It would now seem to be common cause that the EFF operates as the ANC’s political conscience, essentially forcing it into key positions through external pressure. Expropriation without compensation has become a defining metaphor for this sentiment.
However, what is not understood is why the ANC has reacted in the manner it has to the pressure applied to the EFF. If expropriation without compensation is indeed the political dynamite the EFF claims it is, then you would think the party, being the champion of the idea in its most radical form, would also be experiencing a huge surge in support as, presumably, expropriation without compensation resonates powerfully with voters; hence the ANC’s acquiescence.
But an analysis of the EFF’s performance in all 37 by-elections to be held in 2018 — all since Cyril Ramaphosa took over both the ANC and South African presidency in December — suggests no significant growth for the EFF.
What follows is an in-depth analysis of the EFF’s by-election performance in 2018. At the heart of the analysis is this table, in which all 37 by-elections the EFF has contested in 2018 have been amalgamated into one graphic. In the last four columns on the right, the EFF’s requisite performance in the 2016 local government elections is listed in each case, in order to be able to draw a comparison.
TABLE 1: All 2018 EFF by-Elections versus 2016 election results
Finally, before getting into the table, just by way of setting the scene, this is how the EFF performed in the 2014 national and provincial elections and the 2016 local government elections.
• 2014: 6.35% (1,169,259 votes)
• 2016: 8.24% (1,228,949 votes on the proportional representation ballot)
Here are the headline findings from the EFF’s 2018 by-election performance:
• The 37 by-elections include six from Gauteng (five in Johannesburg and one in Tshwane); six in the Western Cape; five in the North West; six in the Eastern Cape (including one in Nelson Mandela Bay and two in Buffalo City); seven in KwaZulu-Natal (including one in eThekwini); two in Limpopo; three in Mpumalanga and two in the Free State.
• If one adds up all 37 by-elections results for 2018, you get a total of 3,218 votes cast for the EFF out of a grand total of 89,763 votes cast. That translates into an overall percentage in all 2018 by-elections of 6.1%.
• For the same set of 37 wards in 2016, the EFF secured 7,505 votes out of a grand total of 148,311 votes cast, for an overall percentage of 5.1%.
• If one amalgamates the EFF vote for each province, you get the following combined percentages for the EFF (the comparative 2016 numbers are in square brackets):
-Gauteng (six): 7.4% [5.9%]
-Western Cape (six): 0.9% [0.6%]
-North West (five): 24.9% [12.5%]
-Eastern Cape (six): 2.5% [2.9%]
-KwaZulu-Natal (seven): 1.6% [1.8%]
-Limpopo (two): 13.5% [14.1%]
-Mpumalanga (three): 7.9% [9.6%]
-Free State (two): 5.0% [6.9%]
Some methodological disclaimers
There are a few necessary disclaimers before we turn to an analysis of those numbers. First, this is not a representative sample and so one cannot say the EFF’s support actually stands at 6.1% nationally, only that this is the total one gets from its 2018 by-election results.
Second, even within the by-election framework, these are small samples. Even smaller still when you only have two or three by-election results (in places like Limpopo and the Free State) to analyse. Likewise, one lopsided result in a populous province, say Gauteng, could skew the overall result. So, one should bear that in mind when weighing up the numbers.
Third, the table uses the total votes for each ward. But in any by-election, a ward is actually made up of several voting districts (the number of voting districts in each ward is listed in the table). There are more insights to be had if you break these ward totals down to district level (because there are important variations in support at this level), but frankly that is a monumental amount of work and the wards are a helpful enough general guide to performance.
No significant growth in EFF support
What can one say about those numbers? First, it is quite clear there has been no explosion in EFF support, outside of the North West, where it has grown significantly from 12.5% to 24.9%. The EFF’s problem is that there are not a lot of voters in the North West, and so that growth has little effect on its national percentage.
Second, the EFF has grown a small but significant amount in Gauteng, from 5.9% to 7.4%. This is important for exactly the opposite reason: Gauteng is SA’s most populous province and so even a small percentage increase equates to many more actual votes, and that no doubt helped drive up the EFF’s national percentage from 5.1% to 6.1%.
Third, in a number of significant provinces, the EFF has regressed. It is down in the Eastern Cape (2.9% to 2.5%) and KwaZulu-Natal (1.8% to 1.6%) for example. As an aside, the EFF’s battle to break into the KwaZulu-Natal market might well be one of the reasons it has turned to racial scapegoating and the denigrating of Indians, in typically EFF-style, to try to generate some kind of prejudiced or ethnic appeal.
