GARETH VAN ONSELEN: Who asked Mmusi Maimane to stand as premier?

Here is the question: Why did DA leader Mmusi Maimane consider standing for the Western Cape premiership? Maimane claims he was asked to stand by someone in the party. When asked by the media if that was true, he refused to answer; or at least, fudged his answer so profoundly it was incomprehensible. Thus, based on the public record, his explanation is very difficult to believe.

There is no reason not to disclose that information. In turn, if he was asked, there is no reason the persons who asked cannot admit to that fact. But, to date, not a word, prompting the question: Do they even exist?

The result of the mess that has followed has been yet further damage to the DA’s brand as a cohesive, unified force. There is a big story here. Indeed, the whole saga around Maimane’s candidature has not been properly told. On telling it, it is quite clear Maimane, personally, has a case to answer, to the public and the party. Here is what happened.

At some point, Maimane decided he would rather stand as the party’s Western Cape premier candidate. It is unclear why he made this choice but there is absolutely no evidence he was asked to stand by the party or the Western Cape

When applications opened for the Western Cape premiership, six DA members put their names forward. The three big names were: Alan Winde (an MEC in the Western Cape government), David Maynier (the DA’s national finance spokesperson and MP), and Bonginkosi Madikizela (also a Western Cape MEC and the party’s provincial leader).

In addition, three other people stood: Fazoolien Abrahams, Michael Mack and JC MacFarlane. Each candidate was required to appear before the Western Cape selection panel and fulfill a number of tasks, to be scored out of 125. First, a written assignment (45 points); second, an interview (50 points); third, an assessment of their “campaign involvement” and performance record (30 points); and, finally, an assessment of their “electability” (5 points).

After having all presented to the selection panel, the candidates were ranked. The final scores were:

2. Alan Winde: [1.] 30 [2.] 35.18 [3.] 24.21 — 89.39
4. David Maynier: [1.] 28 [2.] 34.5 [3.] 24.31 — 86.81
6. Bonginkosi Madikizela: [1.] 26 [2.] 36.72 [3.] 21.84 — 84.56
8. Fazoolien Abrahams: [1.] 21 [2.] 12.9 [3.] 0 — 33.90
10. Michael Mack: [1.] 16 [2.] 10.61 [3.] 0 — 26.61
12. JC MacFarlane: [1.] 14 [2.] 12.5 [3.] 0 — 26.50

In short, the DA Western Cape premier selection panel ranked Alan Winde first, David Mayiner second and Bonginkosi Madikizela third. Its recommendation to the party was that Winde be the premier candidate and that recommendation was forwarded to the party’s federal executive for ratification. 

Replacing Winde

At some point, Maimane decided he would rather stand as the party’s Western Cape premier candidate. It is unclear why he made this choice but there is absolutely no evidence he was asked to stand by the party or the Western Cape, and he has been unwilling or unable to provide any evidence to the contrary. Likewise, there is no evidence he consulted the party beforehand. This was a last-minute call.

The reasons for his decision are likely one of the following:

• First, it was an entirely personal choice, in which a range of personal considerations might have played a factor: a high-profile position to fall back on should the election go badly and he lose his leadership; a bigger salary; experience in government; and other such benefits of the position.

[Alan] Winde sent the federal executive a legal letter threatening action if the reversed list was not rejected in favour of the original. And he was likely right, too

• Second, it was a strategic choice, recommended to him by party strategists (in other words staff as opposed to public representatives), which would have been done, presumably, to try and shore up the black vote in the Western Cape, in an attempt to boost the DA’s national numbers (evidence suggests this a mistaken assumption, and a white candidate by no means excludes the possibility of growth among black voters in the Western Cape).

• Third, perhaps some consideration about factionalism in the Western Cape and the idea that, as an outside candidate, he would bring with him a unifying influence on the party in the province. This would also seem to be a mistaken assumption because all evidence is, if he had imposed himself on the province, it would have engendered a nuclear fallout. Indeed, even his withdrawal has not negated a substantial backlash. Alternatively, he might have believed that the candidates did not meet with his approval. This would be incredibly difficult to understand because, with the likes of Winde and Maynier, there were some outstanding names on the list.

There is an outside chance that a public representative did ask him, but it is incredibly low, primarily because that person would have had to represent a significant block in the Western Cape (making it more difficult to explain the total failure of anyone to admit to it).

The reality is most likely a combination of the first and second options: some self-interest and the party’s electoral strategists trying to shore up as much support as possible, in the face of polling that suggests the DA is going to struggle to grow in 2019. It is disturbing, indeed, if staff, without any consultation with public representatives, can cause the DA leader to behave in this fashion.

