Media reports about its leader’s house and car suggest the DA is unwell. Recent by-elections suggest its illness may be terminal.
Reports questioning benefits Mmusi Maimane received from party donors confirm that there are deep internal divisions within the DA: in our politics, a favoured way of fighting internal battles is to leak damaging material on opponents to the media. But the by-elections show that the problems DA politicians have with each other is nothing compared to those they have with voters.
On September 18 the DA contested five by-elections in the Western, Eastern and Northern Cape and the North West: it lost ground in all. The only one in which it held its own was a suburban ward in Buffalo City, where it declined by only 2%. In the others, it lost 21 to 28 percentage points, losing two wards: to the FF+ in Tlokwe (Potchefstroom) and to the ANC in Cederberg, Western Cape.
These are scary results for the DA. Voters in this country don’t move parties easily — a drop of 21-28 percentage points is probably a post-1994 record. And the losses were spread over four provinces, showing that the DA has a national problem. It is bleeding votes in two directions — white, Afrikaans-speaking voters to the FF+, and coloured supporters to the ANC.
— IT MAY SOON BE WHAT ITS PREDECESSOR WAS 25 YEARS AGO — A PARTY OF THE ENGLISH-SPEAKING SUBURBS ONLY
If this continues the DA will soon be what its predecessor was a quarter of a century ago — a party of the English-speaking suburbs only.
Even if the DA can stem the bleeding, losses this deep and broad must show that it is in crisis. The reason is its failure to deal with the country’s most important divide: race.
Many voices have pointed out the DA has been tying itself in knots since its greatest asset, Jacob Zuma, left the presidency. Unclear what to do next, it has tried to convince voters that on corruption there is no difference between the ANC’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Zuma factions. This has confused matters. It cheers the public protector’s Ramaphosa investigation, while it demands her removal.
But this has little do with the meltdown in voter support: white voters are ditching it because they think it is too sympathetic to black concerns, black voters because they think it does not take them seriously enough (why else move to the ANC?).
The DA has never worked out how to change from a white suburban party to one with a significant black membership courting black voters. When asked to take a clear stand on racial issues, it either chickens out or lands up fighting among itself.
There are three views within the DA on what must be done, all of which place race at the centre. One wants to win back white voters, becoming louder and more extreme on issues that spark white fears. Another wants to champion black concerns more. A third wants the DA to become more “purist”, which means becoming the voice of a small suburban cult that sneers at what 95% of the country think and do.
All three are risky. The first would alienate black voters, the second would do the same to white voters but also may not impress a sceptical black majority. Suburban cults don’t win elections.
So, can the DA get out of its mess? Only if it ditches the fantasy that it will one day win a national election. Its only route into national government is a coalition, and that can happen only if parties supported by black voters can govern with it and retain credibility.
If the DA accepts it will not win a national election it can afford to lose some voter support as it becomes more acceptable to black-led coalition partners.
• Friedman is research professor with the humanities faculty of the University of Johannesburg
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