In a month, election season will officially begin when the ANC launches its manifesto at a rally in Pietermaritzburg. And, largely due to the chaotic state of the opposition and not the electoral promises the ANC makes, it will return to power, not with a significant majority, but one decent enough to govern.
Then, once more, Cyril Ramaphosa will be faced with the crisis that has come to define his interim presidency: an underperforming economy. As an elected president he cannot defer action on the economy, which has just bounced back from a technical recession.
Surrounded by a youthful, energetic but smaller cabinet, Ramaphosa can restore confidence in the economy by undertaking five critical actions.
First, fudging the land expropriation debate has to stop. When Ramaphosa ousted Jacob Zuma in February, his ascent to power brought much optimism. For the first time in a long while, we had a president who spoke intelligently about the economy. However, this positive sentiment failed to translate into new investment and jobs. This wasn’t necessarily because of the messy mining charter. The main culprit in dampening investor confidence was the land expropriation debate.
Instead of dealing decisively with it, politicians — especially from the ANC and EFF — have mishandled it. Running parallel processes, including task teams, has increased uncertainty instead of ending it. Ramaphosa needs to steer this process to a speedy conclusion instead of seeking to fudge it through expert panels.
Second, he needs to fix the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), especially Eskom. A large part of the problem is the boards of these entities and a lack of clear mandates. Almost a year after the appointment of new boards most are still in a financial mess. As expected, the SABC board has unravelled; SAA is drifting aimlessly with the help of another bailout; and Eskom, the largest of the lot, is an operational disaster. Its ineffectual executive management has had to be told by a politician not to take a Christmas vacation and, yes, to visit its operations.
The new boards, mostly old blood recycled from other entities, are consumed by numerous investigations into their captured predecessors instead of providing strategic direction to generally weak executive teams.
Instead of appointing more task teams and war rooms, Ramaphosa needs to appoint younger and more diverse boards that will clarify the mandates of these SOEs, and get them to contribute to lowering the cost of doing business. Cutting tariffs charged by Eskom, Transnet and the Airports Company SA could help stimulate the economy.
Third, a new productivity compact should be negotiated with public-sector unions. For example, in one Gauteng provincial hospital it took 11 hours to have someone admitted for surgery, and in a Soweto police station, it took hours to open a criminal case. This is ridiculous. Instead of mollifying union allies, Ramaphosa needs to link job retention with clear productivity targets.
Fourth, state capture was enabled by local and international players such as multinational firms, but we have to guard against fanning economic xenophobia. Those found to have played a role in looting public funds should be punished severely. However, we should ensure we don’t tar all foreign firms with the same brush. This could undermine Ramaphosa’s bid to recruit $100bn in foreign direct investment to the economy over the next five years.
Finally, Ramaphosa needs to act on the ticking time bomb this country faces, namely youth unemployment. The sixth administration needs bold and imaginative action to tackle the issue. The launch early in 2018 of the youth employment service initiative by the private sector is a welcome step, which demonstrates that the problem isn’t money per se, but a lack of imagination. The country needs a coherent plan to tackle this problem sustainably.
One of Ramaphosa’s predecessors in the ANC, Oliver Tambo, once counselled his followers: “Comrades, you might think it is very difficult to wage a liberation struggle. Wait until you are in power. I might be dead by then. At that stage, you will realise that it is actually more difficult to keep the power than to wage a liberation war. People will be expecting a lot of services from you. You will have to satisfy the various demands of the masses of our people … in the process, be prepared to learn from other people’s revolutions. Learn from the enemy also. The enemy is not necessarily doing everything wrongly. You may take his right tactics and use them to your advantage. At the same time, avoid repeating the enemy’s mistakes.”
The apartheid regime conscripted white youths mainly to fight the “swart gevaar”, but in the process, white youngsters picked up useful skills they would later use in life. Even though we face no immediate external threat, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to reinstate some form of state-sponsored community service for our youth. After all, the hopelessness of our youth is the biggest systemic risk to social stability.
• Dludlu is a former Sowetan editor.
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