SA’s open market economy is navigating an increasingly turbulent global environment. The post-pandemic recovery has given way to rising protectionism, trade wars and growing fragmentation in global value chains. The multilateral trading system is under strain, interest rates are high, and climate finance is not flowing at the scale or speed required. At the same time as the just energy transition is under attack, the costs of climate change are escalating. While many countries have made ambitious pledges, global emissions remain high.
Yet in the midst of these headwinds lies a historic opportunity — the green transition, which is reshaping global markets and trade flows. Demand is growing for low-carbon technologies, sustainably sourced materials and circular economy solutions. Countries that can position themselves within these emerging green value chains will not only achieve environmental sustainability, they will unlock new paths to economic growth and development.
SA has the potential to be a front-runner. Our mineral and natural resource endowments, industrial infrastructure, engineering capability and strategic position on the African continent provide a unique base from which to drive green industrialisation. If we get this right we can create meaningful work, build regional value chains and transform our economy in line with the imperatives of the green economy.
The above were some of the key issues broached at the recent trilateral engagement between the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), National Planning Commission (NPC) and the President’s Economic Advisory Council (PEAC). We met to deepen alignment across our advisory work and consider how to support the government of national unity (GNU) in delivering on the promise of inclusive, climate-resilient growth.
A mandate for delivery — nationally and globally
The GNU entered office at a critical juncture. To retain investor confidence, grow exports and unlock the benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), SA must provide continuity in governance and a clear focus on implementation and informed innovation. Now is the time for delivery.
SA chairing the G20 this year provides a platform for global leadership. The country is well positioned to be a bridge builder between developed and developing nations on the continent and beyond. SA is an exemplar of economic ambition, desire to obtain climate stability, and an admirable track record of social justice. We must stand with our partners in the Global South to defend multilateralism, reform global financial institutions and ensure countries retain the policy space to pursue development that is both just and sustainable.
Industrial policy must be linked to public finance, structured to foster interdepartmental co-ordination, and directed towards building new, green and inclusive productive sectors.
Brazil, which will host COP30 later this year, has placed implementation capacity at the centre of its climate agenda. This is the right focus. Plans and pledges must now translate to delivery — and delivery depends on coherent institutions, empowered states and collaborative public-private action.
Rethinking industrial policy for the green transition
The meeting highlighted that SA’s current review of national industrial policy is a moment of great promise. But to be effective, this must be more than a rebranding of old ideas. It must offer an ambitious and structured approach to reshaping our economy in line with the climate objectives set out in our Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
We commend the recent adoption of the Climate Change Bill and the leadership shown by trade, industry & competition minister Parks Tau in anchoring industrial reform on three pillars: decarbonisation; digitalisation; and diversification. These can be powerful drivers of transformation as jobs and growth will most effectively be built on a reliable platform of low-cost, low-carbon energy supply.
Industrial policy must be linked to public finance, structured to foster interdepartmental co-ordination, and directed towards building new, green and inclusive productive sectors. The tools to achieve this are at hand. The National State Enterprises Bill, the Public Procurement Act, the Integrated Resource Plan and the upcoming review of fiscal rules present opportunities to:
- Reform procurement to drive strategic economic outcomes;
- Align SOEs with national development goals;
- Reshape public-private partnerships;
- Position public development banks (PDBs) as proactive, mission-driven actors;
- Align sectoral emissions targets with our NDC; and
- Strengthen state capacity to manage complex economic transitions.
Redefining blended finance for development
A recurring theme in our discussions was the inadequacy of current blended finance models. Too often, multilateral development banks (MDBs) use concessional finance to derisk private capital, while imposing risk-adjusted return thresholds that exclude impactful but complex projects. We believe blended finance must be redefined. This requires:
- Embedding development conditionalities such as local content, fair labour practices and knowledge spillovers;
- Requiring co-investment from national development banks to ensure local alignment and shared accountability; and
- Prioritising mission-orientated investment aligned with national priorities, rather than focusing narrowly on bankability.
SA’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (Jet-IP) offers an opportunity to test and lead this redefinition, but success will require co-ordination across all levels of government and stronger participation of private sector and community actors.
A call for co-ordinated action
The trilateral engagement was more than a meeting. It was a commitment to institutional collaboration at a time when SA needs it most. As the NPC, PCC and PEAC we commit to continuing this work — informing policy, shaping strategy and enabling delivery.
We also call on the GNU, social partners and the broader public to seize this moment. With global trends aligning around a green transformation, and with new domestic consensus emerging around delivery and reform, we have a window of opportunity.
Now is the time to rebuild our economy, restore confidence, and redefine SA’s role in the world.
• Dr Mokate represents the Presidential Economic Advisory Council, Prof Maluleke the National Planning Commission and Dr Olver the Presidential Climate Commission.
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