The abrupt volte-face in European defence spending, triggered by Washington’s receding commitment to Kyiv, serves as a stark illustration of the Trumpian vortex that is engulfing our world.
US President Donald Trump’s capacity to unravel long-standing agreements with disconcerting rapidity has the world on tenterhooks, and the resulting blowback on Africa is likely to be significant. How can the continent respond?
As canvassed at a recent Dunning Africa Centre webinar, leading voices from across the region are coalescing around a clear imperative: Africa must transition from a spectator and potential casualty of global shifts to an active, strategic participant in shaping its own economic and political trajectory.
Would we rather be shot in the head or the heart?
Faced with a landscape of fluctuating allegiances, Africa has to pick a path through a complex web of relationships with the US, China, Russia and Europe. Meanwhile, Trump’s erratic pronouncements, oscillating between rapprochement with Russia and renewed support for Ukraine, for example, underscore the futility of basing policy choices on the US’s whims.
In any case, whichever choice African countries make at this critical juncture comes with trade-offs. Severing ties with China, something the US is likely to encourage, is untenable given China’s long-term investments and loans across the continent.
However, it is not unlikely that Africa faces potential repercussions from the US if we do not reduce our engagement with China, for instance by not renewing the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa), the multilateral trade agreement that facilitates duty-free trade between many African countries and the US.
The looming prospect of US bilateral trade deals replacing existing multilateral agreements such as Agoa also signals a shift towards a more transactional approach, potentially isolating smaller African nations.
“Trump is a businessman. He will likely adopt a bilateral approach to deal with Africa. This method allows him to isolate, to bully,” says Christopher Isike, professor of African politics & international relations at the University of Pretoria.
The question facing the continent then, as Zeal Akaraiwe, founder of Graeme Blaque Advisory in Nigeria puts it, is whether to suffer a shot in the head or the heart. Yet this moment also presents an opportunity.
“As global tariffs rise, African suppliers could step in to fill gaps through increased intra-African trade, particularly in agriculture, textiles and raw materials,” says Winnie Rugutt-Chebon, lecturer at the Institute of Diplomacy & International Studies at the University of Nairobi.
Beyond aid, we only have ourselves
There’s no doubt that the loss of US aid and trade would be a significant blow for the continent — for the US’s biggest African trading partner, SA, trade with the US provided almost $15bn to the country in 2024, or about 4% of total GDP.
But the loss could also serve as a catalyst for self-reliance. What’s more, as US soft power recedes alongside its money, we can expect other actors — including in the private sector — to fill the void, but on altered terms.
“Companies located outside the region that have been badly hit seeking to bypass US tariffs may relocate production to Africa, accelerating industrialisation and job creation,” says Dr Rugutt-Chebon.
“The abrupt end to USAID projects across the continent has forced a rethink, and African nations have an opportunity to shift from aid dependence to business-driven partnerships.
“It is no longer aid — it is business,” she adds. Governments need to recognise this and act accordingly. They can also become far more strategic about how they use the assets that they do have.
Despite its vast population and resources, Africa remains a minor player in the global economy. The continent is home to 1.5-billion people, almost 20% of the global population, yet the total GDP of the continent in 2024 was just $4-trillion, about 4% of total global GDP. Decades of short-sighted leadership have contributed to this vulnerability.
What would the continent look like if its leaders instead worked to ensure that its strategic and rich natural resources, for example the minerals critical to new green technologies — platinum, cobalt, manganese and chromium — helped build our resilience and independence in the world? Rather than exporting these commodities for processing abroad, governments and businesses should seek to drive processing capacity in Africa in order to boost growth.
Resources could also be geared towards building critical infrastructure such as roads, electricity and improved education and health to unlock its human capital dividend.
Moving towards the African Continental Free Trade Area in some meaningful way, even by deepening regional trade across Africa can provide opportunities and markets for African businesses. But such initiatives require political courage and long-term commitment by African governments. Such foresight is often lacking, unfortunately, with the majority of politicians focused on short term outcomes and local initiatives.
In this era of uncertainty, unified strategic action is paramount. African governments and businesses must proactively shape their future, seizing opportunities and mitigating risks. This is not a time to be reacting to external forces, but about asserting agency and prioritising the continent’s interests. It might not feel like what we want, to give up our US aid habit, but it’s what we need, and it’s high time we put ourselves first.
• Narula is director of the Dunning Africa Centre at Henley Business School Africa and John H Dunning chair of international business regulation at Henley Business School, University of Reading. This article is an edited summary of a discussion during a recent webinar at the centre.
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