Last month I painted a bleak picture of SA’s grain and oilseed crop conditions due to the dryness of the central and western parts of the country. So it is only fair that I present an update after good rains in the first two weeks of February.
Crop conditions have generally improved across the country and are likely to be in good shape for some time as rain forecasts for the next couple of weeks are positive, according to the SA Weather Service. The local weather bureau sees a possibility of above-normal rain over the next two months in summer rainfall areas, which should support the late-planted areas. While this is a welcome development, it is worth noting that this is not a normal rainfall pattern for SA. The crop would typically be maturing around April, but this time things are different due to late plantings after rains were
At the moment two fundamental factors seem to underpin the weather. First is the “interseasonal variation” in rainfall. The country now gets less rain than in the past. SA had an average of 526mm a year for 60 years. However, the recent past has seen a progressive decline in annual average rainfall, with the post-2010 annual rainfall averaging 7% less than over the previous three decades (1970-2010).
Second is the “intraseasonal variation” in which the geographic and temporal distribution of rainfall seems to have shifted over time. Anecdotal evidence suggests a delay in the onset of the summer season. For example, the peak rainfall period in SA was around early October in the eastern regions and from November in the western regions. Recent rainfall patterns have seen a three to six week delay, which translates to a shift in optimal planting dates for summer grain and oilseed, and subsequently the maturing periods.
These weather shifts have been a challenge for farmers in terms of planning their planting periods so they can coincide with peak rainfall patterns, for crops to receive sufficient moisture for seed germination and crop development. Moreover, the nature of a change in rainfall pattern is exemplified by this season’s weather conditions, where rainfall is expected to remain above normal levels until April, compared with March in a typical season.
On a positive note, this will support the late-planted crops, which will still need moisture for development over the coming months. But the key concern for late-planted areas is a possibility of frost later in the season, as that could negatively affect crop yields. In my interaction with a couple of farmers over the weekend this was one of the factors that were flagged as key concerns, particularly in late-planted areas of the Free State and North West.
Overall, the impact of improved weather is illustrated by a widespread decline in Safex grain and oilseed prices from levels seen last month, when there was no clarity whether farmers would be able to plant a meaningful area. On February 15, Safex yellow and white maize prices traded between R2,600 and R2,662 per tonne respectively, down 7% and 14% compared with a month ago.
Looking ahead, the crop could remain in fairly good shape in coming weeks owing to expectations of continuous rainfall. It is important, however, to keep an eye on is first production estimates data for the summer crops and oilseed, which are due for release on February 27. Some crop observers, such as the International Grains Council and US agriculture department estimate that SA’s 2018/19 maize harvest could vary between 10.7-million tonnes and 11.5-million tonnes. A harvest at this level would mean SA would be self-sufficient in the 2019/20 marketing year, accounting for an opening stock from the previous season.
• Sihlobo (@WandileSihlobo) is head of economic and agribusiness research at the Agricultural Business Chamber.
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