When planning for 2025, President Cyril Ramaphosa and his team would have known that international relations would be among key topics for his administration.
With the world’s most powerful nations expected to gather in SA in November for the annual Group of 20 (G20) summit, the country’s position on various international trade issues as well as its sometimes-contentious stance on geopolitical subjects would come under much sharper global scrutiny.
But the team at the Union Buildings would not have imagined that such issues would become so prominent so early in the new year, potentially affecting the delivery structure of this year’s state of the nation address (Sona).
Traditionally, the president’s speech during the official opening of parliament is devoted to domestic issues — about 90% of its content — ranging from the state of the economy and the government’s social welfare programmes to highlighting key anniversaries to be celebrated that year.
Those who follow such speeches closely will tell you that once a president starts touching on international issues — which almost always includes pledging solidarity with the Palestinian struggle, calling for the liberation of Western Sahara from Moroccan colonialism and declaring SA’s fidelity to Cuba — he is about to conclude the address.
This has been the tradition since the days of President Nelson Mandela and, as far as this writer can remember, the only exception was in February 2003 — with the US poised to invade Saddam Hussein’s Iraq — when then-president Thabo Mbeki devoted much of his speech to calling for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Gulf region.
Since succeeding former president Jacob Zuma in February 2018, Ramaphosa has broadly followed the same script.
But recent developments, such as the killing of 14 SA soldiers on a peacekeeping mission in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the subsequent war of words with Rwandan President Paul Kagame, along with threats by US President Donald Trump to cut funding to SA, dictate that Ramaphosa put foreign policy and international trade at the centre of his address this evening.
Despite several media conferences, media statements, a social media post by the president as well as an in-depth briefing of the defence portfolio committee by defence and military veterans minister Angie Motshekga, there is still much confusion and disagreement regarding the purpose of the SA National Defence Force’s mission in DRC and as well as the circumstances leading to 14 of the troops losing their lives.
Ramaphosa will have to give a clear account of the deployment, and firmly respond to Rwanda’s insinuation that SA’s involvement has nothing to do with maintaining peace, but protecting the commercial interests of the president’s associates.
Motshekga has already denied this allegation, pointing out that the mission is sanctioned by the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) and that it was ludicrous to think that all 15 of Sadc’s member countries would agree to send troops just to protect the interests of individuals.
However, given that the levels of trust between the politicians and the public are at their lowest, a denial from the president himself would be more emphatic and carry more weight.
The president would also have to outline the next steps. Now that Goma has fallen into the hands of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels and, subsequently, a ceasefire announced, will our troops remain in the region? If yes, for what purpose? If not, what measures will be taken to ensure that a withdrawal does not plunge the Great Lakes into renewed fighting?
The attack on SA soldiers has led to calls, understandably so, for the country to pull out of DRC, with some citizens arguing that SA should focus on its own enormous domestic problems.
But given both our economic and military status in the region, SA’s cannot escape being called upon to help in times of strife, especially when such issues affect the southern African region. It is therefore incumbent on the president to explain this responsibility to the citizens as well as the key principles that ought to guide SA’s involvement.
Such a role would, from time to time, put the country in direct conflict with the likes of Kagame — a former rebel leader who seems convinced that helping a rebel group take over the minerals-rich eastern part of DRC, and possibly even overthrow the central government in Kinshasa, would bring about lasting peace to the Great Lakes region. Ramaphosa cannot successfully stand up to such bullies without the backing of his nation and the parties that make up his government of national unity.
This is equally true of the developing war of words between Pretoria and Donald Trump’s Washington over the US president’s threats to cut funding on the grounds that the government was implementing policies that Trump believes treat “certain classes of people” very badly.
Much of what Trump and his supporters have been saying about SA is obviously wrong and misinformed. But it also has its roots in the heated and often highly divisive debates over contentious legislation such as the recently signed-into-law Expropriation Act and the Bela Act.
While there is very little common ground that can be found between the government’s transformation agenda and the objectives of right-leaning groups such as AfriForum and Solidarity, the tone of discussion among those parties making up the GNU can go a long way in helping outsiders distinguish between truth and fiction.
Yet, perhaps with one eye on the upcoming local government elections, the ANC, the DA and other members of the GNU have been guilty of playing to the gallery and deepening divisions on matters where they are actually not too far apart.
The threat of Trump cutting funding, as well as fears that this may lead to the US government taking even more drastic measures such as removing SA from Agoa, has had an unexpected consequence of the key main parties and players coming out publicly to defend the country’s constitutional provisions and the laws that have been enacted to bring them into life.
This gives an opportunity to Ramaphosa to once again reposition himself at the centre of a government that does not just lead ANC constituencies, but all of the SA society, demonstrating a commitment to genuine regional peace and the rule of law.
Whether he succeeds will depend on the line of march he determines for his ministers and nation during his speech tonight.
• Msomi is editor of the Sunday Times.
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