As you read this, hopefully under lights and with some confidence that there will be power when you plug in your laptop or turn on the kettle, take a moment to reflect on the security of the supply you may — or may not yet — take for granted.
Things are still far, far worse than you’re led to believe.
Ignoring the crumbling, insufficient distribution network (that is an entire series of articles on its own because it presents the biggest risk to our long-term energy security), one could be lulled into a false sense of security because load-shedding has been kept at bay.
The inference might be that “maybe things really are getting better”. But it’s not true, and even worse, despite talking up a great green game on international stages we are willingly and knowingly spending eye-watering amounts of money burning diesel to keep the country’s lights on.
As a country we learnt recently that in the first half of this year Eskom spent R4.76bn on diesel to run its open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) fleet to generate 810.24GWh of electricity. That’s almost double the amount spent last year. In fact, when looking across performance metrics, the ever-elusive energy availability factor (EAF) included, the fleet appears to be in a worse position than last year.
Climate change
It matters whether the power is coming from Medupi or OCGTs. Amid climate change and despite shifting personalities on the global stage there is increasing international pressure to transition away from burning fossil fuels to generate electricity. Government may well “encourage” the private sector to invest in renewables, but Eskom must also start its own energy transition in earnest. It is inevitable.
Yet in practice we burn diesel to the tune of almost R5bn in half a year. Consider the potential impact of that type of spend regarding the use of solar and batteries, for example. Solar panels generate energy from the sun, and large banks of powerful batteries (battery energy storage systems) store the energy for use when the sun isn’t shining or when additional power is required.
Sceptics say that if the power being generated by the sun is being used, there isn’t enough to store more for later. That comes down to engineering and the design of the system. As long as there is at least 10GW-12GW of “spare” solar, the system could charge 2GWh of batteries daily to discharge at night or during peak times.
Even if there is little to no buy-in for the need to shift towards renewable energy from an environmental perspective, the economics of it makes it an obvious choice.
The sums are astounding, and amplify the short-sightedness of the continued reliance on OCGTs. Assuming things stay the same (we have seen very little to assume they’ll get markedly better), keeping the lights on comes at a recurring cost of R4.76bn every six months, over and above the other generation.
That amount doesn’t factor in the maintenance of the giant diesel generators. It is a linear graph, not even considering oil price increases. Yet if we take a holistic, long-term view and compare the status quo to a solar and battery investment, we are left scratching our heads about why this hasn’t yet happened.
The minimum cost of a solar and battery installation to match the generation performance of the OCGT fleet in the first six months of this year is estimated at about R23bn, one-off. The maximum cost is about R33bn, one-off. The minimum solar cost breaks even in two and a half years, while the maximum solar cost breaks even in three and a half years. After that, the solar and battery option delivers enormous savings, up to R180bn over 20 years compared to what diesel would cost.
Even if there is little to no buy-in for the need to shift towards renewable energy from an environmental perspective, the economics of it makes it an obvious choice. Why would you choose to keep burning diesel?
It would be remiss of us not to acknowledge the green sprouts amid the coal and diesel mess, and the many independent power producers doing as much as they can to add sustainable energy into our power mix. Battery supply and engineering expertise is years ahead of where it was just five years ago.
However, until there is a genuine paradigm shift in the axis between government and Eskom, expect the status quo — and our fragile grip on energy security — to remain.
• Dickerson is MD at battery energy storage system supplier Revov.
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