October 16 is World Food Day, and unlike last year, when SA was in the midst of a drought and food prices were on an upward trajectory, this year, there are positive developments.
The most recent data from the International Grains Council show that sub-Saharan Africa’s 2016-17 maize production increased by 15% year on year to 65-million tonnes, a record in a data set dating from the 2000-01 production season. Other crops such as soybeans, sunflower seed and vegetables also recorded a notable uptick, leading to a deceleration in food inflation in countries such as SA, Zambia and Botswana. However, the picture is not all rosy — there are disparities across sub-Saharan Africa.
The uptick in agricultural production was mostly in Southern African countries such as Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and SA.
East African countries suffered agricultural yield losses due to persistent drought during the 2016-17 production season. For instance, Kenya’s food inflation has remained in double digits — 11.5% year on year in September, although it has decelerated from the 21.5% seen in May.
The 2017-18 production season also offers some hope of good weather, particularly in Southern Africa. Recent reports from Zambia’s communication and transport ministry indicate that the country could receive normal to above normal rainfall this summer season.
On a similar note, SA’s weather service forecasts above normal rainfall between November and February 2018 across the summer rainfall areas. SA could again have a good summer crop season.
However, there are still risks that could turn things on their head, most notably the possibility of a return of fall armyworm. The Zambian government has already warned it expects another outbreak and it will be working closely with farmers to manage the situation if it recurs.
For SA, there are reasons for once to be optimistic about the upcoming production season even if fall armyworm does make an unwelcome return. Last season showed us that countries such as Zimbabwe and Zambia had to rely heavily on pesticides and other such measures to mitigate the effect of the pest. SA, on the other hand, experienced minimal crop damage as genetically modified crops proved far more resistant.
More than 80% of SA’s maize production is now genetically modified, which is why the country managed to harvest its biggest crop in history this year — 17.5-million tonnes — despite the worm.
SA is still the only African country that grows genetically modified maize, so it is not surprising that it produced 26% of sub-Saharan maize in the 2016-17 production season while using a relatively small land area of 2.6-million hectares. In contrast, countries such as Nigeria planted 4-million hectares and only harvested 7.2-million tonnes.
This record shows that genetically modified crops not only withstand some pests better than unmodified strains, but also boost productivity. Which brings me to my last point: as we commemorate World Food Day on Monday, we should ask whether it is not time for the rest of Africa to follow SA and embrace technology to boost production and feed itself.
Technology could also translate into lesser use of insecticides, which will reduce farmer’s costs while maximising the yield potential. This will require willingness and participation from both regulators and scientists across the continent.
• Sihlobo (@WandileSihlobo) is head of economic and agribusiness research at the Agricultural Business Chamber.
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