The DA recently announced its shortlist of premier candidates for the nine provinces ahead of the 2019 elections. There are 31 names in total and the first thing that strikes you about them is just how thin the layer of cream at the top is.
There are no superstars — people with big national political profiles. It is the list of a party stretched to its absolute limit by the 2016 local government elections, and left, it appears, with very few top-flight politicians in reserve.
Many will remember the famous 2011 DA election poster that boasted Helen Zille, Patricia de Lille and Lindiwe Mazibuko standing side-by-side. Happy days.
But all three are gone now; if not literally, then in spirit, and if not in spirit, then clinging on to life by a thread.
Some of those were more manufactured than others but all three were vote winners on a national scale. Today, in Maimane, the DA has only one, what you might call, "premier" national figure. A few people populate Division One. In the likes of Herman Mashaba and Solly Msimanga, the party is in the process of building capacity. But they are not there yet.
After that, as you move down the leagues, it’s a free-for-all. And given that there are nine provinces — thus nine premiership positions — the party’s list looks more like a first round FA Cup draw than the European Championship. It Scunthorpe United versus Grimsby out there.
It’s a relative problem. The DA has always relied heavily on its ability to manufacture national profiles; if not to bring in someone from outside the party. And, of course, actually being in power helps with this sort of thing no end — an advantage the DA has not historically enjoyed. But, even then, as things stand, the choices are now very limited. And it shows.
That is not to say there aren’t good people. Alan Winde has an impeccable record as an MEC in the Western Cape. In turn, David Maynier has done sterling work as the party’s national finance spokesperson and has a significant record of internal party management.
In the smaller provinces, there are a number of old-hands who boast good records. Ghaleb Cachalia is a principled and passionate MP, with much expertise in the private sector. Solly Msimanga has delivered much in Tshwane and is beginning to augment his reputation as an agent of positive change. These people would all be capable premiers.
But Helen Zille they are not.
Solly Msimanga’s decision to stand gives the game away. When you have to redeploy a recently elected metro mayor to the premier list, in office for no more than two years, in order to counter the lack of big-name recognition on offer, you have a problem.
It is, admittedly, a political more than a competence problem, but Gauteng and the Western Cape account for 62% of all DA national votes, and a high-profile candidate has the potential to provide a critical bump in support.
Put another way, if Mmusi Maimane were standing as Gauteng premier, he would bring with him a built-in favourability rating none of the other potential candidates could compete with. And that stuff would be like gold dust in the province on which much of this election will turn. A percent here or there could be what it all boils down to.
So the DA now finds itself in a situation where beggars must be choosers. For obvious reasons, Gauteng and the Western Cape are the most important. Let’s focus on them.
First, a bit of context. The national powers-that-be in the DA have never got a candidate they did not want. The party feigns federalism but the truth is, these things are fairly carefully managed. The selection panels, which will sit in about three weeks’ time, will be split 50-50 between the respective province and national, and you can be fairly sure the national will be what prevails in each case.
That will be hardest to ensure in Gauteng, a province split between more traditional liberal types and a more pragmatic social democratic grouping, which tends towards replicating rather than distinguishing itself from the ANC in all matters other than corruption and maladministration, and towards putting race at the heart of its analysis.
Cachalia, as he did when he took on, and lost to, John Moodey for the provincial leadership will no doubt carry the liberal flag. Msimanga will effectively be a compromise candidate and national’s first choice — he has the biggest profile of all of them.
It costs big money and much time to build someone up to Maimane’s level. Just ask Maimane himself. He had to lose as the DA mayoral candidate in 2011, and, with R100m and the Gauteng’s premiership candidacy in 2014 behind him, it was only after he had lost that too that he could credibly stand as parliamentary leader, and then national leader.
Whether Msimanga is a comprise candidate is a matter for debate but his public profile, such as it is, will be one of the most powerful arguments for him.
In the Western Cape there are three "big" names: Winde, Maynier and Bonginkosi Madikizela. Winde and Maynier are cut from the same ideological, liberal cloth. Madikizela, a former ANC supporter, is historically from the other side of the aisle.
Helen Zille, the outgoing premier, is likely to favour Winde, as a "continuity candidate" and the least likely to make any fundamental alterations to the nature of the administration she has established. She still wields much influence in the province.
Maynier, much like Cachalia in Gauteng, will have an ideological purpose to his campaign, as well as a supplementary vision for the province. But he, too, is likely to come up against a national preference for a more established candidate in the province, and MECs bring with them a certain prestige, justifiable or not.
Madikizela will bring with him the weight of the provincial leadership, which can be telling. It would be usual for a party to choose someone other than the provincial leader for the premier candidacy and, if it does go for someone else, it would be understandable if Madikizela asks some serious questions about what that means for the party’s confidence in his leadership.
Noticeable in his absence is Ivan Meyer. It is likely he has done a deal of sorts. He is hardly the world’s most charismatic personality but he does have significance influence in the Western Cape and, being coloured — the kind of thing the DA worries greatly about these days — would have established him as one of the main contenders.
Outside of those names, in both Gauteng and the Western Cape, are a range of people with below-the-radar profiles, who are no doubt using the opportunity to try to establish themselves as national players — the likes of Makashule Gana and Refiloe Ntsekhe, for example.
Maimane’s candidature for both Johannesburg mayor and Gauteng premier put pay to any argument that experience matters too much for the DA and is in part responsible for the wide range of names put forward. Gana enjoys some significant influence in Gauteng but, outside of that, boasts little expertise. Likewise Ntsekhe.
Apart from them, there are a range of names — nine between the two provinces — you would be hard pressed to say you had ever heard before. All the democracy and transparency is to be welcomed of course, but it’s a brave person who wants to run one of two of the biggest economies in Africa from nowhere. Perhaps the upside is that the DA doesn’t lack for ambition.
One of the contributing factors to this situation is party’s inability to sustain the sorts of positions that can produce politicians with big national profiles. Its youth and women leagues, for example, were only recently reconstituted — before that, they operated essentially as shell organisations. It has had four national spokespeople in three years, to varying degrees of success. And its local governments have swallowed up a lot of potential talent.
At the same time, the election of Maimane, championed as the party’s first black leader, has seen the organisation pour a disproportionate amount of time and money into his profile and programme alone, as the DA’s defining metaphor and ahead of other national representatives, who are hidden away. Finally, it has driven away other talent — most obviously, the likes of Wilmot James and Mazibuko.
The long and short of it is this: the DA’s statement, announcing this list, says: "Our aim is to end up with candidates who will take our offer to the voters and represent their interests."
As things stand, the DA might be able to bring the ANC below 50% in Gauteng. It is an outside bet. It is far more likely to win the Western Cape, probably with a reduced majority. It will be looking to change those odds, by running a sustained campaign — almost a year in length — and by bringing an end to all the internal distractions it has suffered in 2018.
But even if it does that, it is going to have to rely on Mmusi Maimane more than ever before. It would be a mistake to describe the DA as a "one-man show"; but when it comes to top-level players, it does seem to have only one political superstar.
Much of that is the DA’s own doing. But it could prove to be the difference in provinces such as Gauteng. On those list are definitely a range of people who can "take our offer to the voters and represent their interests", but how well they are able to do that is another question, given the limited amount of time the DA has to transform them into household names.
The DA’s 2019 campaign is going to be all about one man: Mmusi Maimane. That is a big weight to carry on his shoulders.
• Van Onselen is the head of politics and governance at the South African Institute of Race Relations
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