We’re used to the notion of American exceptionalism. But the tidal wave of isolationist and protectionist policies that is about to hit us comes at a bad time, when wars — hot, cold and trade — are destabilising the geopolitical landscape. At the same time, for SA this moment poses tremendous opportunities.
The peculiar nature of Make America Great Again (MAGA) politics means the formation of Donald Trump’s second cabinet will dominate world news for weeks to come. Unfortunately, not necessarily for the better. Knowing what we know about some of his picks, it is difficult to be anything less than shocked at the thought of what’s coming.
Beyond the internal politics, how should SA prepare for the impending chaos and uncertainty that will spill over from Trump’s presidency? There are three simultaneous approaches we need to take. One is to engage as usual, the second is to turn away and the third is to leverage our Group of 20 (G20) presidency.
Engage as usual
SA mobilised at lightning pace to get representation to the US — and rightly so, as we need a voice in the rooms where it counts and should continue lobbying and engaging with our US partners. We need to ensure we can achieve our strategic goals in partnership with the US where possible. We need to defend our access to African Growth & Opportunity Act benefits and the SA jobs the legislation represents.
Beyond that, Trump and his band of misfits are likely not to directly disrupt US-African relations all that much. After all, the man himself famously thinks we are a collection of 54 “shithole” countries, so the traditional lack of focus the US has had on us is unlikely to change — even with his former SA wingman on hand.
However, when we assess the broader context, consider the wider geopolitical landscape and analyse our position thoroughly, we see that the next four years will be anything but business as usual. Therefore, the bulk of our attention is best spent beyond Trump.
SA is a hungry economy, seeking growth and innovation, thirsty for funding and with a set of institutions and vibrant companies that outshine their global counterparts.
If Trump pulls back from Nato this will have severe consequences for the EU, with the New York Times reporting that Norway, Sweden and Finland are all updating their national crisis preparedness advice. These are dark times for them. In addition, the EU market is saturated, the population is ageing and its choice of friends is dwindling. It would seem the EU is natural enemies with China, despite having outsourced production to this region.
EU is lonely
Europe’s erstwhile best friend in geopolitical terms is no longer sharing and no longer keen to play. This should be music to our ears. SA needs to look to fill this void, turning away from Trump and towards the EU to leverage the continent’s isolation to our advantage.
SA is a hungry economy, seeking growth and innovation, thirsty for funding and with a set of institutions and vibrant companies that outshine their global counterparts. We are born and bred in complexity, and know how to get things done during messy times. We have just enough of the rough edges to make partnership feel like an exciting and meaningful deal for European businesses.
There is a lot of work that can be done in partnership with the EU that can boost the objectives of both parties.
The geopolitical shifts that are taking place open the door to stronger friendships and benefits for both SA and our EU counterparts.
For example, the EU has a large fund aimed at boosting development across the continent — climate change, infrastructure, skills development and more. This is similar to China’s Belt & Road Initiative. The logic is, of course, in the interests of the EU: to limit the number of migrants arriving in Europe and attempt to diffuse a tense political issue in the region.
The EU is also attempting to address its energy challenges by promoting supplies of renewable energy even as Trump proclaims, “Drill, baby, drill!” and is likely to roll back environmental protections. SA can thread the needle and balance these two positions by seeking to accelerate our development and bring resources on-stream, building a broader energy mix for the country with the support and skills of our EU counterparts.
As trade, industry & competition minister Parks Tau recently noted, the rest of the world is hungry for our resources — including wind and solar — and we need to leverage this while we can.
G20 presidency
Let’s move from despair at Trump to hope as SA assumes the presidency of the G20, the first African country to hold this position. We are also the only African country in the G20, so it is important to understand both why we hold the position as well as the responsibility that this comes with.
We need to maximise this opportunity. This is a unique chance to leverage the convening role and central position we have, and to show the world — the EU in particular — that we are steady partners. Let’s prove to the West that we are the adults in the room.
As the US is navel gazing, attempting to regain its greatness through its cesspool of delinquent cabinet appointees and wrangling over its domestic demons, let’s not lose sight of the big picture and the opportunity this presents for us. The geopolitical shifts that are taking place open the door to stronger friendships and benefits for both SA and our EU counterparts, and allow us to shut the door on the MAGA noise — for now.
• Dr Alexander is director at investment and advisory consultancy TIGC and a faculty member of the GIBS Business School.
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