The machines are coming. This is not a drill. Nor is it the script of a movie. The vanguard has already infiltrated and yet we remain unprepared for it. We cannot answer the questions: will a machine take my job? What dangers do these machines pose to society? What should we study if we want to be employable in 20 years?
And it isn’t just in SA, although we seem to be acutely unable to see the wood for the trees. A study by the US National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine, published in the prestigious journal Nature, has found that the economic giant is not prepared either.
"Policy makers are flying blind into what has been called the fourth industrial revolution," write study chairmen Tom Mitchell and Erik Brynjolfsson in an accompanying op-ed. "There is a dramatic shortage of information and data about the exact state of the workforce and automation, so policy makers don’t know answers to even basic questions such as which types of technologies are currently having the greatest impact on jobs and what new technologies are likely to have the greatest impact in the next few years," says Mitchell.
The greatest threat machines and artificial intelligence pose isn’t that they will become smarter than us and start exterminating humans (I’m not saying it is impossible, just very unlikely; one should always hedge one’s bets.) It is the social turmoil they bring as people lose their jobs and the social fabric begins to shear.
This new report has added a new layer to that. We worry about technology’s effect on jobs in the next five years, perhaps the next 10, but not beyond that. Where do you see yourself in 2037? Will you still be trying to eke out a living? If you are lucky, you will probably be in a job that does not exist now. Except journalism. Contrary to prevailing sentiment, I remain optimistic about journalism — machines aren’t curious enough to replace good journalism yet.
If you’re unlucky, you’ll be wishing you had upskilled for a job you didn’t know would exist.
In terms of science and technology policy, African countries want to use technology to leapfrog developmental stages, missing the industrial revolution part of it and going straight to the knowledge economy. Former AU Commission chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said in 2015: "Everything that is a priority for the AU needs science…. I cannot think of anything we are doing that does not need science."
That’s all well and good. The technology will come to us — probably from a foreign power sold at an exorbitant mark-up — but are we prepared for what it will do to our society when it is introduced, as well as in 20 years?
Look at transport company Uber and the war metered taxi drivers and policymakers are waging against it. They’ll probably have an aneurysm when someone tries to introduce driverless cars.
Machines are able to do jobs that 10 years ago — possibly even five — were solely within the ambit of humans: pattern recognition,
problem solving, language processing. The report has several recommendations, including augmenting labour data collection systems to look at what technology is doing to the job market.
The most interesting proposal is that there is a need for change in the way children are taught. Schools should focus on uniquely human characteristics, the report says.
Creativity, adaptability and social skills will come at a premium in this rapidly approaching world, and we need to start promoting them now.
• Wild is a science journalist and author
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