President Cyril Ramaphosa will chair his two-day cabinet lekgotla on Wednesday to agree priorities for the next year or, more precisely, for between now and the May election. It’s a tricky time for politicians to take a foreign policy gamble on the eve of the elections, but he should bite the bullet and throw a lifeline to SA’s northern neighbour to stave off an economic implosion.
Ramaphosa has managed to kick the can down the road. This is understandable, but not sustainable — he needs to act, and fast.
A year ago there was much hope of a fresh start in Zimbabwe after the smart coup that ousted longtime leader Robert Mugabe. There have been alarming signs in 2019 that this could be another false start for what once was Africa’s second-most industrialised economy.
Zimbabwe’s new leader Emmerson Mnangagwa started off on the right foot by opening the country to business and promising reforms, especially in the run-up to 2018’s hotly contested elections.
It was only in the aftermath of those elections, which he won with a slim majority, that he showed political ineptitude. Instead of showing leadership by reaching out to the loser, youthful opposition leader Nelson Chamisa, he unleashed the army on the protesters, a response reminiscent of the brute force that came to characterise his mentor’s decades-long misrule of Zimbabwe.
Again, in 2019, when Zimbabweans took to the streets to voice their anger at the growing economic hardship, his instinct was to crush the demonstrations with force that has claimed the lives of more than 15 people (his administration puts the figure at 12).
His political instinct is increasingly worrying. The army, which propelled him to power in 2017, hasn’t returned to the barracks. But Zimbabwe’s problems are bigger than Mnangagwa and his army, and he knows this. They require the intervention of outsiders, especially financiers and neighbours.
In a few days DA leader Mmusi Maimane, who chairs a club of opposition parties in Southern Africa, will pay Chamisa and politician Tendai Biti a working visit to show solidarity and score a few political points against Ramaphosa and Mnangagwa.
Harare has already approached Pretoria for financial assistance. This has, understandably, been turned down. SA doesn’t have piles of cash lying around to prop up repressive regimes. Worse, this is an election year in SA.
Still, the cost of doing nothing could be huge for this country’s economy in the long term. Ramaphosa is correct to call for western sanctions on Zimbabwe to be lifted and to use SA’s soft power to plead Zimbabwe’s case. But this is insufficient to end the suffering of Zimbabweans.
More needs to be done. The tanking of Zimbabwe’s economy over the last two decades or so hasn’t been cost-free to SA’s. Together with SA’s own economic mismanagement, Zimbabwe’s misrule has ensured this economy grows at pedestrian rates without creating jobs, especially for the youth.
What Ramaphosa needs to do is depoliticise financial aid to Zimbabwe. A start would be making clear to Harare that the help is destined for citizens and not the political elite. Ramaphosa should persuade SA banks to join the lifeboat to Zimbabwe.
To provide immediate relief, he needs to consider extending a guarantee for all the key commodities required to get that economy working again. At the rate of the decline, this is practically everything.
A key part of all this is attaching explicit conditions to the Mnangagwa administration, and these must be openly communicated — a departure from the approach adopted by his predecessors.
As well as hastening the pace of the much-promised economic reforms, Mnangagwa should return Zimbabwe to the rule of law. This should start with the prosecution of what he has sought to characterise as rogue elements within the security forces who killed the more than 15 protesters.
His government has struggled to speak with one voice about the recent protests. His colleagues have termed the protests, sparked by Mnangagwa’s announcement of steep rises in fuel prices, as lawlessness to be quelled through force. Mnangagwa has been a bit more level-headed than his hawkish colleagues. After cutting short his overseas investment-seeking trip, he has sounded more reconciliatory and called for national dialogue. This is important, and should take place as soon as possible.
Clearly, Mnangagwa knows he owes his presidency to the army, especially his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga. This, however, cannot be at the cost of human rights. Zimbabwe faces no external threat and the army’s role in domestic peace and stability should be clearly defined. If it means facing down Chiwenga, so be it.
A working Zimbabwe is in SA’s best interests, and SA’s role in achieving this is vital.
• Dludlu, a former Sowetan editor, is executive for strategy and public affairs at the Small Business Institute.
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