With the global shift to a low-carbon future, critical minerals have become essential elements in clean energy technologies, electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing. They lie at the centre of the current trade wars and geopolitical rivalry due to intensified competition resulting in resource nationalism, trade restrictions and efforts to secure supply chains.
China represents about 70% of global production of critical minerals and 85% of global refining capacity. SA is one of the world’s leading producers of platinum group metals (PGMs), holding about 80% of platinum reserves, as well as 72% of chrome resources, and is the world’s largest producer of manganese.
Copper is one of the most ubiquitous metals in all types of industry and smart appliances, with China being the overwhelmingly largest destination for copper exports. However, China recently reported the discovery of about 20-million tonnes of copper deposits in Qinghai, on the Tibetan plateau, with authorities indicating there could be potentially 150-million tonnes in surrounding areas. Calling this a game-changer is an understatement.
Headline-grabbing as they are, the Trump tariffs are not the only examples of protectionism and resource nationalism. The OECD claims that the global incidence of export restrictions on critical minerals increased five-fold in the last decade, with China, India, Argentina, Russia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam leading the use of these instruments.
Critical minerals have topped the agenda since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with one of his first executive orders, titled “Unleashing American Energy”, setting out “the US’s mineral dominance” aspirations. “Addressing the threat to national security from imports of copper” is a related executive order. The administration is focused on the territories of Greenland, Canada and Ukraine as part of efforts to “dramatically expand production of critical minerals and rare earths here in the US”.
The US isn’t alone in these endeavours. In 2024 the EU signed a critical minerals deal with Rwanda that the European parliament suspended because of Rwanda’s support for the M23-led rebellion in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). M23’s aim is to seize and export the region’s coltan, tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold. DRC has proposed a critical minerals deal, similar to the one the US is seeking with Ukraine, in exchange for assistance in fighting the M23 rebels.
SA is being directly affected by the Trump tariffs. Analysts suggest that a 25% tariff could reduce SA mineral exports to the US by 15%-30%, depending on substitutability. The tariff affects PGMs — which are crucial for catalytic converters in the automotive industry — and could lead to significant revenue losses for SA mining companies.
On top of this there is the growing trend of platinum recycling, where platinum is recovered from scrap vehicles and other sources, significantly increasing the supply of platinum especially in the developed world. In 2023-2024 recycling accounted for about 25%-30% of the total platinum supply worldwide.
SA mining companies might need to diversify their export markets, focusing more on China, Europe and emerging economies to compensate for reduced US market access. Some mining operations, particularly smaller ones with higher production costs, might become economically unviable under tariff pressure and substitution of our minerals, leading to consolidation in the industry or mine closures.
SA could respond by accelerating value-addition initiatives, processing more minerals domestically rather than exporting raw materials, creating more resilient revenue streams that are less vulnerable to tariff effects.
This is a moment begging for bold leadership to secure our place in the unfolding geo-economic drama while radically improving our domestic manufacturing and technological base.
• Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
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