There is one final analytical point worth making, and it concerns turnout. The table lists the turnout percentage for all the 2018 by-elections and, to the right, all the comparable 2016 ward elections. From it, there appears a remarkable correlation between low turnout and higher EFF support. Indeed, you can say almost without fail, with regard to the 2016 local government elections: where turnout drops below 60%, the EFF’s vote spikes.
Every block marked green on the table is one where turnout dropped below 60%.
What does this tell us? For one, that the EFF thrives in those wards where voter apathy and therefore discontent is highest. In other words, the EFF performs best in those areas where the ANC (typically) has failed to deliver and, rather than switching sides, ANC voters simply stay away.
We can test this theory by splitting the table into those 2018 by-elections that took place in metros (10) and those that took place outside metros (27). Here are the two relevant tables.
TABLE 2: 2018 Metro EFF by-election results versus 2016 election results and TABLE 3: 2018 Provincial EFF by-election results versus 2016 election results
In 2016, in the metros, the ANC’s vote was suppressed, due to performance unhappiness, and the opposition’s vote surged (due to a credible "your vote can win it" message). So, turnout in the 10 metro wards in 2016 was incredibly high. In fact, Table 2 shows just three metro wards where turnout dropped below 60%. And guess what? In all three the EFF vote spiked: 17.2% (turnout: 54.2%), 12.4% (turnout: 45.0%) and 10.1% (turnout: 49.5%). The EFF’s combined metro percentage in 2018, is 5.1%.
Outside of the metros, in the provinces, turnout generally dropped across the board, which you can see by just how many green blocks there are for the 27 wards in 2016. And so, the EFF tends to do better. The EFF’s combined provincial percentage in 2018 is 6.9%.
Again, this is not scientific. There are great fluctuations inside each of these wards (for example, one district in a ward maybe a township, in which the EFF does very well; another may be suburban, in which the EFF does poorly). Nevertheless, there are other data to suggest EFF support generally becomes more rural and less urban.
For example, in the 2014 national elections, 38.6% of all EFF support came from Gauteng. In 2016, that figure dropped to 32.5%.
At the same time, in the 2014 national elections, 32.8% of all EFF support came from Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the North West combined. In 2016, that figure jumped to 36.7%.
It is difficult to apply the turnout thesis to the 2018 by-elections, because turnout is almost always, as a rule, very low for all by-elections (people simply don’t take them as seriously as national elections). So, if you look at the turnout out column for the 2018 by-elections, almost every single one of them is green. This might be another plausible explanation for the EFF’s comparative improvement from 5.1% in 2016 to 6.1% in the 2018 by-elections.
What this all means
The EFF has driven expropriation without compensation as its primary and fundamental issue all through 2018. On the back of that, it has bent the ANC, even if to a limited degree, to its will. The ANC clearly believes expropriation without compensation an absolutely critical issue for South African voters.
But that belief does not seem to actually bear out when it comes to the EFF’s actual performance in 2018 by-elections. Using those as a gauge, the party has demonstrated some small growth (up from 5.1% to 6.1% comparatively) but nothing significant and, in fact, in a number of provinces it has actually shrunk.
In short, the EFF, the political flagbearer for expropriation without compensation, has not been able to translate its message on land into a significant growth in electoral support, throughout 2018. Using 2018’s by-elections, there is simply no evidence that expropriation without compensation leads to any meaningful increase in votes.
It is true that by-elections are heavily influenced by local issues and conditions, and one should take that into account, but if expropriation without compensation really is the sort of political dynamite the EFF and ANC seem to believe it is, it would still resonate at local level as a powerful motivating influence behind any vote for the EFF. A recent Ipsos poll — the only contemporary piece of market research we have on current party political support — puts the EFF on 7%. It, too, had its limitations but would seem generally congruous with the party’s 2018 by-election performance
If the EFF’s 2018 by-election performance is any indication of its actual electoral pull and the effect of expropriation without compensation on voters, it doesn’t seem to be having a powerful effect at all. That, in turn, forces one to ask what it is, exactly, that the ANC fears so much?
This analysis does suggest that if the ANC were able to reanimate all those voters who have become alienated from the party and drive up its turnout, it would do much to drive down the EFF’s performance (it needs ANC voter apathy to thrive). The ANC might have concluded that expropriation without compensation was the way to do that. Then again, turnout levels haven’t risen for anyone — ANC voters remain has disillusioned as ever — so that wouldn’t seem to explain it either.
One thing is for sure, based on those 2018 by-election results to date, the EFF is going to be hard pressed to break 10% in the upcoming elections. Its results might not be scientific or predictive but they are a powerful anecdote. Based on it, if the EFF does break 10%, it will be a truly remarkable achievement.
• Van Onselen is the head of politics and government at the South African Institute of Race Relations.
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