The battle for the Treasury remains a political fight but the patronage faction seems to have been weakened, writes Steven Friedman
Thankfully, to control the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) is not necessarily to control the country. Which is why politics, not misuse of the law will decide the Treasury’s fate.
It is hardly original to point out that the NPA’s decision to prosecute Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan is a new step in the attempt by an ANC faction and its private sponsors to grab hold of the Treasury. No one except the faction’s hired political hands and one confused opposition politician seriously believe Gordhan is guilty of anything, except preventing the Treasury from capture by those who want to turn it into their piggybank. And this means the Treasury is not at all certain to be captured.
This is, of course, not the first attempt to seize the Treasury. The ploy was tried last December when then finance minister Nhlanhla Nene was fired because he said no when the patronage barons needed him to say yes. Then the attempt failed after only a few days because it ran up against an alliance stretching from the left of the trade union movement through to the major banks, and including half of the ANC’s leadership.
The barons were not strong enough then to capture the Treasury. What has changed to make them strong enough to do it now?
If anything, the patronage faction seems weaker now than it was last December. The local election results destroyed its strategy of guaranteeing the ANC’s re-election by delivering a huge rural vote, so it no longer holds the key to an ANC electoral majority.
This is presumably why its opponents are increasingly making life difficult for it on issues ranging from the SABC board to Speaker Baleka Mbete’s attempt to send the state capture report back to the public protector. If anything, they seem less likely to be able to take over the Treasury now than in December.
The counter-argument is that they can now use the law as an excuse. But this only makes sense if charging Gordhan convinces the ANC politicians, unionists and business leaders who successfully faced down the last attempt that they should not oppose this one. If it does not, this attempt to seize the Treasury will meet the same resistance — with the same effect — as the last one.
Clearly, the prosecution has not changed the minds of anyone in the ANC. A chorus of senior ANC politicians including three of its top six, chief whip Jackson Mthembu and economic policy committee chair Enoch Godongwana, as well as the South African Communist Party, have publicly backed the minister, suggesting that the prosecution is political. Even President Jacob Zuma, who has made no secret of his wish to replace Gordhan, has been forced to issue a statement backing him. The pro-Gordhan voices are emboldened both because they can rely on influential support outside government and because they can argue, with justification, that capturing the Treasury could cost the ANC its majority. This has surely raised the political costs of removing the minister.
The response from labour and business has been more muted, but there is little sign that either has changed tack because the NPA claims that an alleged breach of personnel procedure is a criminal act. Labour federation Cosatu did not say that the prosecution was political, but it did support Gordhan, as it did in August when this attack on the Treasury began. Business has not responded loudly or clearly, but that is rarely how it operates — its influence is generally wielded in private meetings, not ringing statements.
If, as seems likely, Gordhan’s political support remains intact, the costs of taking over Treasury are as great as they were last December. It would still anger a large chunk of the ANC and the union movement, and would still alarm business. And now it might also mean the loss of an election.
Because the prosecution ploy has fooled just about no one, the battle for the Treasury remains a political fight, not a legal battle. If those who want to protect the national purse are as determined and united as they were last year, they have every chance of fending off this attack.
The future of the Treasury is not, as much of what we are told suggests, solely in the hands of the patronage politicians and their backers. They can be defeated if those who want to protect it continue to draw a line in the sand — and play their hand effectively enough to ensure that line is not crossed.
Friedman is director of the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for the Study of Democracy.
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