GARETH VAN ONSELEN: The unfathomable depth of the ANC’s denial

There are a great many excellent quotes out there about crises, but let’s go with Antonio Gramsci, who was something of an expert on the subject: “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.”

There is no shortage of morbid symptoms to be found in SA today. The place is a hospice; if not, a graveyard. Death and decay are everywhere. Our infrastructure is collapsing, our institutions infected with some dread disease and our leadership compromised and incompetent.

The Oxford English Dictionary (OED) is more particular. It defines a “crisis” as: “A time of intense difficulty or danger” or “a time when a difficult or important decision must be made”. It speaks primarily to a moment, as opposed to the inevitable symptoms of an age — of an instance when, perched on the precipice, a critical call must be made.

Both definitions are important for different reasons. The first because it describes the grander forces at play — a degenerative epoch of decay; the second because it is specific — a moment that demands action. You can cut it either way, both are ubiquitous in SA today.

Or not. It seems to depend on who you talk to. Few words, for example, have a more binary effect on political parties than the word “crisis”. For opposition parties, it is the stuff of dreams. The more crises, the more pressure on government. For majority parties in power, however, it is the stuff of nightmares. The fewer crises, the more competent one is by definition.

The only other explanation can be rank incompetence (in the sense that the ANC government is incapable of even recognising a crisis) or, more disturbingly, callous indifference and conceit with regards to the consequences. Perhaps both apply

And so, typically, you have an endless stream of claims and counter-claims. The problem with SA and the ANC government is that, over the past 25 years, it has, on many occasions, so exceeded any definition of crisis on any number of issues, the word seems almost redundant.

Life Esidimeni patients being moved to unregistered and incompetent NGOs was, presumably, at some point a crisis. By the time the public got wind of it, it was a massacre. Otherwise there have been crises aplenty. Real, critical moments, to quote the OED, when faced with intense difficulty or danger, a difficult or important decision needed to be made.

No doubt several thousand such moments instantaneously come to mind. Eskom, for example, might as well be a synonym for crisis. The state-owned enterprise (SOE) has been in a state of crisis for well on 15 years now. Crisis after crisis after crisis. Perhaps crises are actually all those rickety old generators produce. Pity we can’t run the national grid off them. We would all be smiling.

But no-one in the ANC government has ever actually acknowledged Eskom is in a crisis. Quite the opposite, in fact. In 2015, former president Jacob Zuma put it like this: “I think we have a challenge, not a crisis”. In 2014, Eskom CEO Tshediso Matona argued: “There is no crisis at Eskom. I think the way Eskom gets reported on creates the perception of a crisis.” And, in a totally lateral take on load-shedding, ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe would try this explanation on for size in 2015: “It’s a crisis of demand exceeding supply. That is a positive crisis.”

Now there is a novel idea: a “positive crisis”. Presumably that is similar to “positive bankruptcy”, in the sense that your spending has exceeded your income.

Truth be told its almost impossible to find anything the ANC will admit to as a crisis. Below this column is a full list of denials. As far as the public record goes, the ANC is crisis-free. Sure, there are “problems” and “challenges”. Or, as the CEO of the Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital put it: “I wouldn’t call it a crisis, because they are trying their best.” But an actual crisis? Never. There is no crisis. Never was. Never will be.

So many and so blatant are the denials, even in the face of profound catastrophe at times, you get the feeling this goes far beyond defensive political rhetoric. The amounts of money involved, the actual human lives at risk in many of these instances, mean the only other explanation can be rank incompetence (in the sense that the ANC government is incapable of even recognising a crisis) or, more disturbingly, callous indifference and conceit with regards to the consequences. Perhaps both apply.

Psychological illness

Whatever, the point is this: if the ANC cannot admit to a crisis, of any sort, to this extent, the depth of its denial now constitutes a profound psychological illness. If you cannot recognise a crisis for what it is, you cannot have a rational discussion about how to fix it. And, perhaps more importantly, you can forget any hope of a response being urgent or immediate. Thus, you have the perfect recipe for sustained degeneration — for crises work like compound interest.

It explains a lot. And it is perhaps also obvious. But helpful, none the less, to see the evidence (as set out below) of the ANC’s inability even to recognise what is reflected back in the mirror. No one wants to call anything that is not a crisis a crisis, and political hyperbole is the bane of public debate, but we are dealing with a series of very real not-semantic issues. These aren’t distinguishable incidents; they are now seamlessly joined together to form one epoch, as Gramsci suggests. South African crises aren’t a moment in time, they are a timeless moment.

