The provincial power blocs in the ANC are shifting. This means that it is difficult to determine who will emerge as the victorious ANC leader in December: Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma or Cyril Ramaphosa. The balance of forces is hard to pin down, despite increasing evidence of significant shifts.
The ANC’s Northern Cape conference, which is under way in Colesberg, provides a glimpse into how messy the race has become. The province sent the smallest delegation to the ANC national conference in 2012, but its factions are fighting bitterly.
Premier Sylvia Lucas was put forward by the ANC Women’s League to oppose provincial secretary Zamani Saul — who has been critical of the Zuma-run administration, particularly after the 2016 local government elections — for the top position.
Her backers stalled the conference, resulting in two postponements before it was able to convene this week. She reshuffled her cabinet without consulting the party, abandoning a long-held tradition and violating a resolution reaffirmed after Zuma’s reshuffle two months ago that consultation is a "principle" not a "favour".
Conference delegates expressed shock and dismay about the reshuffle, which Lucas’s backers claim was supported by the president.
A victory for the anti-Zuma group in the province is almost assured.
It will be a psychological victory over the Dlamini-Zuma grouping, with its first test of a female candidate falling flat. Not one of the nine provinces is led by a woman.
Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma have launched their campaigns. Other contenders — Jeff Radebe, Lindiwe Sisulu and Mathews Phosa — are set to play a supporting role, which will simply be to split Ramaphosa’s support. The unity option is proving pretty difficult.
The Eastern Cape ANC will hold its conference in about July and it will also be a fight between groupings aligned in some way to the national candidates.
The Gauteng ANC’s research shows it will lose the province in 2019. It has alerted senior party officials to this and has been rather mute about its leadership preferences although it’s an open secret that it is likely to back Ramaphosa.
But Gauteng has long been alone in its anti-Zuma posture; it is only recently that other structures and alliance partners — Cosatu and the South African Communist Party — have publicly taken a similar stance.
Limpopo is Ramaphosa’s home province and if he is endorsed by any structure in the ANC, it should be this one. But the battle for dominance between the factions in Limpopo is fierce. Its chairman, Premier Stan Mathabatha, is solidly behind Ramaphosa, but faces a fierce pushback from provincial secretary Knox Seabi.
North West ANC leader Premier Supra Mahumapelo is solidly anti-Ramaphosa, but he too is facing challenges to his power in his province.
The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal is massively divided, but it is likely to back Dlamini-Zuma, by hook or by crook — probably the latter
The Free State is backing Dlamini-Zuma, but it seems its chairman, Premier Ace Magashule, has fallen out with Mpumalanga Premier David Mabuza, who seems to be playing all sides to ensure his position in the party’s top six.
The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal is massively divided, but it is likely to back Dlamini-Zuma, by hook or by crook — probably the latter. A disgruntled faction is still intent on contesting the provincial conference at which Zuma loyalist Sihle Zikalala emerged as chairman.
The ANC in the Western Cape is in too much of a mess to matter much to national politics.
The ANC Youth League has not yet pronounced on its preferred candidate. It may yet surprise, because earlier in 2017 its president, Collen Maine, called for a candidate younger than Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma.
The ground is shifting under Zuma. He was heckled and prevented from speaking in the Free State and was unable to address the Vuwani community in Limpopo. Gauteng is hostile to him, so he frequently retreats to the comforting adulation he enjoys in KwaZulu-Natal.
The courts continue to keep Michael Hulley and the state attorneys scrambling to ensure Zuma doesn’t face corruption and fraud charges.
The truth is, Zuma is done. He is effectively in the departure lounge, probably destined for Dubai. He can still inflict damage, but how much more? After his move to capture the Treasury, his Gupta checklist is done and dusted. Every turn he now takes is contested, challenged and questioned. His final months as ANC president are going to be increasingly uncomfortable.
So the real fight for his successor has begun and the decision rests in ANC structures. If the Northern Cape is any indicator, the battle is going to be bruising.
• Marrian is political editor.
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