Before 2016, it felt as if SA was a deer in the headlights — there was a numbing complacency. Now the prevailing political mood is one of defiance. Defiance in the face of paralysis in the ANC to act against a rogue president. Defiance by the ANC’s parliamentary caucus against the expectation that it cast a blind eye on the excesses of this administration. Defiance by ANC structures against a narrative developed by a UK-based public relations firm at the behest of an Indian family whose citizenship is at best dubious.
President Jacob Zuma’s defiance of the majority view in the ANC over white monopoly capital was on display this week when he addressed party structures in the Western Cape. Party MPs also demonstrate a desire for defiance after being hamstrung from speaking publicly for so long.
The big question we are facing is whether this defiance will extend to the motion of no confidence in Zuma early in August.
It is unlikely that enough ANC MPs will defy the party position to vote out their president, even if the ballot is secret. But even if a few take that drastic step, the country and our democracy would be the better for it. The pain expressed by ANC MP Makhosi Khoza in venting her feelings about the president this week was illustrative. She hit hard, describing Zuma as one who at best harvests women, who mocks black intellectuals and who haunts the country he is meant to have pledged allegiance to.
The ANC’s position on the motion of no confidence also marks a tacit defiance of the Constitutional Court’s articulation of what the responsibilities of MPs should be in such a vote. At its policy conference, head of organising Fikile Mbalula warned that those who voted against the party line would be “committing political suicide” and inviting their expulsion from the party.
Yet the courts have made it clear that a motion of no confidence in the head of state is a “very important matter” and the will of political parties is not what should always prevail.
“If the will of political parties were to always prevail, the Constitution would probably have required political parties to determine which way they want to vote on issues and through their chief whips signify support or opposition by submitting the list of members who would be present when voting takes place,” Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng said in his judgment on the United Democratic Movement’s court bid on the secret-ballot issue.
“But, because it is individual members who really have to vote, provisions are couched in the language that recognises the possibility of majorities supporting the removal of the president and the speaker.
“Conceptually, those majorities could only be possible if members of the ruling party are also at liberty to vote in a way that does not always have to be predetermined by their parties. And this … assumes that the ruling party would generally be opposed to the removal of one of their own.”
Make no mistake, though, even the opposition parties who are pushing for ANC MPs to “vote with their conscience” do not practise what they preach. There have been several examples of DA legislators being axed for defying the party line, and the EFF is disciplining councillors in Mogale City who defied the party and voted with the ANC to pass the municipal budget. This should be instructive to citizens who perceive opposition parties as viable alternatives.
It is clear that the ANC too is increasingly paranoid about the potential for the removal of its president in a motion of no confidence, applying tougher language with each motion to pull its members into line.
Both Khoza and a party man who until now has displayed stoic discipline, former finance minister Pravin Gordhan, have openly said they would vote with their consciences instead of along the party line. There may be others. What Khoza and Gordhan have said they would do is defiance of the highest order of the party they have dedicated their lives to. Their view is that it is defiance of the highest order against our constitutional democracy not to do so.
Civil society is piling on the pressure. Protests outside Parliament and a national day of prayer in the run-up to the motion will add to the pressure on MPs. But it may come to naught, as the motion may not even happen on August 8 in the face of the defiance of National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete. It is widely predicted that she will not allow a secret ballot given her presidential aspirations and the manner in which she has placed the party above her constitutional role as speaker in the past.
Mbete has yet to decide on the matter and may do so at the final hour, which could prompt opposition parties to head back to court to test the rationality of her decision. This is likely to further delay the vote and, contrary to Mbete’s intentions, may even persuade more ANC MPs to vote with their consciences.
Perhaps ordinary South Africans will display their capacity for defiance in 2019, as some started doing in 2016.
• Marrian is political editor.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.