Why is it that Jacob Zuma is still in power and shows no sign of going? Did Cyril Ramaphosa believe his own spin that the unity of the ANC is paramount?
The miracle of the ANC conference, he told us, was that while two warring factions went to conference, "the branches" wisely voted for unity, choosing the optimal mix of both factions. This was a sign that the membership wanted the leadership to work together and this they would do.
Like all of us, he knows that is not actually what happened. What happened was that Gauteng leader Paul Mashatile and Mpumalanga leader DD Mabuza had always hoped to cut a deal that would see them both voted into the top six. When Ramaphosa realised, on the eve of voting, that he did not have the numbers without Mabuza, he bought in.
The result was a top six in which the Mabuza-Mashatile axis held disproportionate power. In an attempt to dilute this, when it came to the election of the national working committee Ramaphosa formed an alliance with the hard core of the Zuma faction.
The consequence was that we now have on the national working committee two people — Bathabile Dlamini and Nomvula Mokonyane — who are among those who most need to be fired from the Cabinet for a clean-up of government to take place.
These dynamics show up the fantasy of ANC unity. They also point to another possible reason why Zuma is still in the Union Buildings. They show that Ramaphosa at this point is a far less powerful ANC president than Jacob Zuma ever was.
Which of these is the dominant factor is hard to say. But with no timelines set for Zuma’s departure, it now seems to be the case that there is a blockage in removing Zuma from office.
Ramaphosa has told us several times that this is a "delicate matter" that has to be dealt with carefully. To the public his message is that his key concern is ANC unity.
In choosing not to push for the removal of Zuma at the first national executive committee after the conference, Ramaphosa perhaps thought he could achieve more by being soft on Zuma, which would enable him to get his supporters behind him in a genuine unity drive. Added to that was what had been going on in the background since November: investigators from the Hawks were finally getting moving. According to several people with knowledge of what occurred, lower-level investigators who had been frustrated were hoping for a Ramaphosa win, or at least decided to hedge their bets should there be regime change after December.
But the slow, soft approach is not unfolding quite like it should. After a week with Ramaphosa in Davos, things have changed. Attitudes of those in the Zuma camp have hardened. The fight back is on
At about the same time, the banks and the Treasury started to get requests for documents and material related to state-capture investigations.
Ramaphosa would definitely have known that the Asset Forfeiture Unit had already moved — before the ANC conference began — on corruption related to Eskom and Trillian, and on the Vrede dairy farm/wedding money laundering scam. With these things in motion, it was hoped that some of the clean-up could be done by allowing the law to take its course, without a showdown that would threaten ANC unity.
But the slow, soft approach is not unfolding quite like it should. After a week with Ramaphosa in Davos, things have changed. Attitudes of those in the Zuma camp have hardened. The fight back is on.
On Sunday, ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule told an ANC meeting that only factional and populist leaders wanted Zuma gone. His deputy, Jessie Duarte, said the media narrative about Zuma leaving was overblown as only eight out of 80 national executive committee members had expressed the view that he should depart early.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking. Eskom has been saved for now through urgent action by Ramaphosa and the Treasury. But the payment of grants is far from sorted as the Department of Social Development drags things out, placing obstacles in the way of the banks and the South African Post Office in taking over the payments.
The South African Revenue Service (SARS) is in serious trouble. The promise by Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba in November that Zuma would conduct an inquiry into SARS was stillborn. Jonas Makwakwa, Tom Moyane’s second-in-command at SARS, is back, having escaped scrutiny for what looked like a prima facie case of money laundering.
If it is Zuma who delivers the state of the nation address two weeks from now, we will know that power in the ANC has not entirely changed hands.
• Paton is deputy editor.
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