There is a unique exception: when the word crisis serves a personal, political agenda. Take, for example, Pravin Gordhan. He, like Ramaphosa after him, would happily use his legitimacy to front for Zuma’s ruinous policies. In 2012, by which time Zuma’s agenda was clear, Gordhan, comfortable enough in his parasitic relationship with Zuma, would deny to parliament that any talk of a crisis was no more the product of pessimistic nay-sayers.

“I think there are too many people outside this country who are making judgment calls on this country who don't understand our history well enough; who don't understand where we come from as a country and as a political culture, and who make negative pronouncements that are out of line. There's no catastrophe that's gonna hit our country at this point in time.”

But there was, obviously. And it did, inevitably. And it engulfed Gordhan himself, unsurprisingly. Now expendable and alienated, he would use his short second stint as finance minister to state in 2016, “There is no doubt about the fact that we are in crisis.”

Nothing better lubricates the political tongue for truth-telling than a threat to personal power or reputation.

The ANC’s 2019 manifesto has a section dedicated to the idea of a “capable, honest government”. It is a lie, of course. The ANC simply cannot afford to be honest, it has been in denial too long and the list of crises is now a crisis in and of itself. The section should be titled: “An incapable, obfuscating administration”. That has a more authentic ring to it.

One day, sometime down the line, denial will destroy the ANC. Unfortunately it is likely to destroy the country too

It is amazing just how many binds President Cyril Ramaphosa is in. There is the “Zuma problem”, of course, where he continues (or, who knows, relishes?) attributing praise and legitimacy to the cancerous former president for the sake of votes. There is expropriation of land without compensation, a bonkers policy he has been forced to lovingly embrace and champion (although, again, maybe he is all on board, who knows?). But then there is also the denial, a hereditary ANC trait he has now inherited.

Of them all, there is a strong case to be made that the denial is the most dangerous. Best case scenario: Ramaphosa himself is not in denial. It’s unlikely, but it matters not. The ANC as an institution is. And that collective state of mind is intricately linked to its own fragile sense of self-esteem. Never mind not being able to talk honestly to the public, the ANC cannot even talk to itself.

One day, sometime down the line, denial will destroy the ANC. Unfortunately it is likely to destroy the country, too. When historians look back, all they will find from the ANC is a litany of minor “problems” and “challenges”. Like the man on fire who, as the flames slowly burn the skin off his face, calmly walks into a chemist and, saying he is feeling a little warm, requests a bottle of sun tan lotion.

No crisis here!

Sassa grant payments

“People say there’s a crisis when there’s no crisis.” President Jacob Zuma; 7 March 2017
“From the outset, I would like to reiterate the assurance of the President of the Republic of SA, Mr Jacob Zuma, that there is NO CRISIS AT THE SOUTH AFRICAn SOCIAL SECURITY AGENCY (Sassa): ALL ELIGIBLE SOCIAL GRANTS BENEFICIARIES WILL RECEIVE THEIR MONEY ON 1 APRIL AND BEYOND. The opposition’s claims that there is a crisis at Sassa is therefore nothing more than a mere self-serving propaganda and political grandstanding of the highest order. They must stop with their scare campaign which has caused public panic and anxiety.” Minister of social development Bathabile Dlamini; March 14 2017

Prasa

“There is no crisis at the Passenger Rail Agency of SA (Prasa), trains are running in all towns, long distance and short distance. There are many programmes we are implementing.” Transport ,inister Joe Maswanganyi; January 23 2018

Safa finances

“There is no crisis at this the South African Football Association (Safa) at all. [The public] starts thinking that there is after we start reading it in newspapers. Of course, they have their own mission to sell their papers.” Safa president Kirsten Nematandani April 30 2013

Bafana Bafana

“I would like to emphasise there is no crisis at Bafana Bafana.” Safa communications manager Dominic Chimhavi; November 27 2014

CSA finances

“We are an organisation that is healthy financially and there is no crisis in as far as our finances are concerned.” Cricket SA (CSA) president Chris Nenzani; September 8 2017

SABC board resignations

“There’s no crisis.” Communications minister Faith Muthambi; June 4 2015
“Of course, there is no crisis.” SABC spokesperson Kaizer Kganyago; July 5 2011

NSFAS applications

“Firstly, there is no shambles or crisis at the National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS).” Higher education minister Naledi Pandor; August 2 2018
“There isn’t a crisis because we have a large majority of students getting NSFAS.” Department of higher education spokesperson Lunga Ngqengelele; August 10 2018

SABC finances

“What crisis is there? I never saw SABC off air. Why you telling this company is in crisis? If Eskom is on crisis, there’s ... what? Load-shedding. So if the SABC is in crisis, we must be off air. Have you ever seen that off-air?” SABC board member Aaron Tshidzumba; July 25 2016