It is important to elaborate on this point, as its significance might be lost on the public. Maimane is increasingly becoming an island, entire unto himself, largely directed by the party staff machinery as opposed to party structures. You cannot lead a political party in this fashion, it causes great internal resentment. Any political party is a collective; it works by consensus and consultation. Staff have an important role to play in that process, but if they come to effectively usurp the role of public representatives, that is a recipe for internal disaster.

The result of all this was that the announcement of the Western Cape candidate was delayed, and several urgent federal executive meetings were called to discuss internal developments.

Flipping the ranking

After news of Maimane’s intention to stand broke in the Sunday Times, in possibly the most outrageous and under-reported part of the story, the Western Cape selection panel decided to meet again and, in an attempt to counter the pseudo-explanation surrounding Maimane’s intention — that the party needed a black candidate — took the remarkable and highly questionable decision to reverse their list.

They flipped the ranking and put Madikizela number one. Then resubmitted the list to the federal executive. It is worth bearing in mind that the resistance to the idea was not merely provincial. The selection panel comprises 10 provincial and 10 federal members, and the decision seems to have been almost unanimous, suggesting much unhappiness at both levels.

Whatever the ethics of the decision, it cornered Maimane and, with a black candidate now in first position, it nullified the public justification for his meddling.

But you cannot just flip a selection list. It is effectively a job interview and there would inevitably be a legal challenge. The DA constitution does allow for lists to be “amended” by the federal executive, but this was a far more profound intervention than mere "tweaking". Winde sent the federal executive a legal letter threatening action if the reversed list was not rejected in favour of the original. And he was likely right, too. The party would quickly realise the new list was going to struggle to stand up to legal challenge.

Maimane himself has been relatively let off the hook by the media. One evasive fudging of the key question and he has never had to properly account for a destructive decision that seems could only ever have benefited him

The leaking of Maimane’s candidature served to decimate what little prospect the idea had of succeeding in the first place. The media and public rounded on Maimane in vicious fashion. And, besides, the idea made no strategic sense whatsoever. Primarily because, if he did have a genuine desire to help the party by being a premier candidate, Gauteng was the place to stand. That is the DA’s primary battleground, not the Western Cape. Then there was the implicit message to voters it conveyed: that the DA had given up on 2019 and is now just trying to look after its own.

Arbitrary response

Getting eaten alive in the media, Maimane claimed he had been asked to stand as premier. He provided no names; no one has come forward; and you can search through the Western Cape leadership until you are blue in the face — you will find no one who endorsed the idea as a good one. The media could have confirmed this by phoning the DA Western Cape leadership and asking them. No one did, however, and since Maimane had fudged his answer to the press, his rationale has been never tested or verified.

The DA’s response, no doubt at the behest of Maimane, to the leaking of both his candidature and the Western Cape selection scores has been not only authoritarian but arbitrary and illegal. The federal executive has mandated the party’s federal legal commission to determine who leaked the information. To this end, if reports are to be believed, it has required all those who received the scores to surrender their electronic devices for forensic analysis.

They, in turn, have told the federal legal commission they will not comply — quite rightly too, it is a total invasion of privacy. That it is arbitrary is also well-evidenced. The DA leaks every weekend. Read any story on internal politics over the past six months and they are loaded with anonymous sources and comment, often disparaging of the party or divisive. But no investigation has ever been initiated into those leaks. No, this was personal for Maimane and he is using the party machinery because he was personally slighted.

All in all, this is story of a party leader who saw an opportunity, at the last moment, to take the DA’s safest and most influential government position for himself; a desire that made no strategic sense; enraged the Western Cape; generated a raft of negative publicity that is still unfolding; and, in its aftermath, has now caused the party once again to turn inward and investigate itself, spreading distrust and internal animosity.

But, for all that, Maimane himself has been relatively let off the hook by the media. One evasive fudging of the key question and he has never had to properly account for a destructive decision that seems could only ever have benefited him. This is not DA leadership, it is ANC-style leadership. And it is disgraceful.

More disgraceful still, the people who sweated blood to establish themselves as contenders for the Western Cape leadership are the ones being investigated. Who worked in the government and for the party; who produced plans and visions for the Western Cape; who stuck to protocol and underwent a grueling selection process — they are the ones who now stand accused.

But not Maimane. No, his hands are clean. He bears no responsibility. And no one seems too interested in determining exactly why he did this, or how he came to the determination that he, above all others, should be the Western Cape premier.

He has a lot to answer for, and he could start with a bit of honesty, by answering the question that underpins all of this: Who asked him to stand for the Western Cape premiership and why? Perhaps the DA, too, should focus on securing the answer to that question from their leader. The least he could do is be forthright with his own people.

• Van Onselen is the head of politics and government at the South African Institute of Race Relations.