US President Donald Trump has demanded the Taliban grant the US access to Bagram, a major airbase it abandoned during the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021. But China has already invested considerable economic and diplomatic resources in keeping the US out and may have the upper hand in a competition for influence in the country.
When Taliban fighters swept into Kabul in August 2021, this brought an end to the US-backed government and two decades of American occupation. For Afghans, that moment marked the conclusion of years of war and promises of nation-building that largely failed to materialise.
However, for the US, Afghanistan continues to represent an unresolved chapter, with Bagram Air Base at its centre. From its runways, Washington projected power throughout the region, while its prison complex gained notoriety for indefinite detention and torture. To the Taliban, the base represents foreign occupation, while the US sees Bagram as an outpost against China.
Bagram’s contested history
This contest over Bagram is hardly new. The Soviets originally helped build up the airfield in the 1950s, and by the late 1970s it had become a central hub for the Red Army’s occupation. After Moscow’s forces withdrew in 1989, the airfield became a prize over which Afghan factions fought bitterly during the 1990s. The Taliban eventually seized control, only to be displaced when US forces invaded after September 2001.
During the two decades that followed, Washington invested heavily in the site, adding modern runways, fortified hangars and a vast detention compound. Yet in 2021, with Taliban forces advancing rapidly, American troops abandoned Bagram virtually overnight, leaving behind a heavily fortified airfield that instantly passed into Taliban hands.
Afghanistan is proud of its reputation as the “graveyard of empires”, with British, Soviet Union and American forces all forced to leave. As such, the Taliban leadership has made clear it has no intention of allowing US troops to return. Although Kabul would like its assets unfrozen, aid flows resumed and the lifting of the Taliban’s designation as a terrorist organisation, these concessions are unlikely to result in a renewed American military presence at Bagram.
Strategic geography
The importance of the base lies in its geography. Located in Parwan province, Bagram sits near the capital and along Afghanistan’s main transportation arteries, in proximity to Russia, China and Iran. Trump himself has emphasised this geography in pressing his case, noting that Bagram lies only “an hour away” from Chinese nuclear facilities.
Such statements underscore Washington’s desire to counter Beijing’s regional influence, while neighbouring powers appear united in their determination to keep the US out. Beijing has been particularly outspoken, arguing that Afghanistan’s future should rest in the hands of the Afghan people. Meanwhile, analysts agree that China’s influence in the country gives it significant leverage.
Should the Taliban ever consider granting Washington renewed access to the base, China could retaliate by suspending mining contracts, imposing restrictions on trade, or severing diplomatic recognition. These measures would undermine the Taliban, which has come to rely on Beijing for the economic growth and international recognition required to consolidate its rule.
Military risks
Against this backdrop, any American effort to return to Bagram would inevitably be interpreted as a direct attempt to counter Beijing’s influence. At the same time, reoccupying the base would require a large military deployment, advanced missile defences and logistical support on a scale that could easily be portrayed as a new invasion.
The dangers facing such a mission are stark. Extremist groups like Isis and al-Qaeda remain active across Afghan territory, making any foreign outpost a natural target for attacks. Beyond insurgent threats, a US contingent stationed at Bagram would also fall within striking distance of Iranian missiles and drones.
Taken together, these factors suggest that Trump’s proposal is less a practical military plan than a political gesture. A statement of intent designed to project toughness abroad and restore his image at home. By demanding the return of Bagram, Trump seeks to recast the disorderly US exit of 2021 as a failure of the Biden administration that only he can reverse.
China asserts strategic influence
Meanwhile, Beijing has made its position plain. Chinese officials have repeatedly warned that any return of foreign troops would destabilise the region, violate Afghan sovereignty and repeat the mistakes that plunged Afghanistan into decades of conflict and poverty.
While China frames its objections from an Afghan perspective, the return of US troops carries genuine security risks for Beijing, placing American troops near China’s borders, complicating Beijing’s ties with the Taliban, and potentially triggering an arms race across Central Asia.
This is why China wasted little time in re-establishing diplomatic channels, becoming the first country to post an envoy to Kabul following the US withdrawal. This pragmatic engagement was not driven by ideological sympathy but by a clear-eyed recognition that Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, geography and stability were too important to ignore.
The economic stakes are particularly significant. Afghanistan possesses vast reserves of copper, lithium, rare earths and other resources essential to the global energy transition. Chinese companies have already secured concessions, most notably the Mes Aynak copper mine, one of the world’s largest, slated to begin production next year.
Beyond resources, China also views its narrow border with Afghanistan, the Wakhan Corridor, as a critical national security concern. Beijing believes co-operating with the Taliban could be crucial in preventing the flow of militants, refugees and narcotics into Xinjiang.
Contrasting strategies
The contrast between American and Chinese strategies could hardly be sharper. Since 2021 Washington and its allies have frozen more than $9bn of Afghan reserves, depriving Kabul of vital funds for reconstruction. Sanctions have isolated Afghan banks, harmed commerce and left ordinary Afghans struggling to survive.
Beijing has pursued the opposite course. It has signed investment agreements, pressed for the release of frozen assets, and expanded commercial ties. In 2023 bilateral trade between China and Afghanistan more than doubled, with Afghan products gaining duty-free access to a Chinese market, while Chinese firms embed themselves deeply in Afghanistan’s economic future.
A return of US forces to Afghanistan remains unlikely, and Trump may simply be performing for a domestic audience. Nevertheless, the interest in the Bagram Airbase illustrates the geographic importance of Afghanistan in the global competition for influence between the US and China.
• Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.
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