What if a company’s decline shows up not in the financials — but in its culture?
In the 14th century, North African historian Ibn Khaldūn wrote The Muqaddimah, an extraordinary analysis of how civilisations rise, stagnate and fall. Often considered the world’s first theory of historical cycles, his insights have surprising relevance for today’s business leaders.
Why should investors care about a 14-century historian? Khaldūn’s central thesis is this: civilisations rise through asabiyyah — a shared spirit of cohesion, urgency and purpose — and fall when comfort breeds complacency. Urgency fades. Bureaucracy replaces bravery. Culture erodes before earnings do.
Modern corporations follow a similar arc. The founder’s mission gives way to middle management. Purpose erodes into process. What was once a movement becomes a machine.
Intel — a Khaldūnian case study
Intel was once Silicon Valley’s desert tribe. Founded by Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore and led by the iconic Andy Grove, it embodied technical excellence, urgency and grit.
Then the empire aged. After dominating the microprocessor market for decades, Intel turned down Apple, missed mobile, lagged in AI, and surrendered semiconductor leadership to TSMC. Bureaucracy multiplied. Mission clarity blurred.
In 2021 Intel attempted renewal by reinstating former chief technology officer Pat Gelsinger as CEO. But after his forced departure in December 2024 Lip-Bu Tan was appointed earlier this year.
The US government followed with an $8.9bn investment for a 9.9% equity stake to anchor national semiconductor sovereignty. Intel is now deploying $100bn into manufacturing facilities in Arizona and Ohio — but remains behind TSMC in critical 3nm process technology.
As Stratechery’s Ben Thompson notes, Intel’s attempted renewal is no longer just a corporate matter — it’s a geopolitical one. Semiconductors now underpin AI development and national security. The question is no longer just financial: it’s whether Intel can rebuild its cultural core before its relevance fades further.
A generation ago Intel’s market value was 5.8 times bigger than that of TSMC; today TSMC is 11.2 times bigger than Intel. As the sun set on Intel’s empire, it rose at TSMC.
The Khaldūnian question is whether asabiyyah can be rebuilt. Khaldūn didn’t think so. He argued that once the original fire was lost, renewal was rare. Civilisations declined and were replaced.
But companies aren’t bound by history. Unlike empires they have tools for renewal: equity incentives, reorganisation and fresh leadership. Some succeed. Apple was reborn with Steve Jobs. Microsoft rediscovered urgency under Satya Nadella. Amazon retained its “Day 1” culture, even at scale.
But how do we distinguish true cultural renewal from cosmetic rebranding? The answer separates enduring value from decline.
What to watch for — signals of cultural decay
Khaldūnian decline manifests subtly, long before balance sheets suffer. Watch for these patterns:
- Founder-led urgency vs executive stagnation;
- Engineering retention vs middle-management bloat;
- Research & development velocity vs financial engineering;
- Mission language vs margin obsession; and
- Product shipping vs slide deck proliferation.
These cultural shifts often precede financial distress. Investors who track them gain early insight into whether an organisation’s asabiyyah still burns.
A growing body of evidence supports this intuition. Bain & Co found that founder-led companies returned four times more over 25 years. Studies across Harvard, Purdue and Babson College show more than 3% annual alpha and vastly superior performance over professional CEOs.
But conventional explanations — equity alignment, domain knowledge, long-term thinking — may miss the deeper truth. These are symptoms. Asabiyyah may be the cause.
Founders carry memory, mission and sacrifice. They don’t just manage systems — they transmit purpose. And that purpose, not just capital, creates resilience.
Culture isn’t just “soft”. It’s alpha generating. In a world of macro volatility and margin compression, the clearest leading indicator of durability may be intangible: the spirit with which a company operates.
So the question isn’t just: “is the fire still lit?” It’s: “who is tending it and do they remember why it was lit in the first place?”
• Salaam is chief investment officer of Vunani Fund Managers.
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