With the imposition of US President Donald Trump’s 30% tariffs on exports to the US, it will not be the politicians or officials who suffer. It will be the factory workers, fruit pickers and entrepreneurs — those who drive SA’s economy – who pay the price for government inaction and incoherence.
Agoa benefits SA will lose
For more than two decades, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) has been a bridge between SA producers and the world’s largest consumer market, providing duty-free access for more than 6,700 products. As a result, the US has become SA’s second-largest export destination, trailing only China and ahead of Germany.
Our exports to the US have more than tripled since Agoa came into effect, from about R55.6bn in the early 2000s to R175.6bn in 2022. Last year SA exported roughly R157bn worth of goods to the US, of which nearly 40% were precious metals, followed by vehicles and machinery (23%), iron and steel (6.5%), and fresh produce (3%).
All of this is now at risk, due in no small part to the government’s erratic foreign policy and failure to deliver the industrial reforms Agoa was meant to incentivise. The result is an estimated annual GDP hit of 0.3%, a R40bn trade hole, and up to 100,000 lost jobs, while the broader economy limps along below 1% growth and sheds nearly 5,000 jobs each working day.
The damage has already begun
The pain isn’t hypothetical. It’s already being felt. Vehicle exports to the US dropped by more than 80% in the first half of 2025, down from over 16,000 units last year to fewer than 3,000 this year.
The automotive sector is supposed to be SA’s manufacturing crown jewel, contributing 5.3% to GDP and supporting more than 500,000 jobs across the value chain.
Factory workers and farmworkers know better than to mistake press releases for progress. The department of trade, industry and competition has sat idle while the ground shifted beneath our exporters.
As recently as last year, cars and car parts made up 64% of SA’s Agoa-based trade with the US, worth nearly R30bn. Seven major carmakers operate here, but so do more than 150 component manufacturers across 210 plants. With almost half their output going to domestic assembly plants, any disruption in exports ripples through the entire supply chain.
We’re already seeing this disruption. Mercedes-Benz’s East London plant, where 90% of C-Class production is for US export, has faced temporary shutdowns, affecting 26 suppliers in the Eastern Cape. In Kariega, Goodyear SA faces potential closure, threatening over 3,000 jobs. These are real people, in real communities, who had no role in SA’s souring ties with the US.
Farmers and farmworkers are also at risk. Citrus growers in the Western and Northern Cape — who export 7-million cartons of fruit to the US each year — may have to let this season’s harvest rot. The US accounts for 5%-6% of our citrus exports, and losing that market would render 500ha-1,000ha of farmland unprofitable. Towns such as Citrusdal will bear the brunt, with up to 32,000 direct jobs at risk.
Foreign policy without a plan
SA is in this position because of years of incoherent foreign policy and a failure to meet Agoa’s reform-based expectations. Under the government of national unity (GNU), things have worsened. Rather than implementing reforms or strengthening the country’s investment appeal, the GNU’s parties spend their energy attacking one another, at home and abroad.
SA ranks 64th out of 69 countries in the latest global competitiveness index. Policy uncertainty continues to deter investment. On the diplomatic front little has been done to reassure our major trade partners. The president’s visit to Washington earlier this year produced extensive media coverage but no new trade or investment agreements. Instead, key players in the GNU have used US engagements to score political points and spread disinformation, undermining SA’s credibility.
SA doesn’t even have an ambassador in Washington at present. Trade preferences such as Agoa depend on trust, and right now trust with SA is in short supply. Even last week’s last-ditch “condition precedent” agreement with the US trade representative rings hollow. Factory workers and farmworkers know better than to mistake press releases for progress. The department of trade, industry and competition has sat idle while the ground shifted beneath our exporters.
What must be done
SA now needs a dual-track approach. In the medium term it must diversify its export markets. Fast-tracking the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers real opportunities, particularly in agriculture and light manufacturing. But trade diversification is a slow and complex process. It took 16 years to re-open Thailand to SA apples. Most trade deals take five years or more to conclude.
In the short term, SA must engage Washington with clarity, unity and urgency. This means co-ordinated, high-level diplomacy, not PR visits or conflicting political signals. Other countries facing similar geopolitical challenges — including Vietnam, Indonesia, the UK and the EU — have managed to secure favourable terms. We have not.
Domestically, the expansion of the Automotive Production & Development Programme (APDP) is a step in the right direction. The launch of BMW’s plug-in hybrid line in Rosslyn shows promise. But these efforts must be backed by leadership that is capable and reform-focused. Those in government who are responsible for the dithering and policy paralysis must be removed.
Thousands of jobs are on the line. The time for excuses has long passed.
• Beesley is an ActionSA MP and member of parliament’s standing committee on public accounts (Scopa).
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