Any doubts I had about the massive challenges facing Cyril Ramaphosa as he seeks to impose himself on the ANC and get on with the job of fixing the economy quickly evaporated with the sight of one newspaper headline on Friday. The Mail & Guardian had a picture of the president with the rather provocative headline "Illegitimate president".
It was just the latest in a series of articles detailing the factional battles in the ANC since the national conference in Nasrec, where Ramaphosa triumphed by the tiniest of majorities. Then there’s Jacob Zuma, who seems determined not to follow in former president Thabo Mbeki’s footsteps and step away quietly after his recall by the governing party.
Just in case there was any lingering complacency, Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan warned last week that agents and architects of so-called state capture were fighting back and determined to get rid of the "good guys". It doesn’t take too much imagination to work out who he was talking about.
About four months into its life, a government that came in promising so much, with talk of renewal and new dawns, seems to be already in danger of being marked more by paralysis than bold action.
Gordhan’s announcement on Friday that Eskom’s no-increase offer to its workers was off the table may feed into this narrative.
It’s irrelevant whether one believes the offer was just or not. The more startling thing is how quickly the government caved in. A new board was brought in at Eskom earlier in 2018 with a mandate to clean up the utility and put it on a path to sustainability.
CEO Phakamani Hadebe and his colleagues are unlikely to have taken the task on without the promise of unwavering political support once the tough medicine was applied.
It’s been widely detailed elsewhere how dire the financial situation at the company is.
Despite being the biggest state-owned enterprise with the most potential to destabilise the whole of the government’s finances, Eskom is far from being the only problem child that requires decisive action.
There is also huge pressure on the government to cut the public sector wage bill after the unions won above-inflation increases for several years running. A plan to offer voluntary retrenchments in the public sector is already facing opposition from unions.
It’s irrelevant whether one believes the Eskom wage offer was just or not. More startling is how quickly the government caved in
In the midst of this it is not difficult to see why some of the optimism from earlier in the year is waning. Economic growth is unlikely to reach Ramaphosa’s target of 3% anytime soon.
On Friday Fitch Ratings released modest economic growth forecasts of 1.7% for 2018 and 2.4% in 2019. While it is not fashionable to quote ratings agencies after their failures partly caused the global financial crisis a decade ago, Fitch’s commentary on Friday will hardly be seen as controversial, even by some of their biggest critics. The ratings company cited unemployment and inequality among key risks to the country. It even gave a slightly positive verdict on the debate about land expropriation without compensation, saying the issue will likely be "handled so as to avoid significant economic damage," even if it might "focus" investors’ minds on the more general risks to property rights resulting from high inequality.
From left to right there seems to be consensus on the main problems the country needs to deal with: deep-seated poverty and unemployment.
The question is how to go about it and how quickly we can get the job done.
One of the more constant criticisms I’ve heard of Ramaphosa is that he is seemingly more preoccupied with managing the ANC than the country.
That seems unfair to me as it’s not clear how he can govern and push his agenda if he isn’t able to unite his own party behind it.
Another is that, apart from the attempt to clean up the boards of state-owned enterprises, the government has lacked bold ideas. The infighting in the governing party makes it unlikely that any will be coming soon, let alone be implemented.
Some people have suggested it may not happen until Ramaphosa has won an election in his own right and affirmed his legitimacy. There was also talk of an early election, which has since fizzled out as the legal and practical impediments became clear.
All of this raises the question of whether we are really experiencing a new dawn, or that uncomfortable twilight period where the old government is a lame duck but its replacement is yet to take control, meaning nothing of substance can happen.
We are in a strange position where the same person could be at the helm of both. Let’s hope that’s not the case because there is a lot to be done and we can’t afford to wait.
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