NICHOLAS SHUBITZ: The wisdom of improved China-India relations

An alignment between Asia’s ancient civilisations could unleash a new wave of global growth

In the 7th century a Chinese scholar and Buddhist monk named Xuanzang, also known by his Sanskrit name Moksadeva, defied travel bans to visit India in search of ancient manuscripts on Buddhism. While in India the monk learnt Sanskrit and returned with more than 600 texts loaded onto 20 horses, which he translated into Chinese.

Xuanzang’s translation of the Heart Sutra became the foundation for all Chinese interpretations of the text and remains the version recited across China, Vietnam, Korea and Japan. His travels along the Silk Road, together with the myths that later surrounded them, also inspired the Ming dynasty novel, Journey to the West, widely regarded as a masterpiece of Chinese literature. 

This story is a reminder that India and China have far deeper bonds than many realise. Despite being separated by the world’s highest mountain range, these Brics nations represent ancient civilisations with a relationship measured in millennia.

The spread of Buddhism from India to China had a profound impact on China’s evolution over the past 2,000 years, and the country would not have been the same without this influence. Similarly, many Chinese inventions travelled the silk road to India and there are even references to China in the ancient Indian epic Mahabharata, which dates back to the 5th century BCE. 

This is why the news of a return to cross border trade and direct air travel between the Asian giants is such a significant development. As the two largest economies in Brics it is important that these countries interact on the level of people-to-people exchange to realise a new vision of co-operation for the mutual benefit of their almost 3-billion combined citizens.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said constructive ties between India and China could contribute “to regional as well as global peace and prosperity”, with India suggesting the “three mutuals” — mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interest — as the foundation of productive China-India relations. China has agreed, noting that instead of being rivals the two countries should be partners.

This is a stunning turnaround in relations between the two countries after the border clash in 2020 saw bilateral ties sink to almost unprecedented lows. After the skirmish, which led to the highest loss of life in the conflict in two decades, Chinese apps were banned in India, high-profile investment projects were cancelled and diplomatic channels were frozen.

But after last year’s high-profile Modi and China President Xi Jinping encounter at the Brics summit in Russia, both leaders urged their teams to begin the task of rebuilding trust and seeking common ground. Since then diplomats and military officers on both sides have been engaged in the patient work of trying to find solutions to the border dispute so that it no longer undermines other areas of co-operation. 

The pace of recent developments has been quite remarkable, with India and China negotiating a final settlement of their long-disputed border. The effort will not be straightforward, but progress is being made thanks to sincere diplomatic efforts from both sides. This has resulted in progress in other areas, with diplomatic and economic ties being rapidly restored and strengthened.    

India’s defence, foreign and national security chiefs have all travelled to Beijing for talks. In turn, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi made his first visit to India in three years. Modi then visited Tianjin for the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summit, marking his first trip to China in seven years.

These meetings were more than just gestures of goodwill and have been followed by tangible efforts to restore ties. For example, Indian pilgrims have been allowed back into Tibet after a five-year ban, visa restrictions have been lifted, overland trade routes have been reopened, and Beijing has agreed to relax curbs on exports of rare earths and fertiliser to India.

It would be tempting to credit Brics solidarity with this thaw, but the irony is that Washington may have played the more decisive role. Years of US pressure on China, including trade wars, sanctions on firms such as Huawei and broader decoupling measures, have recently been matched by Washington’s surprisingly confrontational approach towards India.   

The Biden administration’s legal assault on Gautam Adani, one of Modi’s closest allies, was only the start, with US support for new anti-Indian regimes in Pakistan and Bangladesh playing a role in worsening ties. Trump’s tariffs on India due to its crude oil imports from Russia is simply the latest crisis, confirming the impression that Washington will never treat India as a genuine partner. 

That said, it would be wrong to view this rapprochement as solely a reaction to US pressure. The deeper logic is economic. Major Indian industrial groups already work with Chinese businesses to produce electric vehicles and solar technology, and a further thaw in relations will help India gain more manufacturing jobs while enhancing its energy security.

As relations continue to improve, Chinese manufacturers may invest in joint ventures in India and then, instead of importing Chinese goods, India could start producing them. This would improve the balance of trade between the two nations, helping India, which is already growing at more than 6% per annum, boost growth and wages even further.   

While Indian companies benefit from access to Chinese capital and technology, Chinese firms stand to gain too. Beijing recognises that with an ageing population, domestic consumption led growth may not be sufficient. India, with its low labour costs and an expanding consumer base, could consequently act as both a producer and consumer of Chinese goods and services.

India has excellent demographics but insufficient capital to fully industrialise its economy and reach full employment. This is where Beijing comes in. With Chinese manufacturing know-how and capital, India could sustain double-digit growth rates, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. This is exactly what happened when the West invested in China.   

No other country besides China could offer India the same opportunity to become integrated within the global manufacturing supply chain. At the same time, China will benefit from working with the fastest growing major economy in the world, with India providing not just a market but also a platform for China to remain competitive as an exporter to the rest of the world.

Naturally, obstacles remain. The Himalayan frontier, water politics and China’s relations with Pakistan will remain areas of concern for New Delhi. Meanwhile, the ongoing competition for influence in neighbouring countries such as Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka could certainly complicate the picture.

Nevertheless, the logic of co-operation is difficult to ignore. An alignment between Asia’s two giants could unleash a new wave of global economic growth while raising living standards on both sides of the Himalayan border. India and China are clearly beginning a new page in their storied history thanks to smart diplomacy — and perhaps a little ancient Buddhist wisdom.

• Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.


Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.

Comment icon