As the euphoria of the dawn of the Ramaphosa era sets in, it is important to remember that in politics, the devil is in the detail — or, in this case, in the Union Buildings. President Jacob Zuma has not been an idle participant in the fight over his demise, which we are slowly witnessing.
Far from a sign of strength, as his moves would have been regarded a year ago, it is clear he is now trying to frustrate the ANC’s newly elected leadership and protect his own interests, and those of his family.
ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa conceded in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation’s (BBC’s) HARDtalk that Zuma was "anxious" about his future.
"A new dawn is on the horizon … there is a new leadership [that] is barely a month old and we are dealing with this matter … obviously the key matter that everyone wants to see addressed is the tenure that President Zuma still has.
"Constitutionally speaking he still has 18 months and within this 18 months, obviously a lot of things can happen. But he and I have agreed that we are going to be meeting regularly to discuss matters … and by definition, we [are] also going to discuss the transition, how long is it going to last," Ramaphosa said.
"He is anxious and he wants matters to be handled in a way that, they should be handled carefully — and I am saying my key interest is to move the country forward — it’s not so much about what happens to an individual."
Zuma’s desire for "careful handling" of his political future is most probably intended to buy time — time for his faction to regroup, time for his fresh representations to the National Prosecuting Authority to lead to the corruption, fraud and racketeering charges against him being dropped, and time for his lieutenants in the state to push his agenda.
Over the past two weeks — and even immediately after Ramaphosa’s election — Zuma moved to counter the attempts to act against him and his rogue administration. The first time was his announcement that he would appeal against the high court judgment ordering him to establish a judicial inquiry into state capture, as recommended by former public protector Thuli Madonsela in her State of Capture report.
This took place a day after the ANC’s national conference, which could certainly be interpreted as an act of defiance since the gathering itself resolved there should be no further delays in establishing the commission.
While Ramaphosa did manage to convince Zuma to establish the commission a day before a special national executive committee meeting of the ANC, the state president left the back door open to continue his appeal against the judgment. Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo admitted to journalists at a media briefing this week that concern about Zuma’s potential appeal against the high court judgment was legitimate. He said he would have his legal counsel close at hand to provide him with opinion on his options should the appeal materialise while the commission was at work.
Unless Zuma concedes and lets go of the appeal, there will continue to be questions over the work of the commission and the validity of its ultimate recommendations. Lest we forget, the point of the application to the high court was the setting aside of Madonsela’s report, which forms the basis of the judicial commission of inquiry as set out in its terms of reference released on Thursday.
Turning to those terms of reference, there are back doors that could allow them to be amended at a later stage, mainly the provision that they could be amended or "varied" at any time. They have also been broadened to include that the probe not only look into tender fraud by the Guptas, but all other individuals, corporate entities and organisations. This is well and good, but Ramaphosa was clear that the probe should focus on the public protector’s report — all other matters could be dealt with by a separate probe.
But Zuma is unlikely to dupe Zondo, who illustrated on Tuesday that he is up to the task and can be trusted.
There are also reports that Ramaphosa suggested that Zuma sought to stall the installation of new leadership at Eskom, despite the fact that the rot in the power utility, coupled with its financial crisis, could spell disaster for the economy. Ramaphosa is rightly being praised for the visible reforms he is effecting after his election as ANC president. He has also stated clearly that his interest is not so much in going after an individual but in doing what is best for the country. There is nothing to suggest he is being insincere on this score.
But the bottom line is that Zuma is still in office, and he is pushing back against his removal, which would clearly be in the best interests of the country. Ramaphosa suggested as much in his interview with the BBC when he said Zuma wanted the matter to be handled carefully.
Perhaps it was Ramaphosa’s narrow victory over Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma that is staying his hand, coupled with a genuine desire to do things properly, which is far removed from our experience over the last presidential term.
In the end, though, despite a sense that SA is coming alive, we are still being held hostage by a rogue administration — one that is tying up its loose ends as we applaud.
• Marrian is political editor.
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