Opposition parties were jolted out of their Zuma-induced slumber in recent weeks, having to rapidly readapt to a changing political landscape.
The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC president was followed quickly by a change in tone in the governing party.
The shift became more palpable when, just a month-and-a-half into Ramaphosa’s term, former president Jacob Zuma was recalled by the ANC and resigned from office.
The rapidity with which events unfolded left opposition parties reeling.
The DA and EFF, in particular, appeared positively bewildered in those historic five days, beginning with the ANC national executive committee meeting and culminating in Ramaphosa’s maiden state of the nation address.
Now, less than a month before its elective conference, the DA has to orientate itself to the changing political realities while dealing with serious, self-inflicted crises. The gathering is being billed as a "battle for the soul of the DA".
That the party’s own research is painting a bleak picture of its potential support in 2019 is hardly a surprise. Reasons for this notably include its handling of the drought in the Western Cape and the controversy around Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille.
As Zuma was resigning from office, the DA was bringing a motion of no confidence in De Lille.
The strategic blunder of failing to factor in the possibility of a Ramaphosa win and then the reaction when he did brought to the surface a long-simmering battle in the opposition party. It is culminating in intense pressure on party chief whip John Steenhuisen to compete for the position of federal executive chairman, taking on one of the most powerful figures in the DA, James Selfe.
Pressure is also now piling on Selfe not to stand for the post as Steenhuisen has indicated publicly that he would not contest if Selfe was in the running.
Former leaders of the party have indicated that they are concerned about the "direction of the party".
The debate about "direction" is often between the "purist", largely liberal English-speaking faction and the more "progressive" faction, which includes its "black caucus".
The concern is also about the operational side of the party. There is a sense that staff wield too much power. This emanates from the tight grip that technocrats have on the running of SA. They are often driven more by the demands of funders than the views of activists on the ground or the overall mood of the country.
Those wanting Steenhuisen to stand are concerned that the operations side of the party, particularly CEO Paul Boughey, wrongly advised DA leader Mmusi Maimane to release a statement after Ramaphosa’s election pronouncing the ANC dead.
Steenhuisen resigned from the national campaign team due to this, as his perspective was for a more nuanced approach.
It is felt that should he take over from Selfe he would be in a position to take a tough stand against strategic blunders cooked up by the operational side of the party — including by Boughey.
The CEO position is a powerful one and critical to the overall direction of the party.
It is envisioned that if Steenhuisen runs and wins, Boughey could be pushed out. One prospective replacement is Gavin Davis.
Tshwane mayor Solly Msimanga is also set to take on Athol Trollip for the powerful post of federal chairman. Should Msimanga succeed in this, it will also be a game-changer for the party.
Who Maimane backs for the post will be instructive. Trollip was his running mate when he was elected leader in 2015, but questions would be raised over his commitment to party transformation should he fail to back Msimanga.
Meanwhile, the results of by-elections over the past two weeks are an early indication that opposition parties will have to work harder to counter the ANC. In Soweto, there was a 10% increase in support for the ANC and declines of 2% and 4% respectively for the DA and the EFF.
Elections analyst Dawie Scholtz observed on Twitter that although turnout was low and it was just one ward, this was a "significant deviation" from results in 2017, where there was a 10% swing away from the ANC compared with the 2016 local elections.
Other analysts still see the ANC emerging with about 55% of the vote in 2019, due largely to the divided leadership core elected in December and the already simmering tension caused by this, as well as the manner in which it impedes Ramaphosa from acting decisively against corruption and state capture.
Despite this, opposition parties are in urgent need of a shake-up, particularly the DA, which needs to move decisively to escape the corner where it is pinned and stop shooting itself in the foot.
• Marrian is political editor.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.