world views, raising the question of whether they can harmonise on a unified foreign policy, particularly under Trump’s leadership. Without a cohesive stance, SA risks presenting a fragmented position that could be exploited diplomatically.
In the near term, SA faces two pressing diplomatic challenges. First is the US-SA Bilateral Relations Review Bill, introduced in early 2024, which mandates a reassessment of bilateral relations, making the relationship more vulnerable to sanctions. With a Republican-controlled Senate, the bill stands a strong chance of passing. If enacted, it could enable punitive measures with serious economic consequences. This move highlights Washington’s increased readiness to scrutinise and penalise perceived adversaries. For SA, this underscores the need for recalibrated diplomacy, focused on trust-building and strategic realignment.
The second challenge is Agoa, set to expire in September 2025. Agoa plays a key role in facilitating SA exports to the US, and its renewal has typically enjoyed bipartisan support. Under Trump, however, Agoa may be seen more as leverage in negotiations with SA. Indeed, Trump may deem it appropriate to use more “stick” than carrot and tighten the conditionalities required to qualify. The administration’s stance on contentious issues, like the Gaza conflict, could influence the outcome. Since Agoa’s terms rest on presidential discretion, Trump’s return threatens SA’s favourable trade status. For SA, the challenge will be to avoid antagonistic posturing while underscoring its strategic importance to US interests.
Trump’s adversarial foreign policy style, particularly towards nations associated with “malign actors” like Iran and Russia, demands clear communication from SA. Though SA has consistently maintained a non-aligned stance, its actions have at times suggested otherwise, inviting criticism. Thus, SA leaders must clarify that their foreign policy choices reflect principles of sovereignty and justice, not anti-US sentiment.
Trump’s diplomacy, which values personal connections over formal protocol, necessitates an unconventional approach. Past exchanges between Pretoria and Washington have been marred by miscommunication, creating an impression of SA as antagonistic. In this context, Ramaphosa would benefit from building a level of personal chemistry with Trump, replicating the example of Narendra Modi in India.
This approach requires consistent, coherent messaging from key diplomats, particularly Ebrahim Rasool, recently reappointed as US ambassador. Rasool will need to establish bipartisan connections, emphasising shared interests and sidestepping rhetoric that could be seen as anti-American. His role will be crucial in presenting SA’s stance on non-alignment as a sovereign policy choice, not an alignment with US adversaries. His efforts will help shape SA’s image within US political circles and mitigate risks associated with Agoa or sanctions.
Despite these challenges, there are opportunities SA can leverage. Recent personnel changes have brought more pragmatic voices, including that of international relations & co-operation minister Ronald Lamola, who has adopted a more measured approach than his predecessor, Naledi Pandor. Trade, industry & competition minister Parks Tau, known for his constructive policy stance, has been lobbying actively for Agoa renewal.
As SA prepares to host the Group of (G20), it has a unique opportunity to foster constructive US engagement. However, lacking the economic influence of larger economies, SA must focus on areas of unique strategic importance to the US, such as SA’s abundant supply of critical minerals, essential to electric vehicles and technology industries. By positioning itself as a reliable supplier of these resources, SA can increase its relevance in US economic strategy, especially given the centrality of these minerals to industries associated with Elon Musk, who has been appointed within the Trump administration.
In navigating a potential Trump 2.0 administration, SA must favour pragmatic flexibility over ideological rigidity. To secure a stable partnership with the US, SA’s leaders need to craft a clear, unified message that aligns with US interests while safeguarding national sovereignty. Trump’s return brings unique complexities, but through a balanced approach, SA can position itself as a constructive player in an unpredictable new world order.
• Gopaldas is a director at African risk advisory firm Signal Risk.
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