This ANC is still our ANC, axed finance minister Pravin Gordhan proclaimed on Saturday at a memorial service for Ahmed Kathrada at the Johannesburg City Hall, packed to the rafters with activists old and new.
The consensus that held the broad church in the ANC together for decades no longer exists. There are two ANCs, if not three or four. It is divided and leaderless.
Gordhan has become the latest rallying point for the disgruntled in the ANC, those who have fallen by the wayside in President Jacob Zuma’s decade-long emasculation of the 105-year-old liberation movement to a point where it is no longer recognisable even to those who helped build and shape it after 1994.
The coming months will represent either the beginning of the long road to recovery or the final nail in the party’s coffin as it heads to its elective conference in December.
If Zuma’s powerful faction solidifies its grip on the party, a further split is on the cards.
It is a battle between the "progressive ANC" and the "rent seekers and corrupt", between the "old ANC", who claim to uphold the rule of law and the Constitution, and those seeking to abandon it to enrich themselves and their families.
The previous two splits in the party, which produced the Congress of the People and the EFF, did not result in the ANC’s support dipping below 60% at the polls, but a third split under Zuma is almost certain to achieve that.
The party’s support in the 2016 local government election dropped to 55% and the trajectory is likely to be mirrored in the 2019 elections. It will lose power nationally if a split causes even 6% or 7% of its supporters to vote elsewhere or boycott the polls.
The fightback against this outcome did not begin after Gordhan’s removal last week but long before — by public servants who noticed the growing power of the Gupta family on Zuma’s administration.
The fightback did not begin after Gordhan’s removal last week but long before — by public servants
Non-governmental organisations twigged on and provided support, with the Helen Suzman Foundation and Freedom Under Law’s intervention on the Berning Ntlemeza case the latest example of their contributions.
Old activists went public with their dissatisfaction after the Constitutional Court judgment on Nkandla. Veterans began speaking out. Funerals once again became platforms for hard truths, as Sipho Pityana did at the laying to rest of the late premier, ambassador and minister of sport Makhenkesi Stofile, culminating in the formation of the Save SA campaign.
The battle in Cosatu was a forerunner of the bigger fight in the ANC. Key Zuma detractors, including a union of 340,000 members, were unceremoniously dumped by the federation. The purged unionists are now working with civil society and Zuma’s opponents to "organise, communicate and mobilise".
But Cosatu itself shifted and in 2016 its central executive committee called on Zuma to step down after the local government elections.
The South African Communist Party (SACP) on Friday called on Zuma to resign — a bold move from his once most ardent defenders.
The SACP will hold an extended politburo meeting from Monday to decide how it will work towards ensuring this happens.
The ANC’s veterans are pursuing their demand for a national consultative conference to convince errant members of the errors of their ways. The SACP will hold a "national imbizo" at the end of April, which will be open to all "progressive forces", to discuss the direction of the "revolution".
Save SA is calling for the formation of a national governance crisis committee to find ways to put an end to corruption and the pillaging of the public purse. This too should be a broad front of all political persuasions.
"I am unashamedly encouraging mass mobilisation," Gordhan told the Kathrada memorial service.
The SACP’s Solly Mapaila put it simply: "It’s time for the ANC to choose between Zuma and the people … between the Guptas and the people."
Zuma backers shrug off the intensity of the battle, saying it represents those who are aware of their impending defeat at the national conference.
Brian Hlongwa delivered a message on behalf of the Gauteng leadership: "There is no struggle without casualties … no matter how wide the patronage network, no matter how powerful others think they are … they may break our bones, but our souls are not for sale. Without the people, there is no ANC."
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