Given the publicity and effect a few minutes out of a two-hour webinar have had, it may be easy to forget the real issues that were discussed at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra)-hosted event that gave rise to the recent diplomatic fallout between the US and SA.
Last week’s webinar came after numerous pieces of research and events the institute has undertaken on global issues. A few days before we had hosted a discussion on the Article IV Report issued by the IMF, a ritual Mistra has engaged in for the past three years. In December last year we hosted a webinar on the “Syrian Imbroglio” which unpacked developments in that country as they were unfolding.
In October we hosted a conference on Africa and the “Thucydides Trap”, a phrase used to describe a geopolitical situation in which a hegemonic power is challenged by an upstart. Later this year, Mistra will be releasing its multi-author book on that same theme, while also hosting a round-table on China-Africa relations.
For the March 14 conversation on the implication of the Trump administration for SA, Mistra chose a finely balanced panel, because of the various aspects affecting US-SA relations. SA’s then ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, outlined several key elements of SA’s diplomatic strategy, emphasising that there should be a measured response.
He urged South Africans to “stay calm and don’t panic”, to allow time for the new administration to settle and its policies to mature. He emphasised that SA had to maintain a nuanced approach, protecting core values while being pragmatic about economic interests.
Panellists emphasised the importance of the US economy for
SA, with Rasool pointing out that “exports to China are 80% commodity based, while exports to the US are 70% manufactured”, affecting employment.
Agricultural Business Chamber of SA chief economist Wandile Sihlobo pointed out that while only about 4% of SA’s agricultural exports go to the US, these are concentrated in high-value industries and would be particularly vulnerable to changes in the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa).
Linda-Gail Bekker, CEO and cofounder of the Desmond Tutu Health Foundation, noted that drastic cuts to US President’s Emergency Fund for Aids Relief (Pepfar) funding are affecting HIV/Aids programmes in SA at a critical juncture, when we are working towards bringing the epidemic under control by 2030.
Danny Bradlow of the Centre for Advanced Scholarship, University of Pretoria, noted that Trump’s administration represents both continuity and discontinuity with previous administrations, suggesting that some policies, such as resistance to multipolarity, began under former president Joe Biden. It was also noted that there is a broader pattern of foreign aid reduction to countries worldwide, not just SA.
Panellists and attendees argued that SA’s positions on international issues such as the International Court of Justice case brought against Israel, relations with Russia, and participation in Brics have become points of friction with the Trump administration.
Many attendees commented on the specific focus by the Trump administration on the situation of Afrikaners, which Rasool described as creating “outrage in SA”. He argued that sending envoys to Washington should wait until key positions in the US administration are filled, and that SA had formulated clear negotiating positions. He emphasised that he was engaging with US legislators to establish alternative channels of communication.
The panellists and 350 attendees made several suggestions on the path SA should try to map out. These included diversifying our export markets and strengthening relations with other global partners, including within Africa through the Africa Continental Free Trade Area, Brics, the Middle East and Asia.
SA should also consider moving from the unilateral Agoa framework to a bilateral free trade agreement with the US for greater predictability. Also, that we must build health sector resilience, as seen in the successful transition from 100% Pepfar dependence to 83% domestic funding for HIV programmes.
Rasool’s replacement must carry forward the basis he established in his 50 days as ambassador, as well his legacy of open dialogue during his previous posting to the US from 2010 to 2015.
• Abba Omar is director of operations at Mistra.
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