SAA finances and its bailouts

“I am confident that there is absolutely no crisis. A few members of the management resigned, and the company still carried on.” Public enterprises minister Malusi Gigaba; October 162012

Eskom load-shedding, mismanagement and bankruptcy

“I think we have a challenge, not a crisis.” President Jacob Zuma; February 13 2015
“It’s a crisis of demand exceeding supply. That is a positive crisis,” ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe; March 31 2015
“The load-shedding we are experiencing is not a crisis, but it is an instrument used to find a balance between the demand and supply of electricity.” ANC MP Zukiswa Rantho; February 19 2015
“There is no crisis with the supply of coal to Eskom. To say we’re going to have a crisis with coal supplies is a bit rich.” Eskom CEO Brian Molefe; May 14 2015
“I want to say there is no crisis ... there’s no crisis.” ANC MP Dipuo Letsatsi-Duba; November 27 2014
“There is no crisis at Eskom. I think the way Eskom gets reported on creates the perception of a crisis.” Eskom CEO Tshediso Matona; December 8 2014
“I define a crisis as when you’re in a state of turmoil, you’re in absolute panic and you don’t have a clue what to do about it. In that sense, we’re not in a crisis.” Chair of the South African National Energy Association (Nersa) and the African Energy Indaba Brian Statham; February 17 2015
“No, we don’t have an energy crisis in SA … There is no crisis here. We in SA are the only people that seem to always be inventing a crisis where none exists.” Eskom chair Zola Tsotsi; March 11 2014

Johannesburg billing

“No crisis.” Johannesburg mayor Amos Masondo; February 2 2011

Failure to deliver textbooks in Limpopo

“A problem, not a crisis.” Basic education minister Angie Motshekga; June 24 2012

State of SOEs

“There is a claim that our state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are in crisis. That is not true.” Lindiwe Sisulu; August 17 2015

The suspension of Riah Phiyega

“There’s no crisis in the SAPS.” Police minister Nathi Nhleko; November 2 2013

Marikana, firing of Bheki Cele, suspension of Riah Phiyega

“A point of crisis basically means helplessness; you know, dysfunctionality, non-functioning and everything else, and I don’t think that’s where the South African police is.” Police minister Nathi Nhleko; October 16 2015

Basic education

“[The matric result] is worth celebrating, even though we still have challenges ... But there is no crisis.” Basic education mMinister Angie Motshekga; January 3 2013

#FeesMustFall

“It is a challenge, but I wouldn’t call it a crisis. A crisis implies that the situation is so bad that there are no mechanisms to deal with it. There are mechanisms in place.” Minister of higher education and training Blade Nzimande; October 23 2015

Technical recession

“I want to call these challenges not a crisis because before, when we were confronted by these challenges, we overcame them.” Deputy president David Mabuza; September 14 2018

Violence against women

“How do we behave when a neighbour attacks his wife. What do we do? We must condemn violence in its totality. I don’t want to say we have a crisis‚ we have a challenge because then we can confront it.” Minister of women in the presidency Susan Shabangu; August 30 2017

The platinum industry

“It can’t be a crisis.” Mineral resources minister Gwede Mantashe; April 11 2018

Oncology staff shortage at Charlotte Maxeke Hospital

“I wouldn’t call it a crisis, because they are trying their best.” CEO of the Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital Gladys Bogoshi; June 8 2018

Water shortage in the Western Cape

“Stop talking about the water crisis. ‘crisis’ message doesn’t help tourism — ‘It is not a crisis it is a challenge’, as far as tourism goes.” Speaking note for tourism minister Derek Hanekom; June 2018

Zuma’s refusal to resign

“Everything is under control. There’s no crisis.” ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule; February 5 2018

Political assassinations and candidate list/service delivery protests

“People out there look at this as a crisis in the ANC; it is not a crisis, it is democracy at play. We have never heard of processes in other parties, is there any democratic process that we can talk about in other parties?” President Jacob Zuma; June 13 2016

ANC 2016 election decline

“Our loss is an equivalent of a soccer match lost in a penalty shoot-out. That is not a crisis, because the governments that have emerged out of the elections are built on slight majorities, which can collapse at any time.” President Jacob Zuma; November 19 2016

Mass Cabinet resignations

“There is no crisis. Things will be going as normal.” ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe; September 23 2008

State of the ANC under Jacob Zuma

“I wouldn’t say it is a crisis. I will say we are undergoing some challenges in relation to what is happening now.” Police minister Fikile Mbalula; May 5 2017

• Van Onselen is the head of politics and governance at the South African Institute of Race Relations.