The global transport sector, from cars to container ships, is responsible for about 37% of all greenhouse gas emissions. In SA it is the third-largest emitting sector after energy and industry, with road transport accounting for a staggering 90% of its emissions. This reality places immense pressure on the country’s transition to meet the net-zero carbon neutrality targets of the Paris Agreement by 2050.
Achieving SA’s net-zero ambitions will demand a significant transformation of the country’s transport systems. Current projections indicate that aligning with a decarbonisation pathway will require shifting 15%-20% of road freight and passenger traffic to rail. In addition, the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles would need to be phased out by 2035, coupled with a widespread uptake of zero-emission vehicles across the remaining segments of road transport. In aviation, a complete transition to sustainable aviation fuels will be necessary by 2050.
The domestic market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) — which includes battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles — is beginning to show early signs of traction. NEV sales reached 9,411 units in 2023, a substantial jump from the fewer than 500 units sold annually between 2017 and 2022. This momentum appears to be continuing, with 3,042 NEVs sold in the first quarter of 2024 alone.
Yet SA’s progress remains modest compared to global trends. Worldwide, nearly 18-million electric passenger vehicles were sold in 2024, up from just 2-million in 2019, raising the global electric vehicle (EV) market share from 2.4% to 21% in less than five years.
Accelerating the rollout of charging infrastructure is a crucial enabler for EVs to go mainstream. At present, SA has about 500 public EV charging stations. This is a significant increase, yet it is dwarfed by the country’s 4,800 licensed petrol stations. For perspective, China has about 1.15-million public charging stations, Europe has about 340,000 and the US has roughly 100,000. While our infrastructure is growing, the scale of the challenge in transforming our road transport is immense.
China is dominating the EV transition, accounting for 66% of global EV sales in 2024. Nearly every second car sold in China last year was electric. In Europe the figure was one in four, and in the US one in nine. SA is barely at the starting line. While the dream of a competitively priced, locally branded SA EV may be distant, it is imperative that the country shows ambition and defines its role in the future of road transport before it is left behind.
Beijing’s success is no accident. Its strategic thrust into clean energy technologies, which entails complete vertical integration in the EV supply chain, and the benefits of its sheer scale have changed the game. Chinese carmakers have produced a far greater range of affordable EVs than their Western counterparts, appealing directly to the mass market.
Recognising this global shift, the SA government has taken initial steps. In November 2023 the department of trade, industry & competition released its EV white paper, outlining a supportive policy framework. This was complemented by finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s announcement of a 150% tax rebate for automotive manufacturers who repurpose or establish new plants for EV production, a measure designed to ensure SA’s relevance on the global automotive stage.
However, significant contradictions in policy remain. To drive consumer adoption, government incentives are critical. The import tax on an EV is 25%, compared with 18% for an ICE vehicle. Furthermore, vehicles costing more than R700,000 are subject to an additional 17% ad valorem tax. A comprehensive tax reform regime is needed to make EVs more affordable and commercially viable for the average South African.
Beyond policy, practical challenges persist. The high cost of EVs remains a primary barrier. Achieving price parity between electric and ICE vehicles is essential. Simultaneously, SA must stabilise the electricity supply and ensure affordable access to debunk the range anxiety that comes with owning an EV.
One of the country’s greatest opportunities lies in its abundant renewable energy resources. As SA invests more in solar and wind power it can ensure EVs are powered by genuinely clean energy. This addresses a key critique of EVs: their life cycle emissions. While the carbon emissions from manufacturing an EV can be 15%-60% higher than for a conventional car, largely due to the mining and processing of raw materials such as lithium and cobalt for batteries, the environmental benefit is realised during its operational life. The ultimate green credential of an EV depends entirely on the cleanliness of the grid it is charged on.
Finally, SA must heed lessons from nations such as Norway, where 88% of electricity is generated from renewable sources. In stark contrast, SA remains reliant on coal for 75% of its electricity. If EVs are charged with electricity generated from coal, their environmental benefit is severely diminished. This is the central challenge in achieving the government’s climate goals. The road to an electric future is not just about the vehicle itself, but about the energy that powers it.
• Mabasa is an executive manager in the office of the deputy minister of mineral & petroleum resources and co-chair of the Brics Youth Council.
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