Last year “positive disruption” was all the rage at the Mining Indaba. This year’s theme of “futureproofing African mining today” introduces a new dimension to the conversation — what does it mean to create a resilient and secure future for the continent’s mining industry amid increased geopolitical competition and disruption?
Africa’s mining future hinges on moving beyond raw material extraction towards downstream value addition, where economically sensible. This requires addressing long-standing internal challenges and adapting to a changing global landscape.
The importance of “futureproofing mining” cannot be understated as the Indaba’s host, SA, attempts to address existing domestic constraints in its own mining industry.
Africa has an abundance of minerals and metals, but the total share of global reserves remains empirically unknown. Claims have been made that the continent is home to nearly 30% of the world’s total mineral reserves. However, the lack of sufficient geological survey data on the continent challenges this assumption. Geological data shows the nature, quality and quantity of the resources. Whether they are economically viable to mine (and the price range at which mining would be viable) or not is a different matter.
African mining countries have faced (and continue to face) numerous challenges in making use of the benefits of these resource endowments for their development. The reasons are multifaceted, including the historical development of the industry, weak governance and inadequate infrastructure. Addressing these and developing effective geological survey data is crucial in enhancing the institutional capacity to futureproof African mining in the era of “critical minerals”.
One of the difficulties associated with “critical” minerals is that it’s not always clear for whom they are critical, or critical for exactly what, or for how long they will be critical. Are they, for instance, minerals Europe requires to avoid dependency on China, or are they minerals that are critical for renewable energy technologies?
This year’s Mining Indaba has taken place amid a changing geopolitical environment with increased polarisation and competition affecting the supply and demand of minerals and metals. Critical/strategic minerals are minerals and metals determined essential for national security and economic applications and the development of energy technologies, and are largely defined by non-African counties.
This competition is driven predominantly by the national interests of countries seeking to shift the control of the supply chain for the refining and processing of these resources away from Chinese dominance. This now occurs in a largely uncoordinated manner through bilateral deals with resource producing countries.
This competition, coupled with fast-changing demand profiles, can contribute to increased commodity price volatility. For instance, battery technology is not fixed and different configurations require different raw materials. Any efforts at futureproofing African mining are, therefore, likely to be ineffective without improved co-ordination among resource rich nations and credible regional value addition strategies. In a geopolitically fragmented world this is more important than ever and difficult to achieve.
Futureproofing mining in Africa is about using the changing environment to promote development, trade and economic co-operation on the continent. These include:
- Leveraging the growing demand for critical minerals and the increasing geopolitical competition over these supply chains for infrastructure investments.
- Using the pressure of investors for responsible mining to mitigate risks, promote sustainable practices and strengthen the requirements for companies to attain a social licence to operate.
- Using regional trade and investment for countries to move beyond extraction towards exploiting global value-chain opportunities.
Critics argue that without learning from historical industry issues futureproofing amid fast-changing mineral demand profiles is a new distraction comparable to the flavour of the week. Such criticism is warranted. Without learning from the history of mining in Africa and the responses to commodity booms, there will be no new development path for the industry. A new approach to mining in Africa is a critical prerequisite for future-proofing.
A challenge to futureproofing African mining is the tension between national interests and regional collaboration opportunities. Without effective mechanisms for co-operation between African mining countries, there is the risk of a race to the bottom in contract negotiations and infrastructure agreements.
Specific steps must, therefore, be taken for futureproofing to be effective in supporting long-term sustainability and growth. They include but are not limited to:
- Increased regional co-operation, investment and trade to develop local critical mineral value chains.
- Investment in infrastructure to facilitate said trade, mineral policy, regulatory reform and harmonisation.
- The development of institutions to promote effective revenue management.
- Increased investment in geological surveying and exploration.
- Implementing effective environmental management processes and systems by mining companies and prioritising land rehabilitation.
- Increased focus on skills development by governments and mining companies.
By drawing on the diverse experiences of African mining countries and strategically fostering co-operation, the continent can build a resilient and prosperous future for the sector and itself.
For SA, futureproofing begins at home. As the Mining Indaba host SA has a unique opportunity — and responsibility — to demonstrate leadership.
Mining Indaba 2024 opened against the backdrop of logistic inefficiency, a continued decline in the rate of new mining investment, regulatory uncertainty and a need for policy reform. Additionally, a low rate of mine licence approval, inadequate investment in exploration and a national electricity crisis worsened these challenges.
Indaba 2025 opened against a backdrop of progress alongside persistent challenges. The resolution of the electricity crisis (notwithstanding resumed load-shedding) and progress towards developing a cadastral system, mark progress. Continued challenges include infrastructure issues (logistics and water), continued regulatory uncertainty, depressed investment, and illegal mining. Additionally, SA faces softer commodity prices due to changes in mineral demand profiles.
SA must intensify its efforts to maintain its competitiveness as a mining destination through increased regulatory efficiency and capitalise on opportunities to develop potential downstream industries further. By creating and applying the concept of futureproofing to existing and emerging challenges, SA can demonstrate leadership in shaping the future of African mining.
The energy transition and shift towards net zero is a key driver in the demand for critical minerals and access to the supply chains. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for critical minerals is expected to triple to 35-million tonnes by 2040, driven by the demand for low-carbon technologies.
African mining will be central to meeting the demand, requiring new exploration and, in some cases, expanding existing mines. At the same time, the sector faces numerous sustainability issues, which are likely to worsen with the increased demand. These issues include environmental damage, lack of rehabilitation, water contamination, human rights and labour violations, lack of adequate community engagement and corruption.
In light of this, promoting responsible, sustainable mining practices and addressing the existing challenges must be at the heart of a vision for futureproofing African mining. This requires a paradigm shift. Responsible mining can no longer be a compliance exercise for accessing capital. It must be a core business function prioritising stakeholders and good governance at every stage, from exploration to closure.
The Mining Indaba cannot afford to be another exercise in rhetoric. The future of African mining depends on a fundamental shift towards transparency, sustainability and local value addition. We need more than commitments; we need concrete plans, collaborative action and measurable results.
• Obisie-Orlu is natural resource governance researcher at Good Governance Africa.
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