The ANC is no stranger to internal factional struggles and leadership contests. Yet recent moves by the US, spearheaded by President Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress, have introduced a potent external factor that could reshape ANC politics in unprecedented ways: the threat of targeted sanctions on senior party leaders.
The ANC traditionally selects its leaders through an internal, constitutionally governed process involving the national executive committee (NEC), electoral committees and votes at national conferences. This process depends heavily on factional alliances, party loyalty and regional power bases. Historically, while external geopolitical dynamics have influenced SA broadly, the ANC’s top leadership has been chosen domestically, free from overt foreign intervention.
This tradition coexists with internal reforms. At the 55th national conference in December 2022, for instance, the ANC amended its leadership selection rules to disqualify candidates facing credible corruption charges or serious criminal allegations from standing for top posts. Campaign finance transparency standards were also tightened. Prominent figures such as Bathabile Dlamini were barred in that cycle due to corruption-related allegations.
Such measures have been designed to project an image of internal commitment to leadership integrity, while in practice their efficacy in curbing entrenched factionalism and corruption within the ANC remains questionable. These reforms now face the added complication of external pressure from the US.
Earlier this year the House of Representatives advanced the US-SA Bilateral Relations Review Act — legislation seeking to sanction senior ANC officials accused, on the basis of credible evidence, of corruption or human rights abuses.
Supported largely by Republicans aligned with Trump, this bill represents more than a mere diplomatic inconvenience; it acts as a strategic instrument to exert pressure on the ANC’s internal power dynamics at a critical moment, as the party moves towards its 56th national conference, expected in late 2027. The upcoming conference is expected to play a decisive role in succession planning and in setting the party’s platform for the 2029 general election.
Sanctions typically limit individuals’ access to international financial systems, freeze assets and impose travel bans. For ANC leaders implicated in corruption scandals or controversial governance decisions, these constraints impair campaign funding, sour public opinion and compromise general political legitimacy both at home and abroad. In essence, sanctioned leaders may find themselves sidelined and neutered in their quest for party leadership.
Several high-profile ANC figures face persistent allegations of corruption, financial improprieties or questionable foreign policy stances that make them potential targets for US sanctions. The threat looms large: sanctioned politicians risk losing critical internal support, and alienating party elders and an electorate fearful of economic repercussions. This may give an advantage to politicians with cleaner records or more international acceptability, in effect tilting the leadership race.
This uncomfortable reality has not gone unnoticed by the ANC, which in recent days has walked back some of its earlier harsh criticisms of the US amid the looming threat of sanctions. This follows SA’s top military official, Gen Rudzani Maphwanya, visiting Iran and calling for deeper military ties, heightening diplomatic strain with the US.
ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, a presidential hopeful, has publicly embraced this external pressure with defiance, stating, “If it means we are going to suffer through sanctions as leaders of the ANC, let it be.” His stance underscores both the seriousness of the threat and the ANC’s resistance narrative, but the political reality is that sanctions may affect campaign viability and negotiations within factional power structures. This has the potential to open space for “neutral” or less controversial contenders, and as much as the ANC has been at pains to portray a united front in its rhetoric towards the US, another splintering of the party cannot be ruled out.
Trump’s administration and congressional allies have demonstrated readiness to use executive sanction powers as quick-response tools. This increases the risk and immediacy for implicated ANC leaders, whose campaigns might be disrupted midcourse — potentially well before the conclusion of Ramaphosa’s term as ANC president.
• Kajee is a lecturer at Southern Utah University, a non-resident research fellow at the Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy, and a researcher for the SeaLight maritime transparency initiative at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation.
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