There is no shortage of topics to write about as SA lives through its most challenging time since PW Botha’s infamous 1985 Rubicon speech. The narratives of white monopoly capital, radical economic transformation, land appropriation, nationalisation and others — an obvious political sleight of hand — have taken over from the urgent debates we should be having about economic growth, job creation and education.
What can turn the tide? I think it is time to revisit Clem Sunter’s High Road and Low Road scenarios. My High Road scenario for SA looks something like this: business, civil society organisations, trade unions and opposition parties unite, taking a strong stand against the moral corruption of the government.
Some of this involves psychologically unifying the nation by encouraging mass protests, while other activities span financial support for on-the-ground "foot soldiers" and advertising campaigns that educate the population about the true economic cost of radical narratives. Funds will be withheld from the government and state-owned enterprises until governance has been restored, court cases prosecuting corruption will be funded, universities will be used as centres for dialogue about the economy and politics and there will be support for a strong judiciary and free media.
As the protest noise intensifies, the international community shuns the South African government’s overtures. A strong, unified stand acts as a catalyst for change, forcing ANC members of Parliament and the party’s national executive committee to reconsider their choices and decisions, voting current structures out of power.
New leadership rises within the ANC to "recapture" the once-proud liberation movement. Strong boards of directors are appointed to lead state-owned enterprises. The Treasury is once again staffed by experienced people with international credibility.
The National Development Plan, or a version thereof, is implemented to jump-start the economy. Plans are put in place to deal with inequality, including renewed focus on the provision of relevant, accessible education for all. The 2019 elections come and go, peaceful and fair.
Clawing our way back out of "junk" status takes longer, but with sufficient effort, we eventually prove to the international community that SA is a worthy long-term investment destination, leading to faster growth and job creation. SA flourishes.
All credit ratings agencies peg us at 'junk'. Foreign investment flows out of the country. The economy flatlines as corporate investment dries up. Inflation continues to increase, as do interest rates
My Low Road scenario is nothing dramatic; it envisages a slow erosion of our economy, the Constitution, the judiciary and free media. As the ANC focuses on factional fighting and corruption thrives, quality of life for all declines. The value of the rand drops, inflation rises — as do taxes and interest rates — infrastructure deteriorates and basic services decline in quality and quantity. All this happens slowly.
All credit ratings agencies peg us at "junk". Foreign investment flows out of the country. The economy flatlines as corporate investment dries up. Inflation continues to increase, as do interest rates. Racial tensions increase as the government continues to use "white monopoly capital" and other slogans to distract from their own inattention to the plight of all South Africans.
The independence of the Reserve Bank is slowly assaulted. As we progress towards the 2019 elections, unemployment increases and the government spends more and more on paying off debt and is unable to raise new funding. The social welfare system becomes unaffordable, leaving more people destitute. Healthcare systems for the poor go next.
SA signs an unaffordable nuclear deal with Russia. The banking system comes under strain after the Financial Intelligence Centre Amendment Bill is diluted to exclude uncomfortable clauses about the scrutiny of politically exposed persons.
Crime rates increase. The education system deteriorates, leaving another generation of youth ill-equipped to deal with the challenges posed by new technologies. Everyone feels poorer and is poorer but lives in hope of the 2019 elections.
But what then? Anything could happen. We could go down the same road as Turkey, with a state of emergency declared ahead of the election date, rigged vote counting, further deterioration of confidence and an eventual economic collapse.
Or perhaps the ANC loses power and a new coalition government emerges, founded on unstable alliances and mixed policies. Compromises are made about the future direction of the country.
The steady decline continues. SA withers.
We are at a crossroads: the future is not tomorrow. We are living it now. The choices we make now and the actions we take will shape this country for generations.
• Wierzycka (@Magda_Wierzycka) is Sygnia Group CEO.
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