One year after a historic grand coalition (incorrectly called a government of national unity) emerged from SA’s electoral deadlock, a stark warning echoes through policy circles: political stability is not enough. Without urgent, deep structural reform, this grand coalition risks becoming a missed constitutional inflection point, squandering the crisis-born opportunity for renewal.
I recently had the chance to share thoughts with delegates at the Gordon Institute of Business Science 2025 Economic Outlook Conference, where I argued that the initial market euphoria and relief that followed the new government’s formation masked a dangerous complacency. Relief is not reform; we celebrated the absence of chaos without interrogating the architecture.
Mistaking political calm for institutional coherence is a fundamental misreading, akin to the former Social Democratic Party, Free Democratic Party and Alliance 90/The Greens (the so-called traffic light coalition), which often delivered stability at the expense of decisive reform.
Misplaced optimism
It’s rather curious that the prevailing narrative is that the grand coalition’s mere survival signalled progress. Formed out of necessity rather than ideological alignment, it brought rivals under one roof. Investors responded positively, sensing a reprieve from the instability of a hung parliament.
Yet this optimism was dangerously misplaced. With no prior institutional blueprint or precedent for coalition governance in post-apartheid SA, the coalition remains held together more by political courtesy than constitutional clarity. It’s being built mid-voyage and there’s no rudder, only the hope that everyone will row in the same direction.
One year into SA’s grand coalition experiment, the more pressing question is not how often its constituent parties clash, but what single, unifying programme or policy vision they have jointly presented to the nation. Political coalitions the world over, be they Kenya’s National Accord government or Germany’s traffic light coalition, are expected to bicker and bruise each other; such friction, though undesirable, is part of the democratic bargain.
Yet in each of those examples legitimacy hinged on eventually converging around a clear national agenda. What remains dangerously absent in SA’s case is that sense of collective purpose. What is the shared destination for the country for 2025 and 2026? What indicators of success or failure should the public use to hold this grand coalition accountable? If this grand coalition seeks to be more than a caretaker of calm it must urgently define the “what” and “why” of its existence, beyond the mechanics of political arithmetic.
Or are we expected to live with and in what I call the “Mbappé illusion” — a tendency to over-celebrate standout moments or individuals while the system fails beneath the surface. One player, however brilliant, does not fix an entire squad; team and teamwork are the new sexy. You cannot substitute public trust with press conferences when the latest Afrobarometer data shows that 48% of South Africans say political stability has improved yet only 31% believe actual governance has followed suit.
Lasting legacy?
If the grand coalition seeks to leave a legacy beyond mere political stability, its greatest gift would be to drive reform in two foundational areas: the restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the articulation of a clear national interest doctrine. On SOEs, the debate can no longer be about generic “fixing”. We must urgently distinguish between those entities essential to safeguarding SA in the new global disorder marked by the resurgence of MAGA-style protectionism, EU disarray and the generational rise of China, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and other such groupings.
The guiding principle should be strategic utility: which SOEs make us resilient and which can fuel SA’s rightful bid for regional economic hegemony? Leadership here is not optional — it’s existential.
Secondly, and intimately tied to that, is the need to codify a genuine national interest ethos. While the department of international relations & co-operation may point to the 2022 Framework Document on South Africa’s National Interest, it remains hollow, lacking operational clarity and failing to define what SA stands for in Southern Africa or globally.
Without anchoring reform to a coherent national interest, policy will continue to drift, driven by whim rather than strategic design. The coalition must decide: will it merely co-govern, or will it govern with purpose?
Some may argue that stability is a prerequisite for reform, especially in a fragile democracy. While this is true, global experience shows stability without reform risks entrenching the status quo and missing historic opportunities for renewal. Acknowledging this tension, the coalition must balance the need for calm with the urgency of decisive action.
• Pooe is a public policy specialist at the Wits School of Governance. He writes in his personal capacity.
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