The most important story of the election is the huge opposition-party sized hole in the middle of SA politics. Media coverage of each election generates a cliché that claims to explain what happened — in this one it is that the ANC share of the vote dropped more than at any other election. This misses important points.
The election was not about comparing the ANC vote with the last general election — its vote has been declining since Jacob Zuma became president and no-one who follows politics expected it to match its 2014 result. The key political question was whether it could halt a slide in which, during the Zuma era, at each election, whether national or local, the ANC has done worse than at the previous ballot. So, while it is right statistically to compare this general election with the last one, political perceptions were about whether the ANC could improve on 2016’s result.
This is so because the key issue in the election was not how the ANC would do compared with opposition parties but how the result would affect its internal factional battle.
While the governing party did enough this time to show that Ramaphosa and his faction are vote winners and Zuma’s supporters vote losers, the comparison with 2014 does underline its longer-term decline.
By improving on the 2016 result Ramaphosa has led the first improvement in the ANC vote in 15 years. This strengthens his position and makes his re-election at the 2022 ANC conference much more likely.
Why was the election about ANC factional politics, and not who governs? Because the gap between the ANC and the opposition remains huge. It is still 37 percentage points ahead of its nearest rival: in the nail-biting Gauteng contest, it was 22 percentage points ahead of the next contestant. So huge is this gap that analysis became fixated on tiny swings — the “dramatic gains” of the Freedom Front Plus left it with less than 2.5% of the vote while the EFF’s “triumph” was just two percentage points better than in 2016; on its current growth path it will be ready to challenge for national power in 60 years.
The opposition’s poor showing is no longer a result of the ANC’s popularity. While the governing party did enough this time to show that Ramaphosa and his faction are vote winners and Zuma’s supporters vote losers, the comparison with 2014 does underline its longer-term decline. Voters have given the ANC another chance because many believe Ramaphosa can fix the mess Zuma left — but if it does not meet expectations it will continue to decline in the 2021 local elections and beyond.
Even if this happens, the ANC may continue to govern because even if voters have grave doubts about it they have even less regard for the opposition. This was reflected in the lowest turnout at a national election since 1994 — 66%. About 10-million people of voting age are not registered to vote, so 28% of the voting-age population voted for the ANC, 10% for the DA and 5% for the EFF.
While these figures are not unusual around the world, they show that party politics here works for only about half the population. This is not because people are apathetic — South Africans are among the most politically engaged people on the planet. When, as in 2016, people think something is at stake, they come out in numbers. It is because they are not excited by any of the parties: many of the half who do, vote not for the party they like but the one they feel will do least damage.
The ANC is therefore losing its hold, but no other party is a credible alternative. The result is not a strong and growing opposition, but more people opting out of elections. None of this seems likely to change until we see a political realignment and a new party emerges that can challenge the ANC.
• Friedman is research professor with the humanities faculty of the University of Johannesburg.
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