The ANC continues to function in limbo as a key election looms. It appears that the centre is not holding, with chaos in the provinces, a secretariat at odds with the rest of the top six leaders and an alliance in tatters.
While this is not new — the top six leaders, provinces and the alliance have long been heavily divided — there was an expectation of some improvement after the election of new leadership at Nasrec that promised a new beginning.
However, it is clear from the events of the past six months that renewal or reform of the ANC remains as elusive as it was under Jacob Zuma, mainly due to the mixed slate elected at the December conference.
At a national level, aside from the Thuma Mina campaign launched with ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa at its centre, there seems to be little being done in the governing party towards renewing its structures — or repairing its damaged relationship with the electorate.
Dispute committees are hard at work trying to iron out deep divisions that halted the ANC elective conference in its largest province, KwaZulu-Natal.
At the same time, Zuma is openly mobilising against the party in the same province. Provinces linked to his old allies and one linked to his foes also pose a risk for the ANC — Mpumalanga, Free State and Gauteng. Electorally, these provinces are risky for the ANC after all three lost their strong-men leaders to the national leadership at Nasrec. After decades running the party in these provinces, the departure of David Mabuza, Ace Magashule and Paul Mashatile has left a vacuum — on the cusp of a critical election.
There is also now internal jostling to replace the premiers and cement new factions in these provinces. The situation in provinces formerly led by Zuma allies may deteriorate and the party might suffer at the polls, as Zuma’s faction seeks to punish Ramaphosa for Zuma’s removal as state president or weaken him ahead of the next national general council.
Ramaphosa quickly acted on shake-ups in the state, appointing a new Cabinet, moving in to repair ailing state-owned entities and clearing the state of key elements of the state-capture architecture.
But on the ANC front, the president has done little to renew or revive the moribund organisation. It is business as usual, barring a few new posts created at Luthuli House.
As under the previous leadership, the secretary general — now Magashule — sings from a different hymn sheet while his deputy, Jessie Duarte, continues to blame the media for all the ANC’s woes.
Just like the previous term, the deputy president, now David Mabuza, remains silent and largely in the shadows when it comes to party work.
Unlike the previous president, Ramaphosa’s attention is on the state and getting it to run efficiently. But to Ramaphosa’s detriment (unlike his predecessor), he has done little to consolidate or assert his power within the party.
The removal of Supra Mahumapelo as North West premier was a feat, but Mahumapelo is far from neutralised politically in the province as he remains the party chairman.
This is deeply problematic and is already being interpreted as a weakness.
The long-awaited political council took place this week, with promises from the ANC to embark on a journey with its allies to "reconfigure" their relationship.
But their wordy statement was filled with platitudes, repeating common, unfulfilled features of alliance statements over the past decade. It is difficult to take the statement seriously when the meeting was convened more than six months after the election of the new ANC leadership — this after the allies had been calling for it for almost a year before the Nasrec conference.
The South African Communist Party (SACP) has already contested elections in Metsimaholo and has said that should the ANC not agree to "reconfigure" the alliance to accord its partners influence over key decisions, it will implement its conference resolution to contest future elections on its own.
The ANC is unlikely to accede to the SACP’s demand for power over deployments — in essence, the spoils of power. It can barely share these fairly and successfully among its own members, let alone members of a separate organisation.
This means that if the SACP has the courage, a split on the left of the ANC is still likely.
However, it will not go the distance under leaders such as Blade Nzimande and Senzeni Zokwana. The SACP too needs a "new dawn" to really change its trajectory.
The risk of a split was always there for the ANC and this is why the party has emphasised unity above all else in the aftermath of Nasrec.
But the party has elevated its unity rhetoric over any real attempts at reform.
The very split the party fears may already have occurred, but it just doesn’t know it yet, or does not want to acknowledge it because, frankly, once again, the ANC is asleep at the wheel.
• Marrian is political editor
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