Most commentators, including me, take the government’s annual crowing about the matric results with a heavy pinch of salt. Conventional wisdom is that 80% of the educational system is dysfunctional and attempts to improve it have borne little fruit.
Recent research, which revealed that 78% of SA’s grade four pupils cannot read for meaning, seems to bear this out. And yet there is at least some evidence, from academic studies and the latest matric results, that the school system is gradually improving.
First, the number of matrics qualifying for university entrance jumped from 33.6% in 2018 to 36.9% in 2019 — from about 172,000 to 186,000 learners. This figure has increased at an annual average rate of 4.3% since 1993.
There was also an improvement in learners’ performance across seven of the 11 subjects that are a gateway to tertiary study. The 2019 pass rate rose by about six percentage points in both business studies and accounting.
This sounds encouraging, but part of the reason for the rise in university entrance passes appears to be because the law was changed in 2018 to do away with “designated” subjects.
Previously, the minimum requirement for university admission was a 50% pass mark in any four of 18 designated subjects. The government revoked this in March 2018 to give all matric subjects equal status, bar life orientation, since the designated list skewed learners away from useful subjects such as computer applications technology.
It was predicted that the change would boost university-entrance passes, which appears to be what has happened. But though it does not lower the entry requirements of specific faculties, it may have started a new negative trend.
Across the 11 gateway subjects, matric enrolment dropped by a combined 65,000 in 2019 in eight subjects, including accounting, maths, physical sciences and life sciences, even though the overall matric cohort shrank by only 8,400 to 504,303 learners. Enrolment rose only in history, geography and maths literacy.
If it is the weaker learners who are bailing out of the more demanding subjects it would explain why pass rates have risen in these subjects. If learners would have failed these subjects anyway then it is preferable that they have dropped out, but it is bad news for the economy, which suffers from a dire shortage of engineers, scientists, mathematicians and accountants.
Most alarming is that the largest drop in enrolment (of about 14,000 learners) occurred in maths. About half of these learners appear to have shifted to the easier subject of maths literacy, but the pure maths pass rate still fell — from 58% in 2018 to 54.6% in 2019.
Viewed this way the 2019 matric marks fail to provide convincing evidence that SA is making solid gains in education — at least at the top end of the scale. However, it is undeniably positive that the number of poor schools in which at least 80% of pupils passed matric has risen from 1,961 to 2,484 over the past two years. This probably explains the improvement in the matric pass rate in several rural provinces.
The government says its interventions are working because of better curriculum documents and training; more focused assessment practices; improved subject knowledge among newly graduated teachers; and because more children have access to quality textbooks and preschooling. The jury is still out on most of these points.
Looking beyond the matric marks to SA’s performance in international tests, academics concede that SA has achieved a fairly large systemic improvement in education over the past 20 years, albeit from a low base.
But it still has not been nearly enough to dent SA’s skills shortage. In fact, roughly half of all young people do not even get a matric and thus leave school without a formal qualification with which to find work. Meanwhile, SA’s vocational training system remains patchy and under-resourced.
In short, though there have been some gains they are not unequivocal. It helps no-one if we delude ourselves into believing we are making great progress in education.
• Bisseker is a Financial Mail assistant editor
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